DISCUSSION
Saturday and Sunday: A shortwave sliding down the leading edge of an upper level ridge in the Gulf of Alaska is bringing an increase in clouds to north-central Washington early this morning. These clouds will continue to spread to the southeast through the day. An increase in onshore flow with this wave will tighten the cross- Cascade pressure gradient and bring a stronger push of winds through the Cascade gaps and the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin late Saturday afternoon and evening. Models are showing the strongest winds to occur in the evening with a 40 to 70 percent chance for sustained winds above 20 mph in the NBM. Since the onset of the strongest winds look to occur after the peak heating of the day, widespread critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

The other concern for today is a 20 to 40 percent chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms across the North Cascades and a 15 to 20 percent chance across the Okanogan Highlands through far north Idaho this afternoon and evening. Weak instability and lift suggest the best potential to be over mountains with the best chance north of the border. Any lightning could pose a risk of new fire starts.

Elevated fire weather concerns will continue into Sunday as breezy winds are expected again on Sunday for central Washington and into eastern Washington. There is a 70 to 100 percent chance for sustained wind speeds over 15 mph from the lee of the Cascades to western Spokane County and down into the Palouse and the L-C Valley.
When increased to 20 mph, the Waterville Plateau and around Ephrata to Coulee City are showing an 80 to 100 percent chance and the L-C Valley is showing a 50 to 80 percent chance. On a positive note, Increasing moisture ahead of our next weather system will mitigate significant fire weather concerns as relative humidity values increase above critical values. This will be especially notable in the lee of the Cascades and across the Basin and into the Spokane area. Concerns will be most elevated in the lee of the Blues and the L-C Valley where conditions will remain very dry. /vmt

Monday and Tuesday: According to the long range ensembles, our best shot of precipitation in Washington and north Idaho within the next two weeks will occur on Monday and Tuesday. The precipitable water values with this front will be unusually high...at or above an inch. The National Blend of Models (NBM)
has consistently produced the most significant precipitation Monday and Monday night along the West Slopes of the Cascades from Stevens Pass to the Canadian border. East of the Cascades, the NBM generates much less rain. The plume of subtropical moisture will not only be diminished by its encounter with the Cascades, but the air mass east of the Cascades will be significantly warmer. Since, it takes a lot moisture to saturate a warm summer air mass, instability will be necessary to generate precipitation.
With lackluster instability, the NBM isn't producing impressive precipitation. There will undoubtedly be some convective elements capable of downpours in a high PWAT environment. The NBM 90th percentile shows the potential for localized quarter to half inch amounts Monday night into Tuesday over north Idaho and northeast Washington. So the potential for localized wetting rains is there, but the ensemble mean suggests amounts above a quarter inch will be the exception not the rule. The highest probability (50 to 70 percent) for a widespread tenth of an inch continues to be in the Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Metaline, and Northport areas.

Rain amounts Monday and Tuesday may be a disappointment for much of the Inland Northwest, but the cloud cover and elevated humidity will be a welcome change for fire fighting efforts. Weeks of above average temperatures, no rain, and low humidity has led to extreme fuel dryness east of the Cascades. At least a few days of dewpoints in the 50s will ease fuel dryness a bit.

Wednesday through next Weekend: There is very good ensemble agreement that a hot high pressure ridge will return to the Pacific Northwest late next week and well into August. Mostly sunny skies will return Wednesday and the warm up will begin in earnest Thursday and Friday. Spokane, Wenatchee, and Moses Lake have roughly a 50 percent probability of 100 degrees Friday and Saturday according to NBM output. Perhaps the percentages from the NBM are too high because the ensembles likely won't account for wildfire smoke. And there could be quite a bit of it across eastern Washington and north Idaho. As high pressure intensifies Friday into the weekend of August 3-4, mid-level southerly flow will likely draw smoke from Oregon into our region. With the likelihood of light winds at the surface, air quality may become problematic. /GKoch

AVIATION
06Z TAFS: Dry northwest flow aloft will keep conditions VFR through the period with light and diurnally/terrain driven winds.
Smoke from local and regional wildfires wildfires may result in intermittent visibility reductions to 6SM. The exception will be for KLWS where nearby fires (River and Gwen) to the east will result in reductions to 4SM or less, bouncing between MVFR and IFR conditions. Northwest winds in the afternoon may slightly improve conditions but confidence is low.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is low confidence on how smoke will impact visibility across the Inland Northwest.

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 87 56 85 58 84 60 / 0 0 10 0 10 40 Coeur d'Alene 84 54 84 56 81 59 / 0 10 10 0 10 50 Pullman 82 50 81 52 81 54 / 0 10 0 0 10 30 Lewiston 91 62 93 64 92 66 / 0 10 0 0 0 30 Colville 85 45 85 47 80 48 / 10 10 0 0 20 50 Sandpoint 81 50 83 52 78 56 / 0 0 10 0 10 60 Kellogg 80 57 80 58 79 61 / 0 10 10 0 10 40 Moses Lake 88 55 88 57 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 20 30 Wenatchee 88 62 88 63 82 64 / 10 0 0 0 30 20 Omak 91 58 92 61 84 60 / 10 10 0 0 30 30

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.