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FXUS63 KFGF 101543 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 943 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES

-Patchy Dense Fog will be possible in northeastern ND and far northwestern MN through late morning. Warmer temperatures, with recent snowfall has created the fog and is reducing visibilities down to a quarter of a mile at times.

-Potential (<20% chance) for Patchy Blowing/Drifting Snow during the afternoon hours on Monday and continuing through Tuesday morning. Visibilities may be restricted at times.
Slight chance (20%) for snow showers along the front as it passes through.

-Warm up as we approach the mid week, with quiet and dry conditions expected across the Northern Plains.

UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Patchy fog has spread a bit further eastward towards the northern RRV, although still hit and miss on web cams. Expanded SPS further east and continued it until noon. Should see some visibility improvement this afternoon. Revamped cloud cover as the NBM has been terrible and stratus has been sticking around across most of the CWA a lot more than forecast. At this point, will keep the high temps we have forecast, but may need to adjust down if we are socked in all day.

UPDATE
Issued at 703 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The low stratus in the Red River Valley and NW MN continues to linger this morning. Guidance has started to trend toward keeping the lower stratus throughout the daylight hours. This would hinder temperatures slightly today. Besides the lower stratus is the patchy dense fog that developed in the Devils Lake Basin this morning. Visibilities have dropped at times to a quarter of a mile. This trend will continue through the rest of the morning hours. Thus, a SPS was issued for the Devils Lake Basin through 17z.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Current satellite has a large area of low stratus across the Red River Valley and northwestern Minnesota. It has stalled out, but should start to slowly shift eastward as we progress through the morning. Patchy dense fog has also developed by the Turtle Mountains and has spread into the Devils Lake Basin. The warmer temperatures over the saturated ground levels (from the snowpack) has helped develop that fog further. Once sun rises the fog will start to diminish and visibilities should improve. Otherwise, areas that experience patchy fog may see visibilities drop to a quarter of a mile at times.

The rest of today, will be partly cloudy with temperatures getting into the 20s to lower 30s. Warmest temperatures will be in the southern Red River Valley. As we progress into Sunday night and Monday morning a shortwave moves across southern Canada bringing weak moisture and synoptic/frontogentic forcing to eastern ND and NW MN. The cold front associated with the system begins to track into the Devils Lake Basin and north central ND by Monday morning, with it spreading eastward by the afternoon and evening. Slight chances (20%) for snow showers across the region Monday afternoon and into Tuesday. Winds will be breezy out of the west as the front passes through the area. Strongest winds will be tied to the frontal passage, with up to 40kt gusts possible (30-40%) in eastern ND. The recent snowpack is not fully crusted over and some of it could be lofted into the air bringing patchy blowing/drifting snow to the region. Chances are on the lower end (<20%) since we don't have strong CAA coming behind the front and the temperatures are in the upper 20s to lower 30s for highs. In order to get areas of blowing snow we would need colder temperatures and a sharper gradient move through the area. However, any area that sees stronger winds with the isolated snow showers could see visibility reductions at times to a couple miles. We will continue to monitor the winds and the patchy blowing/drifting snow Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.

Post Tuesday morning, temperatures begin to rebound (especially where snowpack is limited. A ridge builds into the region ushering in drier and quiet conditions. Temperatures reach their peak on Thursday/Friday with highs in the lower 40s where snowpack is limited and the low to mid 30s where the higher snowpack is located (Devils Lake Basin and the northern Red River Valley. NW flow in central Canada by the end of the long term may introduce a shortwave or two to the northern plains next weekend. However, uncertainty arises with these chances as models are continuing to show the ridge dominating across the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 518 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Low Stratus continues across the Red River Valley points eastward affecting TVF, GFK, FAR, and BJI this morning. Guidance has it slowly diminishing as we head into the later morning hours. Underneath the stratus ceilings are IFR, with patchy LIFR at times. This trend continues through 18-20z. Ceilings will gradually improve to MVFR this afternoon around 18-22z and move into VFR around 00-03z. There is a chance (20%) for IFR conditions to continue into the mid afternoon hours for NW MN. Winds will remain light and variable throughout the day and gradually turn toward the south around 00-02z. DVL has patchy dense fog with visibilities down to a quarter of a mile on an isolated basis. This improves as we head into the later morning hours around 16-17z. Otherwise, DVL will reach VFR status this early afternoon.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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