Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Longbranch, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A little lull in the action early this morning but the inherited forecast is on track. Satellite imagery shows fast moving system offshore. Rain out ahead of the system starting to fill in over the area. Westerly flow aloft causing a rain shadow over the Central Puget Sound. Temperatures were in the upper 30s to mid 40s at 3 am/10z. A touch warmer than the last few mornings.

Everything still on track for some impactful weather across the area beginning this afternoon. Developing cold front offshore just east of 140W at 10z. The 160 knot jet accompanying the front will drive the system quickly across the eastern Pacific into Western Washington by late afternoon. Rain will continue to fill in over the area this morning with the rain shadow giving way by mid morning. Rain continuing through the afternoon hours.
Front reaching the coast mid afternoon moving inland quickly.
In addition to the rain winds picking up this afternoon especially along the coast. Have made a small change and moved the start time of the wind advisory along the coast up a couple of hours to 3 pm. By late afternoon westerly winds gusting 45-55 mph along the coast. Gusty southwesterly winds picking up over the interior as well with gusts near 40 to 45 mph by late afternoon. Snow levels below the passes initially will rising to 4000 to 4500 feet this afternoon. This rise in the snow levels will be brief with snow levels dropping again behind the front.
Highs near 50.

Front slamming into the Cascades early this evening with 925 mb and 850 mb winds in the 40-55 knot range. Strongest winds in the Central Cascades. Snow levels dropping quickly back down below the passes. Strong orographics will produce significant snow.
This combined with the winds will create blizzard conditions in the passes especially late tonight. The blizzard warning for tonight remains in effect until 5 am Thursday.

In the lowlands strong post frontal onshore flow. KOLM-KBLI gradient peaking near plus 6 mb just ahead and with the front.
Gradients in the Strait of Juan de Fuca will go from - 1 mb in the middle of the afternoon to plus 5 mb by 03z/8pm. Wind advisory remains in effect for all of the lowlands. Expect the strongest winds, gusts 50-55 mph along the coast and the north portion of Whidbey Island. The low level convergence will create an area of lighter winds probably near Everett. For the remainder of the area winds gusting 40-45 mph easing after midnight. Post frontal showers overnight. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm as well. Convergence zone will form over Snohomsih county but with the strong winds aloft the zone will get pushed into the Cascades quickly. This will enhance the new snow totals near Stevens Pass. Lows near 40.

Small break in the action Thursday morning as winds continue to ease and shower activity decreases. Jet aimed at Western Washington remaining healthy, 120 knots or so, will push a weak atmospheric river into Western Washington by the end of the afternoon. With the area slightly on the cool side of the jet, snow levels remaining below the passes. Highs back down into the mid 40s.

Weak atmospheric river, IVT values around 500 kg/m/s, remaining over Western Washington Thursday night and Friday. Rain in the lowlands and snow in the mountains. Snow levels remaining below the passes making for a tough go across the mountains. Have converted the Winter Storm Watch for early Thursday morning through early Saturday morning into a Winter Storm Warning. One to as much as three feet of new snow ( Paradise on Mt Rainier )
possible during the warning time frame. Temperatures remaining below normal, lows in the mid and upper 30s and highs in the mid 40s. Felton

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Extended models in good agreement with an upper level ridge beginning to build offshore pinching off the atmospheric river and pushing it south out of the area Friday night. Cool northwesterly flow aloft keeping some showers around Saturday with most of the activity in the Cascades. Models still showing uncertainty Sunday into the first part of next week. Upper level ridge remaining offshore with another atmospheric river trying to move over the top of the ridge into Western Washington. There is good agreement that the air mass will warm up with snow levels rising significantly, up to as high as 8000 feet. The question is will the ridge be able to push the river north into British Columbia. Ensembles are trending towards the ridge not being strong enough to deflect the river so for this package will have rain or rain likely wording for Sunday night through Tuesday. Highs will warm up with low 60s possible by Tuesday.
Felton

AVIATION
Widespread MVFR conditions early this morning, with a few locations of IFR, expected to continue today as a strong weather system pushes across the terminals this afternoon. Rain showers continue to move across the terminals early this morning and expecting rain to become steadier after 12z. IFR vis possible (10-20% chance) this afternoon as the heavier rain moves through the terminals between 14z-23z.
S/SW winds will increase this afternoon, peaking this evening into tonight with gusts 30-40 kt expected. Winds will ease slightly early Thursday morning but will still remain breezy.

KSEA.. MVFR cigs at the terminal expected to continue today, with stratiform rain reaching the terminal by 14z. There is a small chance(15-20%) of IFR vis between 14z-20z as the heavier rain pushes through. Gusty S/SW winds this afternoon through tonight. Winds will peak this evening with gusts 30-35 kt expected after 1z. Latest guidance suggests winds will begin to gradually ease after 7z, but still remaining breezy with gusts to 20-25 kt into Thursday morning.

29

MARINE
A strong weather system today will bring multiple marine hazards.
For the coastal waters and West Strait, hazards will include a combination of elevated waves and gale force winds. Early this morning seas are hovering around 8-10 ft and will build Wednesday afternoon to 14-19 ft. There is increasing confidence (greater than 80%) of seeing gale force winds over Puget Sound, Admiralty Inlet and the Northern Interior waters. Therefore, the Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings. Latest high-res guidance suggests there is a moderate-high chance (70-85%) for the coastal waters of briefly seeing Storm Force gusts Wednesday afternoon. There is also a moderate chance (50-70%) of Storm Force gusts for the Central and East Strait of Juan de Fuca Wednesday evening. Additional systems expected throughout the week. A weaker system will move over the waters on Thursday and Friday, with winds shifting to the north Friday morning. Another system will follow on Sunday.

Seas and winds will begin to ease Thursday morning, with seas decreasing below 10 ft Thursday night. Latest guidance suggests seas will remain below 10 ft through the weekend.

29

HYDROLOGY
The heavy mountain precipitation but with lower snow level scenario will continue to make river forecasting difficult into Sunday. QPF values a little lower on latest run which has dropped the hydrographs back down below flood stage for all of the rivers except the Skokomish. Even the Skokomish is running lower than the current forecast. Watch remaining in effect for Mason county because of the Skokomish with the river possibly getting to flood stage Thursday or Friday. Also a chance of the river getting to flood stage with the warm events next week.
While the remainder of the river forecasts to not show any flooding plenty of rivers from King county southward cresting in action stage the next few days. Will be keeping an eye on the scenario developing the first part of next week with the higher snow levels much more conducive to flooding possibilities for the rivers. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PDT Thursday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area- Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca- Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County- Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley- Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley- Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County- Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.

Blizzard Warning from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties- Olympics.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties- Olympics.

Flood Watch from this afternoon through Thursday afternoon for Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Thursday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Thursday for Admiralty Inlet-Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.