Tuesday, February25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Eagle Lake, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 5:23PM Tuesday February 25, 2020 3:16 AM EST (08:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:45AMMoonset 8:22PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eagle Lake, ME
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location: 47.13, -70.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 250627 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 127 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will cross the area overnight. High pressure will build north of the region Tuesday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Tuesday night through Wednesday then cross the area on Thursday. Low pressure will continue northeast of the area Friday through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 125 AM Update: High clouds streaming northward per the latest satellite imagery. These clouds have been holding up temps tonight and hrly temps needed to be bumped up a few degree going into the next 3 hrs. Weak cold front will continue to make its trek toward the Downeast region overnight w/temps slowly dropping back. Decided to stay close the current forecast low temps. Kept the mention of fog for Bangor to the Downeast coast.

Previous discussion: A cold front will cross the region tonight and will usher in a slightly cooler air mass for Tuesday. We are not expecting another sharp inversion to generate another round of freezing fog tonight behind the cold front. However, there will be some colder pockets in the teens . or potentially even lower in northern zones as Canadian high pressure noses in later tonight. Nonetheless, there's not much cold air behind the cold front and above average high temperatures will continue Tuesday with a plethora of high clouds around and perhaps a few mid level clouds near the coast. Look for highs Tuesday to top out in the upper 30s in the Saint John Valley to the mid 40s in the Greater Bangor Region/interior Downeast. Temperatures will be a bit cooler along the immediate coast owing to the colder ocean waters.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Wednesday will be dry as high pressure moves over Hudson Bay. The cool and dry NE flow won’t be enough to keep another mild day at bay with high temps climbing into the mid- 30s. The dryness of the air will also impact eventual onset times for system Wednesday night and Thursday.

Overall guidance trend has been to delay start of precip across eastern Maine, and this was reflected in the forecast. GFS continues a later onset trend becoming closer in line with ECMWF and Canadian.

As main axis of precip moves over the forecast area Thurs morning, a fairly broad warm conveyor runs back to the initial overrunning low across eastern Ontario/western Quebec. This is observed well in 700mb pot temp contours and NAEFS mean integrated WV transport. Widespread lift is noted with Maine at the exit region of a 500mb jet. While the overall pace of the system is quick, these features will improve precip rates Thursday morning. Additionally, once the coastal low takes over as the primary with the overrunning warm conveyor lifting to the northeast over eastern Quebec and the Maritimes, a potential TROWAL can be seen aloft. GFS and Canadian have been consistent in holding on to wrap around snow across the north as this feature transits Maine. Therefore, light but increasing ratio snow may continue into Thursday night or early Friday morning across the north and eastern border.

Precip types and dry slot coverage continue to be other talking points. Overall the system appears cooler as flow remains mostly east out ahead and along the boundary lifting through. This translates to a further south rain/snow line (along/just north of the Bangor Region and Upper Penobscot Valley) as well as most of the precip potentially falling as snow before switching over to rain prior to a dry slot moving across Downeast. The dry slot would feature some rain showers across Downeast and the coast Thursday afternoon and evening.

The slowing onset trend means light to moderate snow will just be moving into western areas like the Bangor Region and MDI. The potential for increased precip rates could cause rapid accumulation. However, other than current snow cover, the ground may hold some warmth from the past week. Visibility will also be a factor if stronger rates do develop. Timing and locations of these increased snow rates will be improved upon in coming forecasts.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. The large low nearly stationary over Quebec will begin to track east Thursday night and Friday. The slow exit will keep some wrap around snow in the north continuing into the early morning hours Friday.

Active weather will be limited in the remainder of the long term forecast. The low’s large wind field will keep air aloft moving in from the NW through Sunday night, with cool surface temperatures during the day, and overnight lows in the single digits. A pattern change arrive by the middle of the week with some warmer temperatures returning.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. NEAR TERM: VFR at the Aroostook County terminals for the next 24 hours with a light wind regime. There is the chance of patchy fog after midnight at BGR and BHB with local MVFR vsby.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday: VFR with light NE winds.

Wed Night-Thurs: Conditions falling to IFR and LIFR in heavier precipitation across all TAF sites. Improvement to MVFR or IFR is possible later afternoon at Downeast sites. LLWS is expected on Thursday, with gusty E winds Downeast Thursday morning.

Thurs Night: Snow and IFR continues in the north, improving to MVFR by late Friday morning, with VFR expected at BGR and BHB.

Friday: VFR expected with W winds.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Below SCA criteria expected Wednesday. Winds could increase towards Gale overnight by Thursday morning through the afternoon. Waves will build to 8 to 12 ft in the outer waters.

Waves and winds will begin to subside Thursday night, but still above SCA criteria in the outer waters.

CLIMATE. The high Monday afternoon in Caribou was 47F, which was the mildest since a high of 48F on December 15, 2019. The high of 47F fell shy of the record of 50F, set in 2017. The high in Bangor of 48F was the mildest since a high of 55F on January 11, 2020. None of the long term climate sites in northern and eastern Maine set any daily temperature records today.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . None.



Near Term . Hewitt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clayton Lake, ME57 mi61 minN 0 mi25°F22°F89%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K40B

Wind History from 40B (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--CalmCalm23S11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.