Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakesdale, WA

SYNOPSIS
The weekend into the much of next week will bring a break in the wet weather with continued mild temperatures for November.
Wet and windy weather returns Thursday and Friday with snow on the mountain passes starting Thursday night.

DISCUSSION
Tonight-Tuesday: A quiet and mild start to the the forecast period with an upper-level ridge over the Northwest. Mid and high clouds are spilling into the region over the ridge but will have little impact other that filtering sunshine at times.
Overnight lows will be chilly with modest radiational cooling promoting fog development within the valleys of northern WA and North Idaho and near larger water bodies. The Palouse will remain fog-free due to increased easterly winds developing overnight and becoming breezy (10-20 mph) at times early Sunday morning. A weak front will dent the ridge Monday morning bringing a band of clouds and slight chance for light showers across the Cascades and Selkirks of NE WA and N ID. Given the warmer temperatures aloft under the ridge, any precipitation will be very light and mainly fall as rain. The front will bring a slight increase in winds with gusts to 20 mph. The ridge will rebound again on Tuesday with light winds, morning fog, and afternoon sunshine.

Wednesday-Saturday: A pattern shift commences going into the later half of the week and weekend. A trough approaches early Wednesday with a developing warm front over the Inland NW along with increasing clouds over northern WA/ID. 20% chance for light precipitation from this feature but little in the way of QPF.
Precipitation chances will ramp up Thursday and Friday as the trough moves inland. There is good agreement amongst the models for a bulk of the trough's energy to split while encountering the ridge which is driving the slow, nearly 48 hour, eastward progression. Consequently, despite the best forcing diving south of the INW, there should be appreciable precipitation with 50-90% for at least a tenth region-wide over the two-day period and 50% or greater for a quarter of an inch or more away from the lee of the Cascades which will experience some shadowing by Friday.

There are two main impacts from the late week system that will need to be monitored closely. 1)Gusty winds with a cold front Thursday afternoon and night and 2)Snow on the mountain passes.
There is a 30% chance for wind gusts greater than 30 mph Thursday afternoon and night and imagine these probabilities will increase further with models showing 850mb temperatures cooling from near 9C in the morning to -1C Thursday night.
Strongest winds look to impact areas along and south of I-90 stretching from Coeur D Alene to Moses Lake and southward. Snow levels will also be crashing Thursday afternoon and evening with rain transitioning to snow for nearly all mountain passes.
Precipitation will become more showery in the post frontal air mass but still capable of several inches of snow and winter driving conditions. If you are crossing the passes Thursday evening-night, be prepared for changing conditions.

Another storm system will be on its heels for the upcoming weekend.
Significant mountain snow will be possible on the Cascade Crest and to lesser degree, the Idaho Panhandle. Moisture with this system will encounter a cooler air mass left in place Friday.
This will also come with more pronounced westerly flow favoring these orographically favored slopes. Early probabilities from the NBM indicate a 60% chance for at least six of snow for Stevens and Washington Passes and 40% chance for Lookout Pass.
Looking at probabilities for twelve inches, 30% for Stevens/Washington and 10% for Lookout Pass. Would not rule out some snow making it down to 2000 feet for some areas of Northeastern WA and North Idaho at the onset of this event but these details come with lower confidence. We are getting into the second week of November, it's just a matter of time for these northern valleys. /sb

AVIATION
06Z TAFS: Scattered to broken mid and high clouds crossing into Central WA and drifting eastward overnight has lowered probabilities for dense fog for GEG-SFF for Sunday morning.
If the fog can materialize, the easterly winds could advect the fog into GEG. Otherwise, there is lower confidence given the incoming cloud shield. Easterly winds will be elevated for PUW through the night with speeds near 15kts Sunday morning. LWS, MWH, EAT have high probabilities for VFR skies and light winds.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions to persist for KEAT, KMWH, KPUW, and KLWS. There is low confidence for fog redevelopment at KGEG and KSFF given increasing high clouds.

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 33 50 36 50 34 51 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 Coeur d'Alene 32 52 38 52 37 51 / 0 0 0 40 20 0 Pullman 35 55 39 55 39 54 / 0 0 0 10 20 0 Lewiston 37 60 43 60 43 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 Colville 28 49 30 49 28 48 / 0 0 10 30 0 0 Sandpoint 30 49 35 49 35 48 / 0 0 0 60 30 20 Kellogg 34 54 43 54 43 51 / 0 0 0 40 60 20 Moses Lake 32 52 35 52 29 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 36 53 40 53 38 51 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 Omak 33 49 35 49 33 50 / 0 0 10 10 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
ID...None.