Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Shores, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 5:04PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 3:03 PM PST (23:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:22AMMoonset 3:01PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 837 Am Pst Wed Jan 22 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon... Combined seas 12 to 14 feet. Bar conditions rough to severe. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 245 pm today and 330 am Thursday. The afternoon ebb today will be strong.
PZZ100 837 Am Pst Wed Jan 22 2020
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A warm front will lift north across the area today before a cold front pushes inland Thursday and Thursday night. Active weather will continue through the remainder of the week as additional weather systems move across the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Shores, WA
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location: 46.95, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 221706 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 906 AM PST Wed Jan 22 2020

UPDATE. Forecast is in good shape this morning with no major updates necessary.

A broad scale trough is noted roughly between 140 and 170W, with a ridge extending downstream from this feature across the PacNW. Height rises and weakening jet dynamics accompany this ridge, along with larger scale forcing for descent. Normally, this would argue for a break in the weather and a drier day. Unfortunately, that is not the case today and it's in fact quite the opposite. Closer to the surface, an organized frontal system is associated with one of the shorter wave troughs rotating around the broader scale trough. The warm frontal portion of this system can be seen extending NW to SE across the far NE Pacific, not too far offshore the coastal waters of Washington. WAA in the vicinity of the frontal boundary has allowed for the development of widespread stratiform rain across southern and western portions of the local this morning. This trend will continue northward thru the day today and the warm front will make slow northeastward progress thru the day. QPF is expected to be highest across the Olympic Peninsula and across the Cascades, with amounts generally less than an inch (per latest deterministic hi-res and some ensemble data). The lowlands will likely receive a few tenths of an inch.

Rivers flowing off the Cascades and the Olympics will noticeably begin to rise today, but should remain below flood stage. The exception will be the Skokomish River in Mason County, which is already in Minor Flood Stage. It will likely reach Moderate Flood Stage by the evening hours. Previous discussion can be referenced below with an updated marine and aviation section.

Kovacik

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 208 AM PST Wed Jan 22 2020/

SYNOPSIS. Wet weather for the rest of the week into the weekend as a series of systems moves through the area. Snow levels near passes through today will rise steadily later Wednesday into Thursday. Periods of heavy rain will lead to rising rivers and the potential for river flooding later this week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Showers are becoming more scattered early this morning in wake of departing cold front. Snow levels have lowered to around 2500 feet with heavy snow falling yesterday evening into early this morning. Any sort of break in between now and warm front arrival will be short lived as precipitation shield already pushing north on Portland's radar. Rain, moderate to heavy at times, will reach the coast near daybreak and push NE through the rest of the area during the morning to early afternoon. This feature will hang up over the area into Thursday before cold front pushes through later Thursday into Thursday night. Snow levels will rise today from below pass levels to 5000-7000 feet by tonight. Until snow levels rise above passes, as cold air remains trapped in easterly flow, could see decent amount of additional snowfall today, especially for Stevens Pass (and Paradise and Mt Baker). Have opted to extend current winter headlines through 4 PM today when trends can be monitored closely. Those with travel plans over the Cascades should expect continued hazardous winter driving conditions until the changeover to rain.

As snow levels rise and heavy rain falls into Thursday, flooding concerns will increase across the area. Especially heavy amounts will fall on the favored upslope regions of the Olympics and across the higher elevations of the Cascades. Flood Watch remains in effect for majority of the area. See hydrology section below for details.

In addition, winds will increase late tonight into Thursday with gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Strongest winds expected along the coast and the interior north of Everett.

Precipitation becomes more showery on Friday as upper level trough swings through the area. Rain won't be as heavy as today or Thursday but will be enough across higher terrain to continue flooding concerns. Snow levels will drop from around 5000 feet during the day to around 4000 feet by Friday night so Stevens Pass may begin to see a bit of snow again.

CEO

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Next system quickly brings another round of precipitation up from the SW for Saturday. Snow levels will be high enough for flooding concerns to remain across much of the area with mainly rain for the passes. Active pattern continues past Saturday with additional systems though the devil will be in the details. Deterministic model solutions still remain fairly chaotic with differences in timing and strength of each system but ensemble clusters generally show large scale troughing centered somewhere across the Pacific and ridging over the desert SW. This would leave local area sandwiched in between with relatively mild, moist air funneling into the area and colder air trapped across Alaska and BC. For now current forecast lends itself toward blended approach and has snow levels near or slightly above pass levels. Will continue to refine over next several days as this will certainly have implications on river levels.

CEO

AVIATION. A warm front will gradually lift north across the area today. Northwest flow aloft will become more westerly this morning and the air mass is moist and stable. Current conditions are primarily VFR across the central and south Sound, however sites along the coast and Olympic peninsula have already seen ceilings drop to MVFR, and even IFR in some spots, as precipitation moves in from the south. Most sites will gradually become MVFR today as the warm front progresses through the region. However, periods of IFR conditions will also be possible as well today in any areas of heavier precipitation. Southerly winds 5-15 knots this morning will become southeasterly by late morning-early afternoon. JD/SB

KSEA . Current VFR cigs will become MVFR this morning as a warm front progresses through the region. Widespread rain will continue through this afternoon, with periods of IFR conditions becoming possible at times. Southerly winds 5-15 knots will become more southeasterly by late morning-early afternoon. JD/SB

MARINE. A warm front will lift north across the area today before a cold front pushes inland on Thursday. Small Craft Advisory winds are in store for most of the area waters into Thursday. Active weather will continue through the remainder of this week, likely yielding additional headlines throughout the forecast period.

14 foot swells will gradually decrease to 10-12 feet this afternoon and remain so through much of the week. Small Craft Advisory for rough bar conditions will likely persist at Grays Harbor for much of the week as a result. JD/SB

HYDROLOGY. A period of warming, rising snow levels, and heavy rain in the mountains will force sharp rises on the rivers flowing off the Olympics and Cascades in western Washington and increase the risk for landslides across the area. Snow levels will rise to around 5,000 to 7,000 feet with 3 to 9 inches of rain in the mountains today through Saturday. Minor flooding is possible on several rivers as a result. The Skokomish River, which may reach moderate flood stage later today, will likely remain in flood into the weekend. The remainder of rivers may be flowing high through the rest of the weekend. Another period of warm and wet weather may renew the river flooding threat early next week.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for Bellevue and Vicinity-Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties- Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Everett and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.

Flood Watch from this evening through late Thursday night for Admiralty Inlet Area-Central Coast-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-North Coast-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca.

Flood Watch through late Thursday night for Hood Canal Area- Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Olympics.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Olympics.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 3 mi88 min S 14 G 20 49°F 47°F1011.5 hPa
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 19 mi52 min S 18 G 23 49°F 47°F1012.1 hPa
46041 - CAPE ELIZABETH- 45NM Northwest of Aberdeen, WA 43 mi74 min SE 21 G 27 47°F 49°F10 ft1009.6 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Westport, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Point Brown, Grays Harbor, Washington
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Point Brown
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:15 AM PST     4.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:34 AM PST     10.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:01 PM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:03 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:17 PM PST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.37.66.55.14.24.55.56.98.49.710.510.59.78.26.23.71.40.20.51.53.15.16.98.3

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:30 AM PST     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:06 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:21 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:41 AM PST     1.77 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:01 AM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:49 PM PST     -3.78 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:01 PM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:04 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:33 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:53 PM PST     2.42 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-1.1-1.7-1.7-1-0.10.71.41.71.71.30-1.4-2.7-3.5-3.8-3.2-2-0.70.51.52.22.41.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.