Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:20AM||Sunset 8:26PM||Thursday April 22, 2021 9:24 PM MDT (03:24 UTC)||Moonrise 1:47PM||Moonset 3:45AM||Illumination 85%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neihart, MTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KTFX 230216 AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 815 PM MDT Thu Apr 22 2021
. Evening Update .
815 PM UPDATE.
Fine-tuned PoPs and QPF through the early morning hours Friday based on current trends. The freezing drizzle threat seems to be ending or have ended, but can't rule out isolated pockets of freezing drizzle through the overnight in a few locations. Indeed, the 00z GTF sounding indicated saturation only to about -10 deg C, which can support all liquid precipitation and thus drizzle or freezing drizzle with a lack of snow growth in the cloud layer. Issued a Special Weather Statement for the potential for black ice to form on road surfaces, especially elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses, as the evening progresses into the overnight. No other changes otherwise.
522 PM UPDATE.
Minor update to add some freezing drizzle wording for parts of the region, especially southern parts of north-central Montana and west-central Montana. There appears to be just enough drying of the dendritic growth zone to prevent snowflakes from forming in the clouds at times, thus resulting in precipitation remaining all liquid at times. With no significant impacts expected, will not expand the Winter Weather Advisory at this time, especially since roads should remain above freezing while the duration of any freezing drizzle or freezing rain should remain very limited and confined to this evening.
Areas of rain and snow will transition to snow for most areas by this evening as a low pressure trough moves across the Northern Rockies and Montana. Snow accumulations will mainly be light at lower elevations with several inches expected in the mountains. Conditions remain unsettled but not as cool through early early next week.
AVIATION. 507 PM MDT Thu Apr 22 2021 (23/00Z TAF period)
Gusty north winds behind a Canadian cold front will gradually diminish through the evening, with areas of light snow and freezing freezing drizzle and lowering cigs and visibility across the region through the overnight into Friday morning, especially those terminals near and along north- and northwest-facing mountain slopes (i.e., KLWT, KGTF, KHLN, and KBZN). Areas of snow and lower cloud ceilings persist through much of tonight with precipitation ending early Friday morning from west to east. Cigs gradually improve through the daylight hours tomorrow, with some potential for patchy fog in the morning, though confidence is low at this time.
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 507 PM MDT Thu Apr 22 2021/
Upper level trough continues to dig south and east through the Northern Rockies and MT tonight. Cold airmass and surface high pressure continues to push south out of Alberta this afternoon bringing gusty north winds and cooler temperatures to most of the forecast area by late this afternoon and evening with winds gradually decreasing late tonight. Precipitation has so far been mainly associated with post-frontal upslope flow behind the front across western portions of north-central MT, but will increase this afternoon as an embedded shortwave disturbance rotates into the region from the west. Expect a period of more widespread light precipitation across much of north-central MT late this afternoon and evening with focus shifting from areas along the Rocky mtn front east along and to the north of the Little Belts/Snowies. A more unstable airmass over SW MT will support a more convective nature to the precipitation late this afternoon and evening with showers and at least some potential for a more organized band of precipitation to shift across that area this evening. Cooling aloft will make for a quick transition to snow as precipitation develops this afternoon. Overall snow amounts forecast through tonight not changes much with accumulations greater than 2 inches mainly confined the the mountains along the Rocky Mtn front and across the central MT mountains. Snow will diminish late tonight through Friday morning as the shortwave disturbance exits the area. Another cool day is expected Friday with daytime temperatures reaching the low 40s for most areas. Some clearing is expected but residual moisture in NW flow aloft across the region will keep at least some cloud-cover in place across the area with a few showers lingering across the mountains. Hoenisch
Shortwave ridging then builds over the state for mostly dry, but continued cloudy and cool conditions Friday night into Saturday. This ridge will be quickly squashed by another vigorous upper level wave that will close off and move southward along the West Coast through the weekend and into early next week. A moist and unstable southwesterly flow aloft will extend from this weather system into Montana with continued cool, cloudy, and wet conditions expected Saturday afternoon into Monday. The main portion of the closed low reaches southern California then moves inland to the Four Corners region Monday night and Tuesday. The northern branch of the parent low system will move eastward in concert with the southern low bringing continued unstable conditions into southwest and portions of central Montana during this time frame. Diagnostic models and ensembles support building another weak ridge aloft over the northern Rocky Mountains for Wednesday and Thursday which should bring mostly dry and warmer conditions. mpj
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. GTF 24 44 27 48 / 80 20 0 50 CTB 23 42 26 43 / 30 10 0 50 HLN 28 51 32 55 / 40 30 10 50 BZN 26 50 30 55 / 80 20 10 40 WYS 21 49 22 50 / 40 30 0 60 DLN 26 53 33 56 / 50 20 0 40 HVR 25 45 26 52 / 20 10 0 20 LWT 23 39 24 49 / 70 40 10 40
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Friday Northern Rocky Mountain Front . Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
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|Malmstrom Air Force Base, MT||46 mi||26 min||NE 9||4.00 mi||Light Showers Snow Fog/Mist||28°F||28°F||99%||1019.8 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KGFA
Wind History from GFA (wind in knots)
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