Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neihart, MT
May 6, 2024 8:19 AM MDT (14:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:57 AM Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 4:08 AM Moonset 6:19 PM |
Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT
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FXUS65 KTFX 061140 AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 540 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
SYNOPSIS
A Pacific weather system is on track to initially bring strong northwest winds to much of North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana with some areas of precipitation. While the strong winds will linger through Wednesday, the low elevation rain and mountain snow will increase and become heavier, especially over North Central and Central Montana. The system will then exit the area Wednesday night into Thursday, for decreasing winds and precipitation, and a period of drying and warming conditions into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key Points:
- A significant spring storm remains on track to impact the Northern Rockies through the middle of this week; bringing strong winds, widespread low elevation rain, and heavy mountain snow.
- Strong northwest winds of 30 to 45 mph gusting to 65 mph will develop today over much of North Central and Central Montana and continue at times through Wednesday.
- The heaviest forecast rainfall amounts have spread west to include the plains for much of North Central and Central Montana. Amounts are mostly in the 1 to 2 inch range for this afternoon through Thursday, with up to 4 inches of rain/snow water equivalent possible in the mountains.
- The heaviest mountain snowfall amounts have remained consistently in the 1 to 2 feet range for most areas Tuesday through Wednesday, but up to 3 feet of snow is possible in the Little Belt Mountains.
Today through Tonight... A low pressure area aloft that is over the Utah/Idaho/Wyoming borders early this morning is forecast to be moved northeast across Wyoming today and into the Dakotas tonight. Moisture wrapping around this system will continue light to at times moderate snow with gusty southerly winds in the mountains of Southwest Montana, so the Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect there until noon today. Precipitation will gradually shift northeast on the back side of the low pressure area, focusing over the area along and east of a Lewistown to Havre line this afternoon. The moisture axis is then forecast to move further to the northeast overnight as the low center lingers over North Dakota. However, strong (45 to 60 kt) low- to mid- level winds on the backside of the low will also combine with a strong surface pressure gradient to bring a 70 to 85 percent probability of strong northwest winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph to much of North Central and Central Montana beginning this afternoon. Have therefore upgraded the High Wind Watch for much of North Central Montana to a Warning and expanded it to include much of Central Montana. This potential seems to be driven partially by areas of downsloping off the Sweetgrass Hills, Bears Paw Mountains, and the island mountains of Central Montana, as well as by the northwest winds blowing through northwest to southeast oriented valleys in Central Montana. This system will also begin the downward trend in temperatures, as they should fall closer to seasonal averages.
Tuesday through Thursday... The low pressure center is then forecast to retrograde west into Eastern Montana Tuesday into Tuesday night as it merges with a large low pressure trough moving east across the Pacific Northwest. This shift west of the precipitation-laden system will spread moderate rainfall over much of North Central and Central Montana, which will persist into Wednesday night. Probabilistic guidance continues to give much of the area an 80+ percent chance for at least 1 inch of precipitation, with a 50 to 70 percent probability of 2+ inches east of Interstate 15. Temperatures cooling up to 15 degrees below normal will help lower snow levels to between 4000 and 5000 feet, resulting in at least a 50 percent chance of 12+ inches of snow for most mountain areas with a 70+ percent chance of at least 24 inches of snow in the Little Belt Mountains. Have therefore continued the Winter Storm Warning for the Little Belts and upgraded the Winter Storm Watches to Warnings for the East Glacier Park Region and for the remaining mountain areas of Central Montana. The approach of the low pressure center and its associated strong northwest flow mentioned earlier will continue the strong surface winds through Tuesday into Tuesday night, which will cause reduced visibility in the mountains due to wet blowing snow, and a few power outages are possible due to the winds blowing wet accumulated snow on some power lines. Winds should decrease through the day on Wednesday and the snow should taper off Wednesday night into Thursday as ensemble guidance members are in good agreement with moving a high pressure ridge southeast into Montana, forcing the weather system into the Central Rockies and High Plains.
Friday through next Monday... Most of the ensemble guidance keeps at least a weak high pressure ridge over Montana through this period, which should keep the area mostly dry as temperatures warm to around 15 degrees above normal by Monday. However, the NBM brings some weak disturbances through the area Sunday and Monday, so there is a chance of mainly mountain precipitation for those days. -Coulston
AVIATION
540 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 (06/12Z TAF Period)
Scattered rain showers and mountain snow will continue lifting northward through the day. Periods of low VFR/MVFR and even IFR conditions (most notably for KWYS) and associated mountain obscuration can be expected, particularly during times of precipitation. Gusty west to northwesterly winds and mountain wave turbulence develop and increase this morning, peaking in strength later this afternoon. Areas along the Continental Divide from MacDonald Pass northward and over the central ranges will see the strongest winds as will their neighboring plains/valleys. - RCG
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
HYDROLOGY
A slow moving Pacific weather system will bring an extended period of lower elevation rain and mountain snow this week, with the heaviest precipitation falling Tuesday through early Thursday. NBM probabilistic guidance highlights the eastern portions of Central/North-central MT with the heaviest rainfall amounts for this period, largely supporting 1 to 3 inches of rainfall/snow melt liquid equivalent over locations east of a Great Falls to Shelby line Tuesday through Thursday.
While flooding is generally not expected, some rivers, creeks, and streams along the Canadian border in Hill and Blaine Counties are expected to approach or reach action stage Wednesday and Thursday, mainly impacting unpopulated rural locations. Anyone near waterways should remain alert for changing conditions and be prepared to seek higher ground should water rises occur. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 56 39 47 36 / 40 20 60 90 CTB 54 37 45 35 / 20 30 70 90 HLN 55 38 49 39 / 30 10 50 80 BZN 53 31 48 32 / 70 20 50 80 WYS 44 26 40 26 / 60 50 80 80 DLN 50 29 45 32 / 40 40 40 60 HVR 56 38 48 37 / 80 80 90 100 LWT 47 34 42 31 / 80 40 70 90
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains- Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Western and Central Chouteau County.
Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-East Glacier Park Region-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains.
High Wind Warning from noon today to midnight MDT Tuesday night for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area- Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Meagher County Valleys-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains.
High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 540 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
SYNOPSIS
A Pacific weather system is on track to initially bring strong northwest winds to much of North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana with some areas of precipitation. While the strong winds will linger through Wednesday, the low elevation rain and mountain snow will increase and become heavier, especially over North Central and Central Montana. The system will then exit the area Wednesday night into Thursday, for decreasing winds and precipitation, and a period of drying and warming conditions into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key Points:
- A significant spring storm remains on track to impact the Northern Rockies through the middle of this week; bringing strong winds, widespread low elevation rain, and heavy mountain snow.
- Strong northwest winds of 30 to 45 mph gusting to 65 mph will develop today over much of North Central and Central Montana and continue at times through Wednesday.
- The heaviest forecast rainfall amounts have spread west to include the plains for much of North Central and Central Montana. Amounts are mostly in the 1 to 2 inch range for this afternoon through Thursday, with up to 4 inches of rain/snow water equivalent possible in the mountains.
- The heaviest mountain snowfall amounts have remained consistently in the 1 to 2 feet range for most areas Tuesday through Wednesday, but up to 3 feet of snow is possible in the Little Belt Mountains.
Today through Tonight... A low pressure area aloft that is over the Utah/Idaho/Wyoming borders early this morning is forecast to be moved northeast across Wyoming today and into the Dakotas tonight. Moisture wrapping around this system will continue light to at times moderate snow with gusty southerly winds in the mountains of Southwest Montana, so the Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect there until noon today. Precipitation will gradually shift northeast on the back side of the low pressure area, focusing over the area along and east of a Lewistown to Havre line this afternoon. The moisture axis is then forecast to move further to the northeast overnight as the low center lingers over North Dakota. However, strong (45 to 60 kt) low- to mid- level winds on the backside of the low will also combine with a strong surface pressure gradient to bring a 70 to 85 percent probability of strong northwest winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph to much of North Central and Central Montana beginning this afternoon. Have therefore upgraded the High Wind Watch for much of North Central Montana to a Warning and expanded it to include much of Central Montana. This potential seems to be driven partially by areas of downsloping off the Sweetgrass Hills, Bears Paw Mountains, and the island mountains of Central Montana, as well as by the northwest winds blowing through northwest to southeast oriented valleys in Central Montana. This system will also begin the downward trend in temperatures, as they should fall closer to seasonal averages.
Tuesday through Thursday... The low pressure center is then forecast to retrograde west into Eastern Montana Tuesday into Tuesday night as it merges with a large low pressure trough moving east across the Pacific Northwest. This shift west of the precipitation-laden system will spread moderate rainfall over much of North Central and Central Montana, which will persist into Wednesday night. Probabilistic guidance continues to give much of the area an 80+ percent chance for at least 1 inch of precipitation, with a 50 to 70 percent probability of 2+ inches east of Interstate 15. Temperatures cooling up to 15 degrees below normal will help lower snow levels to between 4000 and 5000 feet, resulting in at least a 50 percent chance of 12+ inches of snow for most mountain areas with a 70+ percent chance of at least 24 inches of snow in the Little Belt Mountains. Have therefore continued the Winter Storm Warning for the Little Belts and upgraded the Winter Storm Watches to Warnings for the East Glacier Park Region and for the remaining mountain areas of Central Montana. The approach of the low pressure center and its associated strong northwest flow mentioned earlier will continue the strong surface winds through Tuesday into Tuesday night, which will cause reduced visibility in the mountains due to wet blowing snow, and a few power outages are possible due to the winds blowing wet accumulated snow on some power lines. Winds should decrease through the day on Wednesday and the snow should taper off Wednesday night into Thursday as ensemble guidance members are in good agreement with moving a high pressure ridge southeast into Montana, forcing the weather system into the Central Rockies and High Plains.
Friday through next Monday... Most of the ensemble guidance keeps at least a weak high pressure ridge over Montana through this period, which should keep the area mostly dry as temperatures warm to around 15 degrees above normal by Monday. However, the NBM brings some weak disturbances through the area Sunday and Monday, so there is a chance of mainly mountain precipitation for those days. -Coulston
AVIATION
540 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 (06/12Z TAF Period)
Scattered rain showers and mountain snow will continue lifting northward through the day. Periods of low VFR/MVFR and even IFR conditions (most notably for KWYS) and associated mountain obscuration can be expected, particularly during times of precipitation. Gusty west to northwesterly winds and mountain wave turbulence develop and increase this morning, peaking in strength later this afternoon. Areas along the Continental Divide from MacDonald Pass northward and over the central ranges will see the strongest winds as will their neighboring plains/valleys. - RCG
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
HYDROLOGY
A slow moving Pacific weather system will bring an extended period of lower elevation rain and mountain snow this week, with the heaviest precipitation falling Tuesday through early Thursday. NBM probabilistic guidance highlights the eastern portions of Central/North-central MT with the heaviest rainfall amounts for this period, largely supporting 1 to 3 inches of rainfall/snow melt liquid equivalent over locations east of a Great Falls to Shelby line Tuesday through Thursday.
While flooding is generally not expected, some rivers, creeks, and streams along the Canadian border in Hill and Blaine Counties are expected to approach or reach action stage Wednesday and Thursday, mainly impacting unpopulated rural locations. Anyone near waterways should remain alert for changing conditions and be prepared to seek higher ground should water rises occur. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 56 39 47 36 / 40 20 60 90 CTB 54 37 45 35 / 20 30 70 90 HLN 55 38 49 39 / 30 10 50 80 BZN 53 31 48 32 / 70 20 50 80 WYS 44 26 40 26 / 60 50 80 80 DLN 50 29 45 32 / 40 40 40 60 HVR 56 38 48 37 / 80 80 90 100 LWT 47 34 42 31 / 80 40 70 90
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains- Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Western and Central Chouteau County.
Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-East Glacier Park Region-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains.
High Wind Warning from noon today to midnight MDT Tuesday night for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area- Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Meagher County Valleys-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains.
High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
Great Falls, MT,
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