Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neihart, MT
April 16, 2024 4:06 AM MDT (10:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:31 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 11:43 AM Moonset 3:07 AM |
Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT
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FXUS65 KTFX 160549 AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1150 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Aviation Section Updated
SYNOPSIS
Rain showers across southwest Montana and parts of Central Montana continue this afternoon and evening. Near normal afternoon high temperatures tomorrow then colder temperatures for the rest of the work week. Gusty winds tomorrow and snow begins for southwest Montana mountains and along the Rocky Mountain Front moving southeast across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
UPDATE
Updates were made to the precip chances in the first 6 hours to better match recent radar trends and updated model guidance.
Scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms will continue to impact the region before tapering off after sunset. Otherwise, no changes to the going forecast.
-thor
AVIATION
1150 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024 (16/06Z TAF Period)
Generally VFR conditions expected overnight and through Tuesday morning. Surface winds will be gusty and increase towards midday Tuesday. A strong cold front will move southward Tuesday night.
Expect a surface wind shift to north Tue evening, with snow developing over North Central MT and across portions of Southwest MT. IFR conditions or lower are possible in areas of snow.
Mountains/passes will start to become obscured by Tuesday evening.
Brusda
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 252 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024/
Rest of today through tomorrow night... A closed upper level low over southwest U.S. is bringing unsettled weather conditions for Southwest and parts of Central Montana today and tonight. Rain showers should continue into the early evening hours, with a potential (50%) of a non-severe thunderstorm this evening with primary concern being a heavy downpour, lightning, and gusty winds up to 30 mph. Westerly winds across the Rocky Mountain Front and the adjacent Hi-Plains region continue to gust between 25 and 35 mph through this evening. After tonight, there's a break in the precipitation until tomorrow night when our next weather system moves in from Canada bringing mountain snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning along the Rocky Mountain Front. The Madison Range mountains in Southwest Montana could see about the same onset timing of snowfall beginning Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday morning. Precipitation moves southeast into the Little Belt Mountains and Central Montana overnight Tuesday into the early morning hours of Wednesday.
Wednesday through Friday... Latest National Blend of Models (NBM)
4.1 data suggests 24 hour snowfall probabilities of greater than 2 inches of snow is above 75 percent for the mountainous terrain of the Rocky Mountain Front to the Little Belt Mountains and Madison Range Mountains. For Great Falls and Lewistown, the probabilities are less than 30 percent for snowfall amounts greater than 2 inches for Wednesday morning into Thursday morning.
Precipitation becomes more confined to lingering mountain snowfall for Wednesday evening through Friday. Winter weather highlights remain for this timeframe for locations to see the most impacts, such as mountainous terrain, of winter weather (example includes snowfall amounts). Temperatures remain well below normal for this time of year, with highs in the 30s for Wednesday through Friday and overnight low temperatures in the teens (with single digits in the mountains).
Saturday through Monday... A return to near normal afternoon high temperatures in the 50s and 60s is in the forecast for this upcoming weekend into early next week with ensemble model guidance in support for upper level ridging to return to the area. Dry conditions are favored by the latest model guidance during this time period. Webb
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 68 39 53 29 / 20 10 10 80 CTB 65 36 47 25 / 0 0 50 60 HLN 68 39 55 31 / 20 10 10 70 BZN 64 33 57 27 / 80 20 40 80 WYS 55 26 47 23 / 70 30 40 80 DLN 60 32 56 27 / 40 10 20 60 HVR 72 42 55 29 / 10 10 20 30 LWT 62 37 53 26 / 70 10 10 60
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to noon MDT Wednesday for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Gates of the Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1150 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Aviation Section Updated
SYNOPSIS
Rain showers across southwest Montana and parts of Central Montana continue this afternoon and evening. Near normal afternoon high temperatures tomorrow then colder temperatures for the rest of the work week. Gusty winds tomorrow and snow begins for southwest Montana mountains and along the Rocky Mountain Front moving southeast across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
UPDATE
Updates were made to the precip chances in the first 6 hours to better match recent radar trends and updated model guidance.
Scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms will continue to impact the region before tapering off after sunset. Otherwise, no changes to the going forecast.
-thor
AVIATION
1150 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024 (16/06Z TAF Period)
Generally VFR conditions expected overnight and through Tuesday morning. Surface winds will be gusty and increase towards midday Tuesday. A strong cold front will move southward Tuesday night.
Expect a surface wind shift to north Tue evening, with snow developing over North Central MT and across portions of Southwest MT. IFR conditions or lower are possible in areas of snow.
Mountains/passes will start to become obscured by Tuesday evening.
Brusda
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 252 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024/
Rest of today through tomorrow night... A closed upper level low over southwest U.S. is bringing unsettled weather conditions for Southwest and parts of Central Montana today and tonight. Rain showers should continue into the early evening hours, with a potential (50%) of a non-severe thunderstorm this evening with primary concern being a heavy downpour, lightning, and gusty winds up to 30 mph. Westerly winds across the Rocky Mountain Front and the adjacent Hi-Plains region continue to gust between 25 and 35 mph through this evening. After tonight, there's a break in the precipitation until tomorrow night when our next weather system moves in from Canada bringing mountain snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning along the Rocky Mountain Front. The Madison Range mountains in Southwest Montana could see about the same onset timing of snowfall beginning Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday morning. Precipitation moves southeast into the Little Belt Mountains and Central Montana overnight Tuesday into the early morning hours of Wednesday.
Wednesday through Friday... Latest National Blend of Models (NBM)
4.1 data suggests 24 hour snowfall probabilities of greater than 2 inches of snow is above 75 percent for the mountainous terrain of the Rocky Mountain Front to the Little Belt Mountains and Madison Range Mountains. For Great Falls and Lewistown, the probabilities are less than 30 percent for snowfall amounts greater than 2 inches for Wednesday morning into Thursday morning.
Precipitation becomes more confined to lingering mountain snowfall for Wednesday evening through Friday. Winter weather highlights remain for this timeframe for locations to see the most impacts, such as mountainous terrain, of winter weather (example includes snowfall amounts). Temperatures remain well below normal for this time of year, with highs in the 30s for Wednesday through Friday and overnight low temperatures in the teens (with single digits in the mountains).
Saturday through Monday... A return to near normal afternoon high temperatures in the 50s and 60s is in the forecast for this upcoming weekend into early next week with ensemble model guidance in support for upper level ridging to return to the area. Dry conditions are favored by the latest model guidance during this time period. Webb
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 68 39 53 29 / 20 10 10 80 CTB 65 36 47 25 / 0 0 50 60 HLN 68 39 55 31 / 20 10 10 70 BZN 64 33 57 27 / 80 20 40 80 WYS 55 26 47 23 / 70 30 40 80 DLN 60 32 56 27 / 40 10 20 60 HVR 72 42 55 29 / 10 10 20 30 LWT 62 37 53 26 / 70 10 10 60
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to noon MDT Wednesday for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Gates of the Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains.
Airport Reports
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Great Falls, MT,
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