Neihart, MT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neihart, MT

June 19, 2024 8:55 AM MDT (14:55 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 9:27 PM
Moonrise 6:37 PM   Moonset 2:15 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neihart, MT
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Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT
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FXUS65 KTFX 191408 AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 808 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS

Unsettled conditions are expected through the remainder of the work week across the Northern Rockies, with high temperatures slightly below to near normal. Warmer and drier condtions are then expected over the weekend, with Sunday being the warmest day of the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Fog has mostly dissipated across the plains of North-central and Central Montana. As a result the Dense Fog Advisory for those areas has been cancelled. For areas where there still is fog, it will dissipate in the next hour or so. High temperatures, hourly temperatures, dewpoint temperatures, and relative humidity values were all increased this morning to better reflect current observations and trends. Minor tweaks were made to the PoP, Sky, and Wind grids to better reflect current observations and trends.
The rest of the forecast is on track. This afternoon and evening there will be isolated showers and thunderstorms primarily across North-central and Central Montana. -IG

AVIATION
19/12Z TAF Period

As the sun rose up, areas of fog have develop primarily along the river valleys. Because of this, most terminals that previously had prevailing fog developing at sunrise in the 06z TAFs got put into a TEMPO group instead for the slight chance of fog developing at the terminals. If fog develops, it will mainly stay VFR/MVFR (exception for KGTF where they have a 10-30% of LIFR conditions). Most fog activity is expected to diminish after 15z this morning. Other than the fog risk, VFR conditions prevail for the TAF period. There's a 20-30% for some light showers/isolated storm this afternoon across Central/North Central MT, but looks to keep VFR conditions. -Wilson

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.

PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024/

This morning...primary forecast concern through the morning hours across Southwest through North Central Montana will be reduced visibilities due to fog, with some areas potentially seeing dense fog. NBM probabilities for visibility of one mile or less through the morning hours at all locations are at least 10-20%, with a 40- 60% chance across the entirety of the Golden Triangle (Great Falls, to Havre, to Cut Bank, to Great Falls). Within the Golden Triangle HRRR probabilities for a quarter of a mile or less peak at between 20-50%. Given recent precipitation across this area (i.e. Golden Triangle) combined with clearing skies and light winds through the morning hours, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 16z this morning to cover the potential for significant reductions in visibility. Fog will gradually dissipate beyond 16z this morning with increasing solar insolation.

This afternoon through Friday night...unsettled conditions are expected to persist through the end of the work week across the Northern Rockies as moist southwest flow aloft, steep afternoon lapse rates, and shortwaves rippling through the overall flow help to support daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will be especially true on Friday, when one of the "stronger" shortwaves traverses over North Central and Central Montana, providing the best opportunity for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. NBM probabilities for a 0.25" or more of precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday are less than 10% across all areas, but on Friday climb to as high as 30-60% along and north of the Montana Hwy 200 corridor and east of the I-15 corridor. High temperatures through the remainder of the work week will continue to run below to near normal, with highs ranging from the 60s today to the upper 60s to upper 70s on Thursday and Friday.

Saturday through Sunday...ensemble clusters favor transient ridging moving over the Northern Rockies over the weekend, which will look to bring drier and warmer conditions to all of Southwest through North Central Montana. Leading mode of uncertainty throughout this timeframe is the amplitude of the ridge as it moves overhead, which will ultimately determine how warm temperatures rise. Regardless of the ultimate high temperature on either day, highs rising some 5-10 degrees and 10-20 degrees above average on Saturday and Sunday respectively can be anticipated.

Monday through next Wednesday...multi-model ensemble supports general southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Rockies, with the leading mode of uncertainty being the position and/or timing of the ridge axis over the Western CONUS, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Deterministic NBM guidance is currently favoring a drier and warmer solution as the ridge remains further west and more over the Northern Rockies; however, should the ridge placement be further east then a "slightly cooler" and "wetter" solution would then be favored. - Moldan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 68 38 74 48 / 20 20 20 20 CTB 66 35 72 44 / 40 20 20 20 HLN 73 43 80 52 / 30 20 20 20 BZN 70 37 76 46 / 0 0 20 10 WYS 64 31 71 40 / 0 0 20 10 DLN 68 35 73 45 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 71 41 76 50 / 20 20 20 30 LWT 66 38 71 46 / 40 20 40 40

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KGFA45 sm60 minSSW 0510 smClear48°F43°F81%30.10
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Great Falls, MT,




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