Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Covington Hamlet, NY

KEY MESSAGES
As of 225 AM EDT Monday...

1. Snow showers will be possible this morning with slick roads as an arctic boundary slides through the region. Unseasonably cold temperatures will continue today into tonight behind the boundary.

2. Mainly dry conditions with moderating temperatures are expected through mid week with possible light showers Tuesday night, though confidence remains on the low side.

3. Quiet weather with near normal temperatures through the end of the work week. Rising chances for showers next weekend.

DISCUSSION
As of 225 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An arctic boundary associated with a swinging shortwave will continue to pass through the region this morning bringing a chance for snow showers around sunrise to parts of the Champlain Valley and central to south-central Vermont. Temperatures will continue to fall until sunrise, and with lingering wet roads, some with slushy conditions across the Northeast Kingdom and mountain passes, slick roads could impact the morning commute today. A few areas of patchy fog are also possible in the eastern Vermont river valleys, evident on satellite, however, any fog is expected to dissipate by sunrise. The boundary will slide through the CPV generally between 7-9 AM this morning with briefly light to moderate snow. A dusting to a few tenths of snow, especially in the higher terrain may be possible, and while snow accumulations will be minimal, given the time of year, some additional impact may be possible this morning.

Following the boundary, moisture profiles dry out quickly with skies trending towards clear by this evening. Temperatures today will struggle to reach 40, with much of the area remaining below 40 due to strong caa with a brisk northwest wind. Feels like temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 30s as a result. Strong radiative cooling is likely tonight with high pressure cresting just to the south of the region. Overnight lows will feel like winter with value sin the teens to low 20s. Some of the colder hollows of the Northeast Kingdom, and especially the Adirondacks could fall as far as the low teens.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mostly dry conditions look to follow for mid to late week this week with limited chances for precipitation. A weak shortwave Tuesday night into Wednesday will pass through the region, which may bring some isolated shower chances across the region, but given the lack of strong forcing and convergence along an associated cold front, shower activity will be limited. Furthermore, daytime relative humidities on Tuesday are expected to be in the 30-40% range which will be hard for showers to overcome by Tuesday night.
Once this boundary slides east, an upper level low will become blocked over the Canadian Maritimes which may lead to some isolated chances for rain showers across the Northeast Kingdom due to cyclonic flow. Models remain on the low side for precipitation in general due to disagreements in the position of the blocked low, however, shower chances cannot be ruled out through late week. Drier conditions in general will become established for Thursday into Friday.

Temperatures will gradually increase back to more seasonable levels by Wednesday/Thursday with highs returning to the 50s, though some isolated locations of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom may remain in the upper 40s due to brisk cyclonic flow. Overnight lows will remain on the chillier side with values in the 30s, and perhaps some upper 20s into parts of Essex County, VT due to closer proximity to the blocked upper low (seasonable lows are in the low 30s for the NEK).

KEY MESSAGE 3: Quiet weather is expected for the end of the work week along with slightly cooler than normal temperatures and periods of cloud cover as a closed upper level low gyres over the Canadian Maritimes. As an upper level ridge over the Great Lakes breaks down and the maritime low shifts east, chances for precipitation increase heading into next weekend, but with low predictability given the evolving pattern and model spread. Highs for the end of the week will be in the 50s, reaching into the 60s on the weekend, with lows 30s rising into the 40s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12Z Tuesday...Numerous snow showers will continue to provide a 30-45 minute window of MVFR/IFR conditions across central and northern Vermont through 14Z. Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period with gradual clearing expected to near SKC by 03Z Tuesday. Winds will mainly be out of the northwest at 5-10kts with brief gusts upwards of 15-18kts through the day, trending calm after 02Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.