Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Covington Hamlet, NY
 | Sunrise 5:02 AM Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 3:07 AM Moonset 7:50 PM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones updated 4/16/2026. Some zones changed. Use Edit if needed.
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Covington Hamlet, NY
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS61 KBTV 130721 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 321 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
As of 319 AM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes have been made at this time. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is a little lower than before but the threat for localized flooding has gone up slightly.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 319 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Strong to severe thunderstorms and localized flooding possible on Sunday.
2. Big pattern change expected to occur Sunday night into Monday with temperatures returning to more seasonable values.
3. Expect widespread rain and unseasonably breezy conditions on Thursday. Near normal temperatures are likely for most of the midweek to late week period.
DISCUSSION
As of 319 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Much quieter weather is expected today with mostly sunny skies allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to upper 80s.
For Sunday, the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms looks to be on track with a strong cold front slated to move across the region Sunday afternoon and through the overnight hours. Forecast model soundings for Sunday afternoon are all over the place unfortunately with some models depicting a modest EML with a strong inversion below it. It's unlikely we would break the inversion the models are depicting if the event plans out as the NAM and NAM3 currently depicts. We should have ample instability around 1000 to 1500 J/kg coupled with deep layer shear in the 50 knot range which would be enough to support some supercell structure if we can get an surface based convection. RAOB sampling this morning will help give models a better handle on the EML and how the upper level pattern is developing which will give us a better handle on how Sunday may play out. The more concerning aspect at this time is the potential for some heavy rainfall. All guidance is showing a plume of deep layer moisture advecting from the Gulf and western Atlantic which will help push PWATs near 1.5" Sunday afternoon. Some models even depict PWATs up to 2.0". The soundings actually look favorable for heavy rain with tall skinny CAPE profiles with a deep warm cloud depth layer. It's possible we could see rainfall amounts of 1-2" in places with even localized higher amounts possible given the convective nature of the event. We have added heavy rainfall wording to the thunderstorms on Sunday as they could become problematic. We will watch this closely and have some better understanding on the potential impacts in subsequent forecasts.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front will push through Sunday night into Monday morning ushering in a much colder airmass. Temperatures will return to more seasonable values for Monday and Tuesday with highs climbing only into the mid 60s to mid 70s. We will be underneath the influence of an upper level trough once again for much of next week which will keep some chances for showers each day with a pool of colder air aloft and several weak disturbances traversing the longwave pattern. None of these showers should be strong as we will be lacking significant moisture and instability.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Focus of the days 4 through 7 period (Tuesday night through Friday night) is on the expected Colorado low expected to develop and track northeastward through the Great Lakes region. This looks like an unseasonably strong system, with the ensemble MSLP through this period roughly 995 millibars, near the 1st climatologically percentile. The member storm tracks are fairly well clustered through Michigan and into central Ontario and Quebec Thursday night. That being said, some interesting differences in timing are noted with the GEPS being quite slow compared to the ENS & GEFS, and the GEFS for the 00Z initialization (latest data)
shifted a bit northward closer to the Grand Ensemble track.
Currently the probabilities of a 24 hour rainfall greater than 1 inch ending Friday at 8 am (rain is most likely from Thursday morning through Thursday evening) are about 25 to 50%, lowest in the northern Champlain Valley and greatest in much of northern New York, especially towards the St. Lawrence Valley and southern portions of the Adirondacks.
A more northward track which would reduce potential for heavier rainfall amounts but lead to greater risk of stronger wind gusts.
While at this time range a broad slight chance of thunderstorms is also reasonable, looking at forecast soundings and the atmospheric environment it appears a low tropopause will limit cloud depths and the near surface temperatures will struggle to warm enough to produce much instability with moist adiabatic lapse rates present.
So at this time, the primary possible hazard looks related to winds, mainly out of the south, during the day on Thursday. The average 24 hour maximum wind gust in the latest NBM provides a conservative 30 to 35 MPH range for much of northern New York and the Champlain Valley; reasonably worst case scenarios in the 90th percentile are in the 40 to locally 50 MPH range.
Behind this system, cyclonic flow will lead to continued chances of showers and as typical in a cold season pattern probabilities are greater in the Adirondacks and northern/northeastern higher terrain in Vermont.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR flight conditions will continue through the period with drier air and breezes preventing fog formation amidst a ridge of high pressure. Winds will generally remain westerly, with diurnal fluctuations with well mixed air supporting modest gusts and increases in wind speeds during the daytime hours before relaxing after sunset. However, while surface winds decrease, low level winds will tend to increase after 00Z, especially at northern New York terminals where LLWS is introduced given significant speed shear is expected. While precipitation is unlikely, an incoming trough to the northwest could spark showers and thunderstorms close enough to Massena to be impactful from 20-23Z. Given the long lead time and low probabilities, VCSH or PROB30 are currently not in TAF, but may be added if convection develops in southeastern Ontario.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 321 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
As of 319 AM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes have been made at this time. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is a little lower than before but the threat for localized flooding has gone up slightly.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 319 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Strong to severe thunderstorms and localized flooding possible on Sunday.
2. Big pattern change expected to occur Sunday night into Monday with temperatures returning to more seasonable values.
3. Expect widespread rain and unseasonably breezy conditions on Thursday. Near normal temperatures are likely for most of the midweek to late week period.
DISCUSSION
As of 319 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Much quieter weather is expected today with mostly sunny skies allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to upper 80s.
For Sunday, the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms looks to be on track with a strong cold front slated to move across the region Sunday afternoon and through the overnight hours. Forecast model soundings for Sunday afternoon are all over the place unfortunately with some models depicting a modest EML with a strong inversion below it. It's unlikely we would break the inversion the models are depicting if the event plans out as the NAM and NAM3 currently depicts. We should have ample instability around 1000 to 1500 J/kg coupled with deep layer shear in the 50 knot range which would be enough to support some supercell structure if we can get an surface based convection. RAOB sampling this morning will help give models a better handle on the EML and how the upper level pattern is developing which will give us a better handle on how Sunday may play out. The more concerning aspect at this time is the potential for some heavy rainfall. All guidance is showing a plume of deep layer moisture advecting from the Gulf and western Atlantic which will help push PWATs near 1.5" Sunday afternoon. Some models even depict PWATs up to 2.0". The soundings actually look favorable for heavy rain with tall skinny CAPE profiles with a deep warm cloud depth layer. It's possible we could see rainfall amounts of 1-2" in places with even localized higher amounts possible given the convective nature of the event. We have added heavy rainfall wording to the thunderstorms on Sunday as they could become problematic. We will watch this closely and have some better understanding on the potential impacts in subsequent forecasts.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front will push through Sunday night into Monday morning ushering in a much colder airmass. Temperatures will return to more seasonable values for Monday and Tuesday with highs climbing only into the mid 60s to mid 70s. We will be underneath the influence of an upper level trough once again for much of next week which will keep some chances for showers each day with a pool of colder air aloft and several weak disturbances traversing the longwave pattern. None of these showers should be strong as we will be lacking significant moisture and instability.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Focus of the days 4 through 7 period (Tuesday night through Friday night) is on the expected Colorado low expected to develop and track northeastward through the Great Lakes region. This looks like an unseasonably strong system, with the ensemble MSLP through this period roughly 995 millibars, near the 1st climatologically percentile. The member storm tracks are fairly well clustered through Michigan and into central Ontario and Quebec Thursday night. That being said, some interesting differences in timing are noted with the GEPS being quite slow compared to the ENS & GEFS, and the GEFS for the 00Z initialization (latest data)
shifted a bit northward closer to the Grand Ensemble track.
Currently the probabilities of a 24 hour rainfall greater than 1 inch ending Friday at 8 am (rain is most likely from Thursday morning through Thursday evening) are about 25 to 50%, lowest in the northern Champlain Valley and greatest in much of northern New York, especially towards the St. Lawrence Valley and southern portions of the Adirondacks.
A more northward track which would reduce potential for heavier rainfall amounts but lead to greater risk of stronger wind gusts.
While at this time range a broad slight chance of thunderstorms is also reasonable, looking at forecast soundings and the atmospheric environment it appears a low tropopause will limit cloud depths and the near surface temperatures will struggle to warm enough to produce much instability with moist adiabatic lapse rates present.
So at this time, the primary possible hazard looks related to winds, mainly out of the south, during the day on Thursday. The average 24 hour maximum wind gust in the latest NBM provides a conservative 30 to 35 MPH range for much of northern New York and the Champlain Valley; reasonably worst case scenarios in the 90th percentile are in the 40 to locally 50 MPH range.
Behind this system, cyclonic flow will lead to continued chances of showers and as typical in a cold season pattern probabilities are greater in the Adirondacks and northern/northeastern higher terrain in Vermont.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR flight conditions will continue through the period with drier air and breezes preventing fog formation amidst a ridge of high pressure. Winds will generally remain westerly, with diurnal fluctuations with well mixed air supporting modest gusts and increases in wind speeds during the daytime hours before relaxing after sunset. However, while surface winds decrease, low level winds will tend to increase after 00Z, especially at northern New York terminals where LLWS is introduced given significant speed shear is expected. While precipitation is unlikely, an incoming trough to the northwest could spark showers and thunderstorms close enough to Massena to be impactful from 20-23Z. Given the long lead time and low probabilities, VCSH or PROB30 are currently not in TAF, but may be added if convection develops in southeastern Ontario.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Link to 5 hour of 5 minute data for KMSS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMSS
Wind History Graph: MSS
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of north east
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