Sunday, September20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nevis, MN

Version 3.4 		NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:29PM Sunday September 20, 2020 4:25 AM CDT (09:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:04AMMoonset 8:22PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nevis, MN
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location: 47.08, -94.9     debug

Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 200845 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 345 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Monday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Challenge today will be temps with high clouds and thick smoke expected to clear the area late this afternoon and evening. Will see strong south winds develop quickly this morning with breezy conditions from sustained 20 to 25 mph winds with gusts 30 to 35 mph ahead of a wind shift this afternoon. Within the southerly wind regime a brief isolated WAA induced shower or possibly thunderstorm exists though most areas will remain dry. Highs today will depend on clearing line and smoke thickness though temps will be starting off relatively warm just under 60 this morning. Will go for highs mid 70s west where skies clear early and a bit lower for the valley and NW MN. There is high uncertainty in temp forecast this afternoon. Westerly winds behind the fropa will push the smoke east and skies should be mostly clear overnight into Monday with breezy conditions developing once again Monday afternoon along and north of Hwy 2. Another warm Sept day in store to start the work week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s south.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

SUMMARY . Ensemble guidance continues to suggest a warming trend through the early period with a cold front midweek giving a slight cooldown to seasonal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation impacts from this front are expected to be limited to showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. Late in the period, there are hints at cooldown possible, although guidance spread is too great to discern details at this time.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY . Following frontal passage Monday, not much of a dent in afternoon highs are expected as there is very good agreement among ensembles on continued unseasonably warm temperatures.

WEDNESDAY . Ensemble and deterministic solutions are in good agreements to a wave traversing towards North Dakota Wednesday. Moisture return appears to be a bit stronger this time around, however it's still meager at best. Given limited instability from GEFS plumes (even the outliers only max out to 750 J/kg), general expectation is to keep things as showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY . Ridging is expected over the area on Thursday following frontal passage. Discrepancies between ensembles get larger this weekend as troughing begins to take hold in the western United States. NBM does continue to hint at a possible cooldown late in the period associated with this troughing. There are discrepancies as to the evolution of the wave, so details at this time are difficult to discern. At this time, no impactful weather is expected.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

VFR thru the pd. There will considerable high and some mid level cloudiness thru Sunday afternoon. Gusty south winds will occur ahead of a front Sunday daytime with gusts near 30 kts in E ND/RRV. Also a layer of smoke will be present, likely in the 15k-20k ft agl range. There is a small chance for a shower or t-storm along the front Sunday afternoon but it is very slight.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ND . None. MN . None.

SHORT TERM . JK LONG TERM . JK/Perroux AVIATION . Riddle

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Park Rapids Municipal Airport, MN15 mi32 minSSE 1410.00 miFair56°F46°F72%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPKD

Wind History from PKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE6SE6S5S5S7S6SW11S11S9S12SE14SE11S13S11SE8SE9SE9SE10SE10SE10SE9SE11S14
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3SE6SE7S8S10S10SW11
G15		S5
G16		SW9S9S7S6S6SE7S8S9S9S8SE5SE4S6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE4SE4CalmE66NE5NE8E3NE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.