Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Shores, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Satellite imagery shows low clouds continuing over the the interior from about Skagit county southward, along the Strait of Juan de Fuca and over the Lower Chehalis Valley and Central Coast. Clear skies over the remainder of the area. Patchy fog reducing visibility to less than a mile.
Temperatures at 3 am/11z were in the lower 30s to lower 40s.

Upper level ridge remaining over Western Washington today with light flow in the lower levels. Early morning top reports around 1500 feet msl making the layer about 1000 feet thick. This is similar to Tuesday morning. Also like Tuesday morning, light flow in the lower levels. Stratus coverage slightly less this morning with Whatcom county in the clear. Stratus slowly eroding this afternoon from the edges. Cross cascade gradient becoming more negative this afternoon. This little bit of downsloping/drier air in the lower levels will help dissipate the stratus. Will go for a mid to late afternoon breakout with the Central Puget Sound the last to go. Highs in the mid 40s.

Upper level ridge weakening overnight. Stratus reforming this evening, at a higher base, combined with increasing high clouds ahead of approaching front making for mostly cloudy skies. Chance of rain North Coast/Western Strait of Juan de Fuca by 12z Thursday. Lows in the 30s.

What is left of the front dragging through Western Washington Thursday. Front reaching Puget Sound area midday and will be in the Cascades early to mid afternoon with little in the way of post frontal showers for the lowlands. Chance pops with the front except for the North Cascades where pops will be in the likely category. Precipitation amounts, if any, will be less than a tenth of an inch. Highs in the mid 40s.

Post front weak onshore push Thursday night moistening up the lower layers enough for a shallow layer of stratus to form again.
Shower activity in the Cascades will come to an end by 06z Friday.
Lows in the lower to mid 30s.

Upper level ridge building offshore Friday with cool north northwesterly flow aloft. Mostly sunny day after the stratus dissipates. With the flow in the lower levels becoming light Thursday night could see some morning freezing fog in the south Puget Sound and Southwest Interior. Highs only in the lower to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Extended models in good agreement with high amplitude upper level ridge offshore through the period. Dry and cool northerly flow aloft over the area. Light offshore gradients in the lower levels. The cooler air mass aloft will result in the coldest low temperatures of the season with most locations in the 20s Sunday through Tuesday morning. The colder/drier air mass will keep fog and low clouds from forming in the late night and morning hours in most locations. Even with plenty of sunshine highs only in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Felton

AVIATION
Upper ridging over the region will weaken and shift eastward today with northwest flow aloft backing to west to southwesterly as a weak front approaches the area. Widespread LIFR/IFR ceilings in fog and low clouds with areas of surface visibilities below 3SM will remain in place into midday. Any afternoon lifting and/or scattering will be brief at best.
Increasing onshore flow associated with a frontal system late tonight into Thursday morning is expected to produce widespread IFR or low MVFR ceilings along with a few showers mainly coast and north.

KSEA...LIFR stratus expected to persist through the morning.
Guidance is once again going with a brief late afternoon/early evening break out of the low clouds. Confidence in this occurring is low. However, any improvement will be short-lived as increasing onshore flow will bring a solid IFR or very low MVFR ceiling back by 04Z-06Z tonight. Surface winds light northerly reversing to southerly 4 to 7 knots near or after 00Z. 27

MARINE
Surface ridging over the waters will weaken today and a weak front will cross the area early Thursday morning. Broad ridging rebuilds offshore in its wake for increasing onshore flow. Current headlines for the outer coastal waters will likely need to be expanded to include the inner coastal waters and portions of the strait on Thursday. The offshore ridge will expand into the interior by the weekend for a return to offshore flow. This pattern will then persist well into early next week.

Seas in the 8 to 11 ft range will continue over portions of the coastal waters into Friday before subsiding this weekend. 27

HYDROLOGY
No river flooding in the next 7 days.

CLIMATE
The record January dry spell in Seattle is 15 days, January 16-30, 1963. We had a 9 day dry spell in January 2022 ( 21st thru 29th ). The January rainfall total in Seattle is 1.01 inches. Here are the top 5 driest Januarys in Seattle since record started in 1945 at Seattle- Tacoma airport, 1. 0.58 inches 1985, 2. 0.77 inches 1949, 3. 1.77 inches 1977, 4 and 5. 2.25 inches 1979 and 1963. Since the record setting dry January 40 years ago the driest January has been 2.51 inches in 1994 so one could say we are on pace for the driest January in 40 years with just an inch in the first half of the month. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.