Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Two Harbors, MN

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 101133 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 633 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

A cold front was moving through the eastern edge of northeast Minnesota at 2 AM and extended from Moose Lake through Duluth to the northwest corner of Cook County. A warm front was located from northwest Pine county east northeast through northwest Wisconsin. Showers and a few thunderstorms were percolating along and behind the cold front. Temps and dew points are not affected by the passing of the front at this hour as temps are in the 60s and 70s, and dew points are in the 60s. Drier air is arriving however, as Walker, Big Fork and International Falls dew points are in the 50s.

As these fronts continue to move through the rest of the forecast area early this morning, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast. The better instability is from the Twin Ports through Pine county and east over all of northwest Wisconsin. This will be the area to see any storms. Behind the fronts, a clearing and drying trend is forecast. Good mixing later today will lower dew points and create gusty winds. Plenty of sun will allow max temps to reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure will be centered over southern Minnesota/northern Iowa tonight. This will leave a bit of a pressure gradient over the area, which should keep the wind from going completely calm. This will also keep the fog from forming. Minimum temps will be in the 50s, with lower 60s along the periphery of Lake Superior.

A weak frontal boundary will move over northeast Minnesota Tuesday. This will be a dry passage as mean RH is less than 45 percent. Decent mixing will occur with gusty winds expected. Max temps should reach the 80s.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Surface ridging will cover the region Tuesday night as the aforementioned high pressure drifts to eastern Wisconsin.

Model differences reveal themselves Wednesday. The GFS and GEM are suffering from convective feedback. The other models, including SREF and GEFS keep the area dry. National Blend of Models is leaning wet and will have some chance pops into Wednesday night. This is in response to some small impulses moving quickly through the region.

Thursday and Thursday night finds the surface ridging departing, allowing a warm and humid southwest flow to set up. Model differences in timing of additional impulses continue. Will keep pops to account for these differences.

A cold front will attempt to move into the area Friday and Friday night. Timing of this front is handled differently by all models, but enough evidence to support chance pops. This cold front will move through Saturday and Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms. Some activity may linger in northwest Wisconsin on Sunday before ending as high pressure arrives.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

A cold front will move past HYR early in the forecast accompanied by showers and possibly and thunderstorm. Rain is trending downward, but will begin the forecast with a VCSH mention and MVFR cigs. Cigs and vsbys will improve to VFR by 14Z as the rain departs. Elsewhere, areas of BR/FG with LIFR/VLIFR cigs and vsbys will improve to VFR by 14Z. Gusty winds are forecast by 16Z and will continue until sunset. Some LLWS at HIB and INL will be nearby around 07Z and last until the end of this forecast.

MARINE. Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

A southwest wind of 5 to 15 knots will affect the nearshore waters into Tuesday evening. A cold front will begin to cross Lake Superior Tuesday night and will turn the wind to the northwest along the north shore, while remaining southwest along the south shore. The wind speed will be subsiding through the night. Waves will be less than 3 feet. The exception will be along the north shore from Grand Marais to Grand Portage may approach 4 feet. Will hold off on a Small Craft Advisory for now as confidence is low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 77 56 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 INL 77 55 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 BRD 77 56 84 59 / 0 0 0 10 HYR 78 53 84 57 / 20 0 0 0 ASX 80 56 87 59 / 20 0 0 0

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

SHORT TERM . GSF LONG TERM . GSF AVIATION . GSF MARINE . GSF

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
45028 - Western Lake Superior	17 mi	39 min	NW 7.8 G 7.8	69°F	69°F	1 ft	1012.4 hPa	60°F
45027 - North of Duluth, MN	18 mi	39 min	NW 3.9 G 5.8	70°F	69°F		1011.9 hPa	56°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI	22 mi	79 min	WSW 5.1 G 7	66°F			1012.5 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN	27 mi	79 min	WNW 8 G 9.9	67°F			1011.5 hPa
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN	28 mi	65 min		71°F	68°F		1012.2 hPa	55°F
PKBW3	35 mi	119 min	NNW 4.1	66°F			1012 hPa (-0.0)	61°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN

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NE2 G6

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SE3 G8

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SE7 G11

S3

SW6 G9

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SW8 G11

SW5 G8

W11 G15

SW7

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Silver Bay, MN	19 mi	2.1 hrs	N 0	10.00 mi		63°F	60°F	94%	1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTWM

Wind History from TWM (wind in knots)

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NW6 G21

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (10,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN

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