Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Two Harbors, MN

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:17PM Saturday August 17, 2019 7:32 PM CDT (00:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:35PMMoonset 6:59AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ144 Expires:201908051545;;157648 Fzus73 Kdlh 051455 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 955 Am Cdt Mon Aug 5 2019 Lsz142>147-162-051545- /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0028.000000t0000z-190805t1545z/ 955 Am Cdt Mon Aug 5 2019
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 1045 am cdt... For the following areas... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Port wing to sand island wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 951 am cdt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to 40 knots and small hail, located 8 nm southeast of larsmont, or 21 nm east of duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 40 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will be near... Herbster around 1015 am cdt. Bayfield peninsula sea caves around 1030 am cdt. Sand island around 1035 am cdt. Other locations impacted by the strong Thunderstorm include brule point. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds, high waves, dangerous lightning, and heavy rains. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 300 pm cdt for northeastern minnesota...northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4669 9229 4668 9224 4672 9224 4679 9214 4715 9149 4731 9124 4693 9087 4691 9096 4684 9110 4683 9121 4673 9151 4666 9193 4666 9203 4671 9210 4666 9211 4662 9221 4663 9228 time...mot...loc 1453z 264deg 41kt 4689 9159
LSZ144


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Two Harbors, MN
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location: 47.03, -91.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 180001
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
701 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Update
Issued at 701 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
the cold front is progressing into the northwest corner of
koochiching county with showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of
it. Reflectivity has been diminishing as this activity moves east,
and MLCAPE has also been decreasing. Not expecting any severe,
but a few strong storms are possible until sunset when the best
instability is lost. Have made some adjustments to pops to better
time this activity as it moves east.

Short term (this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 341 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
thunderstorms are the main concern this evening as a cold front
advances toward the region for tonight. The airmass ahead of the
front is reasonably juicy, with dewpoints over northwest minnesota
into the low 60s, with lower values farther east. Also, there is
some 20-30knots of bulk shear. On the synoptic scale, there is an
upper level trough with an upper low over northern
saskatchewan manitoba, and a decent associated shortwaves that is
moving from montana into north dakota this afternoon, with a
leading wave over central north dakota. These are going to produce
a good dynamic environment that will support stronger
thunderstorms this evening, of which some may be severe. It's a
somewhat marginal environment for severe weather for the next few
hours, which will take careful watching. That said, have kept
pops in the likely to categorical range for tonight and early
Sunday before the front and associated showers and thunderstorms
sweep out of the area. Have kept overnight lows on the mild side,
with lows ranging from the mid 50s in the northwest where the
front will be closest, to the low 60s over northwest wisconsin
where clouds and warm air advection will keep it warmer overnight.

Once the front moves through on Sunday I expect the precipitation
to move out of the area by mid afternoon, with a much drier and
cooler airmass moving into the area from the northwest. The
relatively tight pressure gradient and deep mixing should help
push gusts during the afternoon to around 20 mph, especially for
northern minnesota. Sunshine and the dry air will allow
temperatures to get into the lower to middle 70s despite the
cooler airmass moving into the area. Upstream this afternoon it is
only in the 60s over southern saskatchewan and northern montana.

The elevation change will help it warm too. Sunday night to remain
dry, with light winds and clearing skies it will be a cool night.

Overnight lows should dip into the mid 40s to low 50s, with the
coolest values along the iron range.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 341 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
a fairly dry weather pattern through next week with just a chance
for showers and storms on Tuesday, then dry until Friday into
Saturday. Temperatures begin the week above normal with highs near
80 on Monday, then cooling off mid-week with highs as cool as the
upper 60s to near 70 on Wednesday before returning to a warming
trend late-week into next weekend. Total rainfall amounts perhaps a
tenth to quarter inch of rain Mon night into Tuesday, then a better
chance for higher rainfall amounts Friday Saturday, though as noted
below confidence in this forecast is below average given it is a
week away at this point.

On the synoptic scale a fairly progressive pattern at upper levels
with a series of fairly strong upper level jets evolving across
southern canada through the week and into next weekend. While the
mid-level flow across the northern great plains upper midwest and
adjacent parts of manitoba and ontario will be fairly zonal on
Monday, an east-west oriented cold front will starting sliding
southward across canada late Monday into Tuesday with a very subtle
mid-level trough axis approaching from the west associated with a
stacked low over hudson bay. With an ample amount of elevated
instability on the order of 1000-1500 j kg MUCAPE along with some
modest mid upper level winds (deep layer shear on the order of 35-
45 knots), a few strong storms are possible Monday night into
Tuesday along and ahead of the cold front as it tracks south. Storms
will be elevated with the primary threat from the strongest storms
being large hail, with the best chance for any strong to severe
storms occurring in north-central minnesota during Monday evening.

Showers and a few thunderstorms linger through the day Tuesday as the
front moves through, but severe threat will likely be low. Guidance
has trended slightly faster with the arrival of the front, and if
this trend continues there might be sunny skies across most of
northeast minnesota by Tuesday afternoon as the front exits. Highs
on Monday near 80, then in the low 70s (ne mn) to near 80 (nw wi) on
Tuesday as the front moves through.

Cooler mid-week as a mid-level longwave ridge builds in from the
west across the great plains and southern canada. Highs in the mid
60s to low 70s Wednesday and Thursday, with lows coldest Wednesday
night in the 40s - perhaps a few 30s possible across the usual cold
spots in inland parts of northeast minnesota. A warming trend then
late-week as a the ridge axis at low mid levels moves across the
upper midwest and warmer air advects into the region with highs
climbing into the upper 70s to near 80 on Friday and Saturday.

Another front approaches from the northwest on Friday into Saturday
which could kick off another round of showers and storms, though
there is a broad spread in the timing and strength of the front and
related mass fields. Certainly not a lock at this point, but most
solutions favor a broad chance for rainfall (possibly over an inch)
at some point between Friday and Saturday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 642 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
a cold front was located just to the west of inl at the start of
the forecast. Showers and thunderstorms were developing along and
ahead of the front. Storms will be in the vicinity of inl,
eventually tracking east through the night.VFR before the
front storms, MVFR with the showers and storms with some br.

Timing is in question and will vcts until the storms arrive. The
cold front, along with the showers and storms should exit the
terminals from west to east after 18z with a return toVFR.

Marine
Issued at 341 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
a chance for thunderstorms late tonight into early Sunday morning
across parts of western lake superior, especially in the twin ports
and east along the south shore. Winds weak out of the southeast
today tonight around 5 knots or so, then becoming southwest to west
on Sunday and Monday at 5 to 10 knots.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 60 74 51 78 80 60 0 0
inl 55 72 52 78 90 60 0 0
brd 60 74 52 78 70 20 0 0
hyr 61 76 49 79 80 60 0 0
asx 62 77 52 80 60 60 0 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Gsf
short term... Le
long term... Jjm
aviation... Gsf
marine... Jjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45028 - Western Lake Superior 17 mi32 min S 5.8 G 7.8 73°F 67°F1 ft1005.8 hPa (-1.7)65°F
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 28 mi50 min SSW 7 G 15 82°F 67°F1005.6 hPa60°F
PKBW3 35 mi152 min SSW 6 83°F 1008 hPa (-1.0)60°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Two Harbors, MN4 mi57 minSSE 610.00 miFair79°F62°F58%1006.8 hPa
Silver Bay, MN19 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair73°F59°F61%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTWM

Wind History from TWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmNW3CalmS5SW3SW3S4S9S10S11
G16
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1 day ago--CalmCalm----Calm----CalmCalmCalm--CalmSW3CalmW3CalmSE7SE3SE5SW3S5SE3E5
2 days agoCalmN4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5SW4SW6S9S7SE6S8
G15
S8--SE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.