Sunrise 5:05 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 11:58 AM   Moonset 2:13 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 151432 AAB AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Caribou ME Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME 1032 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front stalls over the region and weakens today into Friday. A series of upper level disturbances then cross the region through the weekend, with ridging at the surface.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1030 AM Update: Reduced near term PoPs given diurnal minimum in convective activity with no other significant changes to the forecast late this morning.

850 AM Update: Minor adjustments to PoP/Sky cover in line with morning trends in regional satellite/radar imagery as well as near term mesoscale guidance. This allows for a few more breaks in the clouds early with increasing shower coverage as the day progresses. No other changes to the forecast at this time.

6:13 AM Update...Added PoPs south of about Millinocket for the next couple of hours to account for showers passing through.
Shower chances decrease towards mid-morning before increasing again this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front is moving southeastward from Quebec into Maine early this morning. Ahead of this front, scattered showers have developed in parts of the area. These showers will decrease in coverage early this morning. Fog has thus far failed to develop, though some could still occur Downeast early this morning. Some breaks in the overcast are expected during the day today.

The front will stall around the Central Highlands today. With daytime heating, this front will be the focus of shower development by this afternoon. Soundings indicate enough instability for some isolated thunderstorms north of the Bangor region and south of the Crown of Maine. PWATS in this area are approaching the high-end of climatology for mid-May. Thus, any showers or thunderstorms could bring some briefly heavy rain.
However, not expecting any flash flooding due to storm movement and antecedent dry conditions. The thunderstorm threat will end with the loss of daytime heating. However, showers will still be around, mainly between Katahdin and the Saint John Valley.

Onshore flow will bring more stable air into the Bangor region and Downeast today and tonight. This will limit shower development there. Also a lesser chance of showers in the far northwest due to some drier air working in north of the front.

High temperatures will be in the lower 70s for most inland areas today, with mid 70s possible in the warmer spots. Cooler temperatures will prevail at the coast with onshore flow. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 50s, except upper 40s at the coast and near Estcourt Station.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A frontal boundary stalls across the region Thursday, then weakens Thursday night into Friday. Surface high pressure centered northeast of Maine ridges across the forecast area Thursday night through Friday night. Aloft, a disturbance approaches from the west later Friday then begins to cross the region Friday night. Expect a chance of showers along the stalling frontal boundary Thursday, most numerous across central and northern areas. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies Thursday. Expect decreasing shower chances Thursday night, with skies remaining mostly cloudy. The remnants of the stalled frontal boundary will help support a chance of showers across northern areas, slight chance Downeast, Friday. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies north with mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies Downeast Friday. Expect a slight chance/chance of showers across mostly northern and central areas Friday night.
Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies Friday night. Expect above normal level temperatures Thursday/Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A series of difficult to time upper level disturbances will cross the region through the weekend into early next week.
Surface ridging persists across Downeast areas through the weekend, then begins to move south early next week. Unsettled conditions, with a daily slight chance/chance of showers, will persist through the weekend into early next week with the disturbances crossing the region. Although the risk of daily showers will persist through the weekend into early next week, much of the time will remain dry. The better shower chances will generally occur across northern areas. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday. The coolest temperatures Saturday through Tuesday will likely occur along the Downeast coast, where winds will remain onshore much of the time.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: Southern Terminals: IFR early this morning at Coastal terminals with low clouds. Trending to MVFR after 12-13z and then to VFR this afternoon. Mainly VFR today at BGR with brief MVFR possible this morning. IFR or lower possible tonight with low clouds and fog. S winds 5-10 kts today, becoming light and variable tonight.

Northern Terminals: Mainly VFR today, except occasional MVFR at FVE. Brief MVFR/IFR in SHRA this afternoon. VCTS after 18-19z at HUL and possibly PQI. Aroostook terminals trend to MVFR or lower tonight with SHRA and BCFG. Light S winds this morning, becoming N-NE this afternoon and tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday...Occasional IFR/LIFR possible early with any fog.
Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR/LIFR late with any fog. Decreasing shower chances. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers north, slight chance Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast/south.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance to chance of showers north. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance to chance of showers north. A slight chance of showers Downeast.
South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria today and tonight. S-SW 5-15 kts with wave heights 1 to 3 feet through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in fog at times early this morning and again tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Thursday through Friday night. A chance of showers Thursday.
Patchy fog early Thursday, then again Thursday night into Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Bonsecours
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:54 AM EDT     1.75 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:46 AM EDT     4.24 meters High Tide
Wed -- 11:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:46 PM EDT     1.26 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bonsecours, Quebec, Tide feet

St-Jean-Port-Joli
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:46 AM EDT     1.76 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 05:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:01 AM EDT     4.50 meters High Tide
Wed -- 11:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:03 PM EDT     1.42 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St-Jean-Port-Joli, Quebec, Tide feet

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Caribou, ME,