DISCUSSION
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Synopsis
The 500mb ridging that is overhead today will shift eastward tonight into Saturday, as a low over Alberta also tracks to the east. This will serve to flatten the ridge and result in west or southwest flow for the remainder of the forecast. There will be periodic waves tracking through, so there are periodic chances for showers and storms throughout as well. Overall, temperatures will stay on the hot side and there may not be much of a break from the high level smoke.

The heat
Starting to see some lower 90s temperatures across southeast North Dakota with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. No doubt it is hot and humid. The surface boundary/cold front is poking into the Devils Lake region, with noticeably cooler temperatures and less humidity behind it. Unfortunately, the 500mb flow pattern is pretty much paralleling it, so it will not be moving too much further eastward. So only the Devils Lake region may see a respite from the heat and humidity today and tonight. Will have to keep an eye on these parameters again Saturday, but both should be just a tad lower. Plus there may be Saturday morning cloud cover around from any nocturnal convection, and the seemingly continuous upper level smoke.

Severe Weather
The severe weather threat tonight is only a 1/5 risk due to the low overall confidence in how it may unfold. At this point, the above mentioned surface boundary is the main focus area. During the heat of the day today, most activity should stay capped, with 700mb temperatures of +12 to +14C. There has been a parade of weak echoes tracking north-northeast into Canada along the front, but only trace to a few hundredths of actual precipitation has reached the ground. This may change by late afternoon into tonight, as the low level jet increases slightly again. However, CAMs seem to be backing off on much of anything tonight, so confidence is pretty low overall.

How tonight unfolds will play into the severe weather potential for Saturday, as there could be lingering clouds or outflows associated with that. The northeast to southwest oriented surface boundary will likely still be laying somewhere across North Dakota, with plenty of moisture/humidity in place. Not seeing any consistent signals for where and when any convection will initiate again. CAMs are really not much help either, showing something possible across the eastern FA in the afternoon and another line of storms developing over western North Dakota in the late afternoon, moving into our western FA in the evening. So will have to see what later model runs have in store.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The ceiling near KBJI is finally scattering out and lifting. Around 22z storms start to develop with development ending around 06z.
Showers may linger until early morning. With a low level jet occurring overnight the storms may also sustain themselves longer than anticipated however the severity may also be uncertain past 06z.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016- 027>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007- 029.