Monday, April6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nevis, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:05PM Monday April 6, 2020 11:20 AM CDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 5:13PMMoonset 5:34AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nevis, MN
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location: 47.08, -94.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 061506 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1006 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1006 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Currently, high presssure sits over the Great Lakes region with a low centered over central MT. There are a few showers in an area of low/mid level warm air advection leaving the area near Wadena this morning. I don't expect these to linger too much longer as they should be east of Wadena by early afternoon. Sky grids were a little too cloudy this morning, so updated sky based on latest satellite trends. Otherwise, no major changes made with this update and no impacts expected today other than the continued flooding and potential thunderstorms tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 648 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Showers are pushing eastward this morning with much of the activity east of the Red River. Partial clearing is occurring to the northwest of this activity. Temperatures this morning range from the lower 30s in the Devils Lake Basin to the lower 40s near the Fergus Falls area.

SHORT TERM. (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

A few showers continue working across southern portions of the CWA this morning with thunderstorms moving across Sargent county into Richland County. This morning's activity has formed along a stationary boundary draped across southeastern North Dakota into west-central Minnesota. Short range ensemble and blended guidance keeps this activity going through around 14Z, when it pushes out of the forecast area and into central portions of Minnesota.

Quiet, but cloudy conditions prevail through much of today with high temperatures climbing into the 40s where we still carry snow depth, and well into the 50s where there is no snow on the ground. Current temperature guidance allows upper 40s for northeastern North Dakota today; however, like the past couple of days, temperatures could struggle to reach forecast values. Heading into the evening and overnight, we will see our rain chances increase as a shortwave approaches the area. Ahead of this H7 wave, CAPE values are expected to increase and facilitate the development of thunderstorms during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Still some uncertainty regarding both dew points and forecasted CAPE (750 to 1000 J/Kg HREF), but there is consensus that we could see a stronger storm or two form south of Highway 200.

Heading into Tuesday, we will see gradual clearing from west to east, with temperatures climbing into the 50s across much of the area.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Besides potential for advisory level winds Wednesday, minimal weather impacts during the long range forecast periods.

A strong cold front passes over our CWA Wednesday, and the main impacts will be a period of windy conditions due to CAA and good mixing potential. Momentum transfer from BUFKIT from available models indicates potential for wind gusts 40-50mph west of the Red River Valley in ND (particularly the Devils Lake Basin). This matches what we usually see with more of a west-northwest BL flow (stronger winds in our west).

Split-flow pattern with stronger north-northwest flow over southern Canada favors below average temps through the long range periods, but less impactful moisture potential. While we do have potential for several mid level trough passages within this northwest flow, the progressive northern track favors minimal precip amounts over our CWA (rain or snow). NBM probabilities/GEFS plumes both show at most 0.1" of liquid equivalent with any waves that pass our CWA and clustering is towards a few hundredths (ultimately may be non measurable passages). Best chances will tend to be near the International Border. Daytime temperatures are still expected to be above freezing despite the cooler pattern, though nighttime temps should be in 20s (or possibly teens).

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020

VFR conditions this morning prevail with deteriorating CIGs by mid-morning. MVFR CIGs are expected from mid-morning through early afternoon with IFR ceilings expected later this afternoon into the evening hours. Rain pushes into the region after sunset with the best chances occurring at KFAR, KBJI, and KTVF, but we could see activity in the vicinity of KGFK as well. After midnight, we could see thunderstorm development south of Hwy 2 with a strong storm or two along and south of the I-94 corridor; however, there is lower confidence in this solution.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Overnight low temperatures will remain above freezing for much of the Red River Valley for much of the night. The relatively mild weather will allow the rivers to continue flowing overnight and cause river levels to rise in some locations. Most of the forecast points will rise during the work week as the recent snowfall melts.

Minor to moderate flood levels are expected with the exception of major levels at Harwood and West Fargo Diversion.

At Fargo the Red River was slowly falling as another crest is expected as the recent snowfall melts. The forthcoming crest at Fargo will be lower than the previous crest. The initial snowmelt rise is slowing at Grand Forks and Oslo this weekend with points north of continuing to rise. A secondary rise is expected this week for the southern forecast points when the recent snowfall melts. A prolonged period of high water is expected at Halstad, Grand Forks and Oslo. A crest is expected in mid April near Major flood stage for Drayton and Pembina.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ND . None. MN . None.

River point flood warnings continue across portions of the region. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for detailed information on specific locations.

UPDATE . Knutsvig SHORT TERM . Lynch LONG TERM . DJR AVIATION . Lynch HYDROLOGY . JH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Park Rapids Municipal Airport, MN15 mi2.5 hrsE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F32°F76%1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPKD

Wind History from PKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S12S11S11
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1 day agoCalmCalmSE7SE5SE5SE6S3SE4E3CalmW3E5SE3SE4SE6SE6SE8SE7SE7SE9S12S10S11
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2 days agoNW15
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NW14NW12NW13W12NW10NW9NW8NW7NW4NW3W6W3W3NW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.