Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
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|Sunrise 8:00AM||Sunset 4:40PM||Wednesday December 11, 2019 2:58 PM CST (20:58 UTC)||Moonrise 4:23PM||Moonset 7:09AM||Illumination 100%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nevis, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KFGF 111759 AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1159 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019
UPDATE. Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019
Many areas have fallen out of wind chill advisory category and so the Wind Chill Advisory will be allowed to expire at noon. Lowered high temps a bit for the afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 957 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019
Temperatures were slowly rising this morning from the roughly 15 to 25 below lows. Winds were west at 5 to 10 mph and wind chills were generally 25 to 35 below across the forecast area. Wind chills are expected to rise out of the wind chill advisory territory by noon. So going wind chill advisory remains in effect until noon.
UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019
Temperatures remain firmly into the teens and twenties below zero with wind chills continuing into the twenties and thirties below zero. There continues to be a breeze out of the west near the western Red River Valley contributing to the frigid wind chills. This will be the case through mid morning before getting into the single digits below zero by midday. The sun will great us this morning with clear skies above the arctic high passing through. Gradual warming continues through the afternoon and evening as cloud cover increases and WAA starts ahead of tonight's clipper system.
SHORT TERM. (Today through Thursday) Issued at 312 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019
Main highlights today through Thursday include cold conditions followed by a chance for light snow.
Surface high pressure housing an arctic air mass slides southeast through the Northern Plains today. Air temperatures will largely stay in the teens to twenties below zero through the morning. Coldest observed temperature as of 3:30 AM is -31 F at KBDR in southeast Hubbard County, Minnesota, and is collocated within a clear air local minima of sensed IR temperatures by GOES-16. A westerly breeze of 5-15 mph still remains mainly north of I-94, highest along the western Red River Valley. While "warmer" here, elevated winds are contributing to wind chills well into the negative 30s. Elsewhere where it is not as breezy, very cold air temperatures are still contributing to wind chills into the negative 20s. These conditions will continue through the morning before air temperatures begin to rise as the surface high moves southeast of the area and low level WAA begins. Letting the Wind Chill Advisory expire at noon still looks appropriate, and should mark the end of wind chill concerns until perhaps this weekend.
Clear skies this morning will give way to increasing clouds from the southwest. This comes ahead of the next clipper to move through from the northwest tonight. This clipper is expected to bring light snow to the area tonight into early Thursday. Dry air associated with the arctic air mass ahead of the clipper will have to be overcome and is noted by top down column saturation in forecast soundings. This leads the belief that radar returns will start to show this afternoon into eastern ND, however likely will initially be virga. The column eventually does saturate given the persistent synoptic forcing and gradual moisture advection. There continues to be a signature for fgen in the H9-7 layer, however this looks to outpace the clipper and saturation. There could be some banding show up on radar, but snow will not make it to the ground until perhaps the backside of the band just when it should move away.
Synoptic forcing will drive the majority of snowfall production, and indeed the column is largely within the DGZ. However forcing will be on the weak side along with meager moisture availability. Therefore light amounts of snow between 1-3 inches are expected. Currently the majority of snow will fall along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor. Best chances for seeing higher end amounts resides near the I-94 corridor. Given the lack of fgen, don't think any "surprise" higher amounts are likely. Snow enters western FA around 6 PM today, and exits the eastern FA around 6 AM Thursday. Winds look to be relatively light with this system.
The rest of Thursday will be briefly quiet with light winds and highs generally (and finally) above zero. This comes ahead of the next clipper expected to move into the area Thursday night. Details on that system are in the long term discussion.
LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 312 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019
Main impacts for the period will be with snow Thursday night into Friday.
Thursday night and Friday . There is good agreement on a fairly vigorous shortwave clipper moving through for the end of the work week. The 700mb low tracks just to the north of the international border and there is only some weak mid-level frontogenesis with the system. On the other hand, the shortwave is pretty potent and some negative EPV is available for mesoscale enhancement. Will continue the trend of bumping up precip amounts a bit from the blended solution. Will not pinpoint the location of any banding potential at this time but hopefully get a general idea of several inches of snow possible. Cold air advection coming in behind the surface low on Friday will also kick winds up. Blowing snow model has the potential for some patchy blowing snow west of the RRV, and it seems reasonable to include at this point.
Saturday through Tuesday . Another cold snap comes down behind the clipper for the weekend, with temps again close to or below the zero mark for highs. There is some indication of a weak shortwave moving through on Monday, but pretty quick moving so will keep things dry for now. Northwesterly flow for Tuesday, but differences in the position of the Hudson Bay low and therefore heights over the Northern Plains abound. There is not any strong signal in the ensemble percentile plots for either temperature or precip, so will keep dry and cold forecast that the blend gives us. Temps will be a bit higher than the weekend with highs getting above zero, but still well below seasonal averages.
AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019
Satellite indicate cirrus clouds were moving in from the west. Mid level clouds were over central ND and an IFR deck over far southwest ND. Expect cloud decks in the western ND to continue shifting east this afternoon and tonight. Expect MVFR conditions to move into the western and southern zones after about 9 pm CST and should move east out of the area around noon Thu. Some IFR conditions will be possible in the southeastern ND and west central MN late tonight and Thu morning.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ND . Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN . Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ001>009-013>017- 022>024-027>032-040.
UPDATE . JH SHORT TERM . CJ LONG TERM . JR AVIATION . JH
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|Park Rapids Municipal Airport, MN||15 mi||65 min||WSW 3||10.00 mi||Fair||1°F||-9°F||62%||1031.2 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KPKD
Wind History from PKD (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||NW||NW||W||NW||W||Calm||W||W||W||W||W||NW||NW||NW||W||W||NW||NW||W||NW||W||W||W||W|
|2 days ago||N||NE||NE||NE||N||NE|
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Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (15,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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