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FXUS65 KTFX 050153 AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 753 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Breezy conditions will continue today as a cold front pushes through the area. Expect cooler temperatures to linger across the area through Friday morning, with many areas across the plains waking up to some frost on Friday morning. Warmer temperatures will return to the area over the weekend, along with dry conditions.

UPDATE
No updates planned for this evening, as the current forecast is on track. Light rain showers continue to move from northwest to southeast through the CWA. The showers will likely continue into early Thursday morning before diminishing over North Central MT.
Overall, most of the showers are producing less than 0.05 inches, but some areas near Lewistown might receive close to 0.10 inches.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is on track, with this upcoming weekend looking warm and dry. Brusda

AVIATION
550 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023 (05/00Z TAF Period)

Main concern is for a few light showers to move from northwest to southeast through the CWA this evening. The Lewistown area will see the most impacts, with the showers continuing in that area to near 06z Thu. Otherwise, mid clouds can be expected across the remainder of the CWA through much of the period. Clearing will start to occur from north to south, generally after 21z Thu. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.

PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023/ Through Thursday night...Current radar and surface observations show a cold front making its way across the plains, kicking up a few light rain showers as it does so. Any of these showers will be rather light, only dropping a few hundredths of an inch, but they may help bring some briefly gusty wind to around 40 mph as they move through. Behind the front, temperatures will drop a few degrees from the low to mid 60s to the mid 50s. High pressure will build in for Thursday, which should help clear out skies and reduce the winds, but it will make for a chilly night across the plains, possibly resulting in some areas of frost. Ludwig

Friday through Wednesday... Upper level ridging is still on track for the Treasure State beginning Friday bringing dry conditions that should continue until Tuesday next week when our next weather system has potential to move in from the Pacific Northwest. Frost/Freeze Friday morning has potential to develop across many North Central Montana locations as overnight lows are forecasted to be between 20 and 30 degrees. However, overnight low temperatures across Southwest Montana valleys are going to be above freezing. Frost may not develop everywhere, but be prepared Friday morning for cold temperatures and the potential for a hard freeze(between 75 and 95%). Temperatures beginning Friday across North Central and Southwest Montana have high probabilities (greater than 75 percent) of being above normal, by 10 to 20 degrees in many locations as our average high temperatures this time of year are in the low to mid 60s. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be in the low 70s to high 70s. Ensemble model guidance is currently in agreement for a pattern change beginning Tuesday evening into Wednesday bringing precipitation and a return to near normal temperatures. Webb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 41 56 33 64 / 50 10 0 0 CTB 36 54 29 64 / 20 10 0 0 HLN 43 66 37 66 / 20 10 10 0 BZN 39 63 36 62 / 20 10 10 0 WYS 31 56 28 59 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 34 64 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 37 58 25 60 / 10 10 0 0 LWT 36 52 26 59 / 60 30 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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