Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 3:27 AM   Moonset 3:25 PM

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FXUS63 KFGF 042340 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 640 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives Monday/Tuesday.



DISCUSSION
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Large upper trough in place across south central Canada/Northern Plains, with the main upper low having pulled northeast away from the area earlier today toward Hudson Bay. However two other shortwave troughs continue to dig south and eastward through the forecast area today and another currently upstream across southern Saskatchewan. The one digging through ND/MN has been responsible for the cloud cover today and scattered showers. Much of the cloud cover now breaking up and becoming more cellular across the forecast area.
This suggests much of it will dissipate into the evening/overnight hours. However there is a weak sfc reflection/low developing across central ND which could allow some lingering cloud cover in that region into the overnight hours and maybe a few isolated showers hanging on a bit longer as well associated with that secondary wave to the northwest. That wave however is expected to weaken and washout as it quickly moves east into early Sunday. This should allow for clearing skies with southerly winds and high pressure to build into the region for much of Sunday as upper ridging builds in aloft.

A developing southwestern US upper trough will be the next weather-maker of note as we move ahead into the work week.
Little has changed in the overall setup from previous runs with the negatively tilted trough setting up Monday and shortwave ejecting northward. Still anticipate the greater threat of severe potential to remain to the south of the forecast area, but continued monitoring with timing could push that potential further north. Southerly flow to increase ahead of that system and will send winds pushing toward advisory criteria with H85 flow in the 30-35kt range, and mixed layer winds in the 30-39kt range. Ensembles topped out in the 30 kts ranges as well, so will have to assess for advisory in the coming shifts.

In general, another round of rain with the main wave lifting northward through the area Monday into Tuesday. The main upper level system then begins to shift with the upper level trough breaking down and shifting east. A piece breaks off to the southwest, with more northerly flow in place. Overall confidence in any precipitation chances and dry period decreases, with a generally cooler pattern expected for mid to late week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites.
Scattered to broken mid level cloud cover is expected to diminish gradually this evening, with perhaps a very brief period of MVFR CIGs just after sunset. There is a low chance for patchy fog heading into Sunday morning, primarily around KDVL.
Look for winds to increase slightly Sunday morning through around midday, then shift slowly to the south.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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