Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Two Harbors, MN

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141153 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 553 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 552 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Snow is persisting longer over the Arrowhead this morning as a low level convergence zone along and east of the inverted trough axis, and the upper level shortwave moving more slowly across the area than models have depicted. Some locations are observing visibilities in the 1 to 3 mile range as far west as Crane Lake and Hibbing. Snowfall reports from overnight do not support extending the Winter Storm Warning, but have decided to just extend the Winter Weather Advisory into both the lakeshore zones and until noon today to allow the snow to fully taper off to flurries.

UPDATE Issued at 540 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Updated below for 12z Aviation Discussion.

SHORT TERM. (Today through Sunday) Issued at 351 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

A weak low pressure system that has moved across the Upper Midwest on Friday and Friday night is now over eastern Lake Superior/upper Michigan. An inverted trough extends west to lie across the Minnesota Arrowhead. Snow is ongoing within the trough axis, with just enough onshore component for the very tip of the Arrowhead to detect some lake enhancement to the snowfall. Higher in the atmosphere there is a shortwave that is in the process of moving across the Arrowhead as well, and this is all serving to maintain the snowfall this morning over the area. Over the next 3 to 6 hours the upper level shortwave will begin to move away again, and the surface inverted trough is expected to weaken, which should allows the snowfall to rapidly diminish over northeast Minnesota this morning. For now we have the Winter Weather Advisory and Warning expiring at 12z, which for now appears reasonable, though we will have to re-evaluate visibility trends and the latest snowfall reports closer to expiration time to make any determinations about extending or not. With the inverted trough sliding southeast, the lake effects shift to the South Shore this morning, with perhaps some actual banding setting up by mid morning. These may produce some periods of heavier snowfall rate along the south shore, which after they set up around mid morning, should continue through the day and into this evening before diminishing/shifting east overnight. In the meantime, the rest of the area should experience clearing skies today, and enough cold air advection to keep temperatures from rising very far today, and then dropping rather dramatically tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Have made the overnight min temperature forecast for tonight on the cold end of guidance, though if we get light enough winds in here, it could be colder yet than what I have put in. Currently, I have forecast mins in the teens below zero over much of northern Minnesota, with single digits near and below zero for most of Wisconsin. The high pressure ridge will also keep temperatures on the cold side for Sunday, with highs only in the single digits above zero.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 351 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Fairly quiet conditions are expected for the extended with no major system on the horizon. There may be a few chances for light snow, but a lack of moisture will keep these chances in check. Temperatures will start the period below normal before warming near to above normal for late next week and into the weekend.

High pressure will shift to the southeast Sunday night as a shortwave trough moves into the region and passes through Monday morning. This may squeeze out a little snow through the Borderlands, but with little in the way of moisture to work with, it appears to be a dry passage for most. However, there could be some lake effect snows across the south Shore of Lake Superior with persistent northwest winds and decent lake effect signals in the GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM. A stronger shortwave and upper low will dive southeast out of Canada and into the northern Great Lakes for Tuesday into Wednesday. A lack of moisture again looks to be the limiting factor for more widespread snowfall and only the GFS bring measurable QPF through the region with the system. A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive behind this system for Tuesday night into Wednesday and will keep below normal temperatures in place along with chances for lake effect across the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Another subtle shortwave embedded in the northwest flow aloft will then pass by the Northland Wednesday night. While it appears there will be a bit more moisture for this system to work with, the bulk of the QPF looks to pass to our north and east and keep the Northland mainly dry outside of snow showers across the Arrowhead. Ridging aloft then starts to build in for Thursday into Friday as warm air advection brings near to above normal temperatures to the region. With normal temperatures this time of year in the lower half of the 20s, temperatures will still be below freezing for both Thursday and Friday. Overall forecast confidence takes a nose dive for Friday into the weekend with major model differences in place. The GFS and GEM move an upper low through the region with that feature practically non-existent on the ECMWF. Keeping light snow chances in for this period, but could very well end up dry.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 540 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

MVFR and IFR conditions are seen around the terminals this morning aside from KINL which is VFR and should see mainly clear skies push in shortly. Light snow showers linger across the region this morning but are expected to move east of the terminals by mid to late morning. Ceilings will slowly rise to MVFR and then VFR by this afternoon, although KHYR may remain in the MVFR into this evening. Anthropogenic snows are currently seen at KHIB and are leading to IFR visibilities. Winds are expected to shift slightly by mid-morning and move this band of snow away from terminal. Winds will be gusty today from the northwest at 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots through this afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 351 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Winds will become northwesterly this morning in response to low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west setting up a tight pressure gradient. Wind speeds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots, highest along the Bayfield Peninsula to Saxon Harbor this afternoon and evening. Waves will also increase to 3 to 5 feet near Saxon Harbor this afternoon with most areas remaining around 2 feet or less. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued from Port Wing to Saxon Harbor for this afternoon and evening. Winds will then diminish tonight to 6 to 12 knots and become southwesterly Sunday and Sunday night at 5 to 15 knots as high pressure passes to the south. Waves will be around 2 feet or less for Sunday and Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 12 -11 4 -3 / 30 0 0 0 INL 6 -16 6 -2 / 10 0 10 10 BRD 8 -19 4 -3 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 17 -9 8 -3 / 30 10 0 0 ASX 21 1 10 1 / 80 70 10 0

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ004.

MN . Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ011-012-020- 021.

LS . Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for LSZ146>148.



UPDATE . LE SHORT TERM . LE LONG TERM . BJH AVIATION . BJH MARINE . BJH

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN	28 mi	64 min	WNW 8 G 12	21°F			1008.4 hPa	14°F
PKBW3	35 mi	148 min	Calm	18°F			1010 hPa (+0.0)	16°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Two Harbors, MN	4 mi	33 min	NNW 6 G 17	10.00 mi	Overcast	19°F	8°F	63%	1006.4 hPa
Silver Bay, MN	19 mi	33 min	NW 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	19°F	12°F	73%	1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTWM

Wind History from TWM (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN

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