Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Eagle Lake, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 5:56PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 7:33 AM EDT (11:33 UTC) Moonrise 7:36PMMoonset 9:36AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eagle Lake, ME
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location: 47.13, -70.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 161110
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
710 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move east of the region Wednesday. Low
pressure will intensify off the mid-atlantic coast Wednesday
night and quickly track north into the gulf of maine Thursday
morning. The low will continue northeast across the maritimes
Friday. High pressure will return Saturday and Sunday.

Near term through tonight
7am update...

conditions largely on track with main forecast, ingested prev
obs. High clouds are currently moving across the crown of maine,
and will do so for good part of the day. Appears some valley fog
is just now forming to our south, but will be on downward trend
as Sun rises.

Prev discussion...

Wednesday will be dry, with increasing clouds
this afternoon and evening. A few patches of fog are possible
in cool river valleys this morning but coverage has been
minimal. Mostly sunny skies for the first half of the daytime
will let temperatures again go above normal in the upper 50s to
around 60 downeast. High clouds will increase during the
afternoon as low pressure tracks towards the region. Clouds will
thicken and lower into the evening and overnight.

Rain ahead of intensifying low pressure along the east coast
will advance into the region from the SW shortly after midnight
for locations like bar harbor and bangor... More details in the
short term below.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Upr lvl low, which is the next system to affect the area, is
dropping ovr lk michigan as of 07z. Sfc hipres wl hv built up into
the canadian maritimes as deep upr trof heads thru the great lks
late Wed night. Still some discrepancies amongst model guidance with
regard to transfer of energy to the coast. All guidance indicates a
secondary low wl dvlp off of the mid-atlantic coast by 00z Thu and
head northeast drg the overnight. However, 00z GFS and NAM indicate
a more compact sfc low wl develop off of the carolina coast Wed evng
and rotate around the main coastal low. NAM is much deeper with the
low forming off of the carolina coast as compared to the gfs. Latest
ec and cmc do not develop sfc low off of the carolina coast in
comparison. Hv disregarded the more intense nam. There may be some
semblance of truth to weaker GFS but wl tend to side more twd
majority rules. However, if more intense low can develop off of the
carolinas and rotate up into downeast maine wind forecast wl lkly be
significantly underdone.

As it stands now, max LLJ of 50-60kts wl impact mainly the coastal
downeast areas Thu morning. Hv issued high wind watch for coastal
hancock and washington counties fm 06z-15z Thu though main focus of
high winds look to center around 12z. With leaves still on the trees
along the coast wl lkly be looking at trees blown down along with
power outages.

All areas wl see rain on Thursday, locally heavy at times in the
morning as banding rotates through. Dryslot looks to work in fm the
south twd 15z and mv north thru the aftn. Due to this feature hv
lowered storm total QPF amnts by about 0.25-0.5 inches.

Wrap-around continues on Friday with gusty NW winds drg the aftn as
pressure gradient rmns tight. Temps wl rmn in the 40s acrs the north
but rise into the lwr 50s ovr downeast. Cldy skies wl continue thru
Friday night and with winds rmng mixed expect that lows wl drop into
the l m30s but shud rmn abv frzg in most areas.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
A nice weekend looks to be on tap with drying wx Sat and Sunday.

Temperatures will moderate into early next week. The next system wl
begin to slide into the region fm the west Mon night as 576 upr lvl
ridge begins to break down thanks to deep h5 trof pushing thru
canada. Significant rainfall cannot be ruled out with this system by
midweek.

Aviation 11z Wednesday through Sunday
Near term:VFR through midnight. CIGS will thicken and lower
during the afternoon, becoming MVFR to ifr at downeast terminals
overnight with rain, becoming heavy at times. S SE winds shift
easterly around 6z, becoming strong downeast towards the morning
hours.

Short term:
thu-thu night: ifr in rain, locally heavy at times Thu morning.

Llws expected Thu morning. Strong easterly winds in the morning
becoming northeast in the afternoon.

Fri: ifr becoming MVFR during the day, going toVFR in downeast
in the afternoon. Gusty NW winds.

Fri night:VFR downeast with MVFR going toVFR over northern
terminals. NW winds 5-10kts and gusty.

Sat-sun:VFR. NW winds becoming light Sat night.

Marine
Near term: below SCA through this evening ahead of large storm
set to impact gulf of maine and coastal waters late tonight.

Waves 2 to 3 feet increasing 4 to 6 feet around midnight. Winds
will also increase to 10-15 kts, gusting to 25kts. Late tonight
covered below.

Short term: winds rapidly increase late Wed night, approaching
storm force over all waters thur morning. Storm watch has been
issued for all waters through morning hours as low pressure
intensifies. Seas will range from 9-14 feet through Thursday
night southerly swell. Winds will drop below storm force early
afternoon but will remain above SCA levels through Fri night.

Winds diminish Sat morning through the weekend. Seas will drop
to below 4ft after Sat mrng.

Tides coastal flooding
Coastal wave heights will rapidly increase Wednesday night from
3 to 4 feet to 10 to 12 feet by Thursday morning, aided by winds
building to storm force. Rapidly intensifying low pressure,
with an expanding low level wind field, will track into the gulf
of maine Thursday afternoon with an increasing fetch to support
10 second period swell. Agreeable wave and wind direction
perpendicular to the downeast coast during the high tide cycle,
w sustained southerly winds 20-25 kts, will increase surge and chances
of minor overwash in prone areas along the downeast coast. A
coastal flood statement may be needed for 1pm high tide Thursday
around 11 feet.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... High wind watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon
for mez029-030.

Marine... Storm watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
anz050>052.

Near term... Cornwell
short term... Farrar
long term... Farrar
aviation... Cornwell farrar
marine... Cornwell farrar
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clayton Lake, ME57 mi2.3 hrsN 0 mi33°F33°F100%1018.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K40B

Wind History from 40B (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--346W7
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CalmCalmCalmCalm2Calm2CalmCalm----Calm--Calm
1 day agoCalm34
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333CalmCalm------------
2 days ago----Calm35
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44Calm4CalmCalmCalmCalm--------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.