Thursday, September24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Two Harbors, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:02PM Thursday September 24, 2020 8:36 AM CDT (13:36 UTC) Moonrise 2:40PMMoonset 11:04PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ144 Expires:202009030600;;239500 Fzus73 Kdlh 030501 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 1201 Am Cdt Thu Sep 3 2020 Lsz141>145-162-030600- 1201 Am Cdt Thu Sep 3 2020
.an area of Thunderstorms approaching western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 1159 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from far northern st. Louis county southwest to around grand rapids, moving east at 50 knots. The area of Thunderstorms will approach the nearshore waters of the north shore of lake superior, including the duluth and superior harbor between 1 and 130 am cdt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... This area of Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 33 knots...and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required. Boaters should consider heading for shore before this storm arrives. && lat...lon 4668 9224 4681 9211 4714 9150 4758 9088 4773 9055 4777 9038 4669 9173 4666 9193 4666 9203 4671 9210 4665 9212 4668 9230
LSZ144


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Two Harbors, MN
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location: 47.03, -91.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 241145 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Friday) Issued at 522 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

A potent shortwave moving across northern Minnesota along with a baroclinic zone draped across central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin has produced an area of showers and thunderstorms that are affecting the southern portions of the forecast area with an area of showers and thunderstorms. The shortwave is relatively slow moving, and we have had showers and thunderstorms over the same general area for several hours now. We are beginning to see some of the first signs of weakening, with the stronger convection shifting south, and precipitation coming to an end farther north, and this trend should continue for a few more hours before the precipitation ends for most of the area by mid-late morning. A surface low over southwestern Minnesota associated with this system has helped produce strong northeast winds over western Lake Superior, and we have waves of 3-4 feet being reported at the offshore buoy this morning. This will produce rough conditions on the beaches of Park Point and Wisconsin Point, and I have issued a Beach Hazards statement for the difficult swimming conditions and rip current risk for these areas. The strong northeast wind will also keep temperatures on the chilly side for areas along the shores of Lake Superior, with highs there today only in the 50s, but getting into the 60s and low 70s elsewhere. The low pressure system moves east today and weakens, as the upper level shortwave also moves east, and we should continue to see weakening precipitation chances decrease during the day today. We will be in a lull between systems later today and tonight, with winds turning back to the south as another strong shortwave approaches the area aloft, together with a cold front. Temperatures will be mild overnight with lows only dipping into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

The shortwave and cold front moving towards the area late tonight and Friday will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area on Friday. We should have a decent pool of instability that builds up ahead of the cold front, with highs in the 60s north to 70s in northwest Wisconsin and a plume of moisture extending into the area. The shortwave and stronger winds aloft should also help produce some decent deep layer shear, so it is no surprise to see that SPC has placed parts of the forecast area in a Marginal risk of severe weather Friday evening as the cold front moves through.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 522 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

A much stronger shortwave should move through the area Saturday and Sunday. This wave is much larger and stronger than the ones we have during the first few days of the forecast, and will be accompanied by a surge of cold air that moves into the CWA behind it early next week. Over the weekend temperatures will take a tumble, starting out in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Saturday. Then, a round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening as the upper level low settles over the area and begins to bring colder air into the area, so that by Sunday highs will only be in the upper 50s and 60s, with more scattered showers and thunderstorms with the cold air advection continuing over the area. By Monday temperatures will be below normal, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s, and more chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This upper level low remains over the area through at least the middle part of the work week, with chilly temperatures aloft helping to generate diurnally driven showers, and keeping temperatures in the 50s. In fact, our coldest day this week may be on Wednesday, where some locations may stay in the 40s, with overnight sub- freezing temperatures Wednesday night/Thursday morning. We may begin a slow warming trend toward the end of the work week as the upper low slowly moves off to the east, but I expect us to stay on the cooler side of normal through the end of the work week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

An area of showers over northwest Wisconsin is slowly pulling out of the area, which should leave the terminals dry and with VFR visibilities by no later than 14z. However, behind the showers and thunderstorms an expansive area of IFR/MVFR ceilings lingers over the terminals as of 12z, which are likely to linger for much of the day today. The latest guidance indicates that all but KDLH should return to VFR in the 15-18z time range, with KDLH remaining MVFR with breezy northeast winds helping to keep the stratus over the site. The stratus is expected to expand once again this evening, and I expect all sites to lower to IFR/LIFR ceilings in the 02z-07z time range, then remaining through the end of the TAF period. visibilities should also lower in this time range, though some sites to remain MVFR, while KDLH lowers to IFR, potentially lower.

MARINE. Issued at 522 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

A low pressure system moving from southwestern Minnesota east into Wisconsin today and tonight has produced strong northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots over western Lake Superior. These strong winds are expected to linger through approximately mid day today, before diminishing this afternoon and tonight. Waves will approach 6 feet today before diminishing tonight. Friday the northeast winds linger, but generally at less than 10 knots. Winds switch around to southwest later Friday and Friday night. Waves Friday and Friday night should be less than 2 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 57 49 69 50 / 10 10 50 20 INL 68 51 66 45 / 0 40 60 10 BRD 68 54 73 49 / 10 10 20 10 HYR 69 54 77 51 / 50 10 30 30 ASX 60 50 76 52 / 30 0 40 30

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001.

MN . Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037.

LS . Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LSZ141>148.



SHORT TERM . LE LONG TERM . LE AVIATION . LE MARINE . LE


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45028 - Western Lake Superior 17 mi37 min NE 18 G 18 53°F 56°F5 ft1013.5 hPa (+0.3)49°F
45027 - North of Duluth, MN 18 mi37 min NE 16 G 18 53°F 53°F1013.4 hPa (-0.0)47°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI 22 mi57 min NE 11 G 13 55°F 1012.5 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 27 mi57 min NE 8.9 G 19 53°F 1013.9 hPa
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 28 mi49 min NE 9.9 G 15 53°F 60°F1012.9 hPa47°F
PKBW3 35 mi157 min E 4.1 53°F 1013 hPa (-1.0)50°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Two Harbors, MN4 mi42 minNE 710.00 miOvercast52°F41°F67%1013.2 hPa
Silver Bay, MN19 mi1.7 hrsNE 10 G 1510.00 mi52°F41°F67%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTWM

Wind History from TWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4W3SW3CalmSE5SE4SE3S4CalmN4N4NE10
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NE7NE7NE10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE5S7S6S7S8SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW6SW11S11
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SW4SW5SW4CalmW3W5W6W5W3W4W4NW3W4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.