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FXUS63 KFGF 020040 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 640 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 638 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Clouds continue to move into the area, which should keep us from divebombing in temperatures. No weather impacts are expected overnight tonight as lows fall into the low to mid 20s.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 217 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Key message: - Very quiet with above average temperatures through the weekend.

Upper troughing digging into the Rockies and Plains over the weekend will bring some high and mid clouds, but not much else to our area. Main embedded shortwaves will remain well to our south and precip probabilities for tomorrow look to be near zero.
Southerly winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph will bring good mixing and warm air advection for Saturday, although clouds will put a limit on how warm high temperatures get. That being said, the current temperatures today have been overperforming in comparison to the NBM. Thus, leaned a bit on the higher side of the ensemble spread and have mid 30s for highs across much of the ND side, and some upper 30s not out of the question. The winds and periodic cloud cover will also keep overnight lows warmer than climo, staying in the upper teens and low 20s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

-Monday clipper brings a quick dusting of snow

-Warm and dry midweek possibly turning more active towards next weekend

Upper level trough continues east through the day Sunday shifting the northern plains into NW flow as ridging builds out of the desert southwest and through the Rockies. A clipper will quickly advance south embedded within the NW flow moving into the forecast area Monday afternoon weak WAA and only poorly concentrated FGEN will coincide with a dry slot to limit QPF to only a few hundredths. NBM keeps < 10% chance for a an inch of snow with WPC favoring only a couple tenths keeping impacts minimal. Behind this system westerly winds bring a Chinook airmass through southern Canada into and the northern US, quickly sending sfc temps into the upper 30s Tuesday and 40s Wednesday and Thursday as the ridging begins to shift east in the later half of the week. EFI puts this in the 80th percentile as records highs are in the 50s and likely out of reach though well above average none the less. Cluster analysis begins to diverge later in the week heading into next weekend with some maintaining ridging and warm/dry weather while others depict a developing more active southwest flow pattern. Confidence would seem to favor the later with meteograms showing a general cooling trend which would align well with this more active pattern scenario.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Low aviation impacts are expected for the TAF period. Winds will remain southerly through 00z, with increasing winds in magnitude after 12z. Winds will diminish by sunset tomorrow. VFR conditions will also prevail.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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