Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Eagle Lake, ME

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 3:57PM Saturday December 14, 2019 10:11 AM EST (15:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:23PMMoonset 10:34AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eagle Lake, ME
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location: 47.13, -70.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 141506 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME 1006 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Intensifying low pressure will track northward across New England to northern Maine today through tonight. A cold front will cross the region Sunday. High pressure will cross the region Monday. Low pressure will cross the Gulf of Maine Tuesday and exit to the east by Tuesday night. The low will exit through the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 10am Update . Not much change expected to the current forecast package. Rain continues to fall across the entire forecast area this morning. The rain will be very heavy at times and will need to watch things closely for potential flood threats. Currently not expecting any issues with mainstem rivers, but some heavier bands have the potential to produce isolated issues. No significant updates expected.

6 am Update . Latest radar reflectivity imagery shows rain continuing to expand northward across the region. Temperatures at this hour have warmed above freezing across the region, with the exception of the St John Valley, where temperatures were still hovering in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Only minor changes to ingest latest observations, otherwise no other changes to going forecast.

previous discussion Low pressure from the mid atlantic states will continue to lift north toward the region today. This system will bring rain to the region today. Deep layered southerly flow will transport abundant moisture northward across the region resulting in the possibility of locally heavy rainfall. The heaviest rainfall is expected to be across Downeast areas, where rainfall amounts of 2 inches or greater are expected. Elsewhere, widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across the region.

The locally heavy rainfall will result in the possibility of localized ponding of water on area roadways, although not expecting any widespread flood issues. Winds may gust as high as 35 to 40 mph along the downeast coast later this morning and into this afternoon in response to a low level jet traversing the region.

Highs today will be well above normal for this time of year, with low to mid 40s across the north and upper 40s to lower 50s across downeast areas.

Rain will continue into this evening as low pressure lifts to the northwest of the state. The rain will taper to showers after midnight as it continues to track to the north of the region. Colder air will begin to filter into the area toward daybreak Sunday. This will result in any rain transitioning to snow showers across western areas but little in the way of accumulation is expected. Lows tonight are expected to range from the low to mid 30s across the north Maine Woods to the lower 40s across Downeast areas.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Strong winds expected Sunday into Sunday night.

Intensifying Low pres lifts up through Quebec w/cold air expected to pour into the region during the day. Temps will be the warmest in the morning w/early high temps in the 40s, and then temps will fall back by late morning. An upper trof will be moving through the region which will aid in some snow showers/flurries across the n and w. The pres gradient will tighten /strong wind potential hitting Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. SSW winds will veer to the W during the day. GFS and NAM soundings show inverted V in the llvls w/ dry air aloft. Momentum transfer from both of this set of guidance support wind gust potential of 40-50 mph. Some power outages are possible. Wind headlines may be needed for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Gusty W winds will continue through Sunday night w/gusts at time at least around 45 mph. Temps continue to plummet Sunday night w/temps hitting the single numbers across the far n and w, while central and downeast areas see mid/upper teens. Quite a change from 24 hrs ago.

Monday will continue to see gusty winds, but the pres gradient will be loosening during the day as the low continues it's track through Labrador. It will be a sunny day but cold w/daytime temps below normal.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pres will move across the state Monday night. Clear skies and light winds w/a cold airmass in place. The long range guidance including the ECMWF and GFS show some weak WAA aloft. This setup would be ideal for a llvl inversion to setup, keeping cold air trapped at the sfc. Decided to lean in this direction and go below the guidance for overnight low temps, especially across the nw and w where there is still a decent snow cover. Some sites such as Estcourt Station and Clayton Lake could see readings down around 0F by Tuesday morning.

Low pres tracking up from the TN Valley is forecast to move into the southern Gulf of Maine Tuesday into Tuesday night. The GFS and its Ensemble Mean support this track as does the ECMWF and a number of its ensemble members. This track brings the potential for some accumulating snow across the coastal region. Confidence is high enough to bring 60-70% chance for snow to this region and 40-50% chance for snow into the Bangor and Calais region. Further n, snow chances drop off w/the northern 1/2 of Aroostook County staying dry. Confidence is low attm on snowfall amounts as there is some discrepancy w/the long range guidance in this regard. The GFS is the most aggressive w/the amounts as the ECMWF and a good number of its ensembles show lesser amounts w/the best forcing off the coast. The Canadian Global is also lower w/the amounts. The low looks to be a fast mover and is shown to be east of the region by late Tuesday night w/skies clearing out. An upper low w/its sfc front is shown by the long range guidance to swing across the region Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The big factor is the very cold air behind this trof that is forecast to pour into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Enough forcing looks to be associated w/this feature to set off some snow showers into Thursday. Interestingly enough, the GFS shows a norlun type setup w/the upper low moving across southern Maine. This setup could favor a round of snow for portions of the Downeast. The ECWMF however has the upper low further n supporting snow showers. Confidence is low and decided on 20-30% chance of snow showers. Temps Wednesday and Thursday are expected to continue to run below normal. Winds look like they could crank up as the gradient tightens in the wake of the upper low for Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to persist today and tonight in rain. Low level wind shear will also be an issue into tonight at all the terminals.

SHORT TERM: Sunday: IFR To MVFR north. MVFR to VFR for BGR and BHB. Strong gusty SW to W winds with gust potential to 40+ kts Near Term. Short Term . Long Term . Aviation . / Marine . /

Sunday night: Possible MVFR across the northern terminals early, otherwise VFR. Strong gusty W winds continue.

Monday: VFR: Gusty west winds look like they will start to drop off by later in the afternoon.

Monday night: VFR, lowering to MVFR then IFR in snow Downeast. W winds becoming light then E late.

Tuesday: IFR in snow for KBGR and KBHB Tuesday and then becoming MVFR by Tuesday night. KHUL may see IFR/MVFR for a time later Tuesday into Tuesday evening. North of KHUL, VFR expected. NE winds becoming N then NW at 10 kts.

Wednesday . Possible MVFR and perhaps IFR in snow for KBGR and KBHB. Across the northern terminals, VFR w/periods of MVFR in some snow showers.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning has been issued beginning this morning and continuing through tonight. Visibility will be reduced to 1 NM or less at times in rain into this evening.

SHORT TERM: Gale Warning to continue right into early Monday. Expecting sustained winds of 25-35 kts w/gusts to 45 kts Sunday into Sunday night. Winds will be dropping off on Monday at 20-25 kt, but some gusts of 35 kt still possible through 12 PM. Seas of 14-15 kts Sunday will be subsiding to 6-7 ft by Monday afternoon.

Monday night into Wednesday . Winds drop off to 10 kts w/seas dropping below 4 ft by Tuesday morning. Low pres passing across the southern portion of the Gulf of Maine w/winds back to the NE 10-20 kts. Seas are expected to pick back up to around 6 ft by Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Winds will become NW w/this component helping to knock back the seas to below 6 ft by later in the day on Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.



Pohl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clayton Lake, ME57 mi2.9 hrsVar 5 mi36°F0°F%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K40B

Wind History from 40B (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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