Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Two Harbors, MN

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 241145 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Friday) Issued at 522 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

A potent shortwave moving across northern Minnesota along with a baroclinic zone draped across central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin has produced an area of showers and thunderstorms that are affecting the southern portions of the forecast area with an area of showers and thunderstorms. The shortwave is relatively slow moving, and we have had showers and thunderstorms over the same general area for several hours now. We are beginning to see some of the first signs of weakening, with the stronger convection shifting south, and precipitation coming to an end farther north, and this trend should continue for a few more hours before the precipitation ends for most of the area by mid-late morning. A surface low over southwestern Minnesota associated with this system has helped produce strong northeast winds over western Lake Superior, and we have waves of 3-4 feet being reported at the offshore buoy this morning. This will produce rough conditions on the beaches of Park Point and Wisconsin Point, and I have issued a Beach Hazards statement for the difficult swimming conditions and rip current risk for these areas. The strong northeast wind will also keep temperatures on the chilly side for areas along the shores of Lake Superior, with highs there today only in the 50s, but getting into the 60s and low 70s elsewhere. The low pressure system moves east today and weakens, as the upper level shortwave also moves east, and we should continue to see weakening precipitation chances decrease during the day today. We will be in a lull between systems later today and tonight, with winds turning back to the south as another strong shortwave approaches the area aloft, together with a cold front. Temperatures will be mild overnight with lows only dipping into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

The shortwave and cold front moving towards the area late tonight and Friday will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area on Friday. We should have a decent pool of instability that builds up ahead of the cold front, with highs in the 60s north to 70s in northwest Wisconsin and a plume of moisture extending into the area. The shortwave and stronger winds aloft should also help produce some decent deep layer shear, so it is no surprise to see that SPC has placed parts of the forecast area in a Marginal risk of severe weather Friday evening as the cold front moves through.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 522 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

A much stronger shortwave should move through the area Saturday and Sunday. This wave is much larger and stronger than the ones we have during the first few days of the forecast, and will be accompanied by a surge of cold air that moves into the CWA behind it early next week. Over the weekend temperatures will take a tumble, starting out in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Saturday. Then, a round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening as the upper level low settles over the area and begins to bring colder air into the area, so that by Sunday highs will only be in the upper 50s and 60s, with more scattered showers and thunderstorms with the cold air advection continuing over the area. By Monday temperatures will be below normal, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s, and more chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This upper level low remains over the area through at least the middle part of the work week, with chilly temperatures aloft helping to generate diurnally driven showers, and keeping temperatures in the 50s. In fact, our coldest day this week may be on Wednesday, where some locations may stay in the 40s, with overnight sub- freezing temperatures Wednesday night/Thursday morning. We may begin a slow warming trend toward the end of the work week as the upper low slowly moves off to the east, but I expect us to stay on the cooler side of normal through the end of the work week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

An area of showers over northwest Wisconsin is slowly pulling out of the area, which should leave the terminals dry and with VFR visibilities by no later than 14z. However, behind the showers and thunderstorms an expansive area of IFR/MVFR ceilings lingers over the terminals as of 12z, which are likely to linger for much of the day today. The latest guidance indicates that all but KDLH should return to VFR in the 15-18z time range, with KDLH remaining MVFR with breezy northeast winds helping to keep the stratus over the site. The stratus is expected to expand once again this evening, and I expect all sites to lower to IFR/LIFR ceilings in the 02z-07z time range, then remaining through the end of the TAF period. visibilities should also lower in this time range, though some sites to remain MVFR, while KDLH lowers to IFR, potentially lower.

MARINE. Issued at 522 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

A low pressure system moving from southwestern Minnesota east into Wisconsin today and tonight has produced strong northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots over western Lake Superior. These strong winds are expected to linger through approximately mid day today, before diminishing this afternoon and tonight. Waves will approach 6 feet today before diminishing tonight. Friday the northeast winds linger, but generally at less than 10 knots. Winds switch around to southwest later Friday and Friday night. Waves Friday and Friday night should be less than 2 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 57 49 69 50 / 10 10 50 20 INL 68 51 66 45 / 0 40 60 10 BRD 68 54 73 49 / 10 10 20 10 HYR 69 54 77 51 / 50 10 30 30 ASX 60 50 76 52 / 30 0 40 30

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001.

MN . Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037.

LS . Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LSZ141>148.



SHORT TERM . LE LONG TERM . LE AVIATION . LE MARINE . LE

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
45028 - Western Lake Superior	17 mi	37 min	NE 18 G 18	53°F	56°F	5 ft	1013.5 hPa (+0.3)	49°F
45027 - North of Duluth, MN	18 mi	37 min	NE 16 G 18	53°F	53°F		1013.4 hPa (-0.0)	47°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI	22 mi	57 min	NE 11 G 13	55°F			1012.5 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN	27 mi	57 min	NE 8.9 G 19	53°F			1013.9 hPa
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN	28 mi	49 min	NE 9.9 G 15	53°F	60°F		1012.9 hPa	47°F
PKBW3	35 mi	157 min	E 4.1	53°F			1013 hPa (-1.0)	50°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN

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NE9 G17

NE5 G9

NE7 G17

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NE14 G23

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1 day ago

SE2 G5

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SE2

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Two Harbors, MN	4 mi	42 min	NE 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	52°F	41°F	67%	1013.2 hPa
Silver Bay, MN	19 mi	1.7 hrs	NE 10 G 15	10.00 mi		52°F	41°F	67%	1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTWM

Wind History from TWM (wind in knots)

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NE12 G19

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NE6

1 day ago

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN

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