Laporte, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laporte, MN

June 17, 2024 2:12 PM CDT (19:12 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:12 AM   Sunset 9:13 PM
Moonrise 4:06 PM   Moonset 1:27 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laporte, MN
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Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 171856 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 156 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

-Training showers and thunderstorms will bring the threat for flash flooding across the region through Monday and Tuesday.
The Flood Watch has been expanded to include the majority of eastern North Dakota and all of northwest Minnesota.

-Embedded severe thunderstorms are likely to arise through Tuesday with the threat for golf ball size hail and a lower risk for 60 mph winds.

UPDATE
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Not much change since previous update with shortwave ridging keeping skies mostly clear north of US Hwy 200, with higher clouds associated with convection in SD/MN south of US Hwy 200.

Overall, the forecast remains on track, including previous thoughts/messaging on this evening's and Tuesday's potentially hazardous weather.

UPDATE Issued at 1015 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Upper clouds associated with deeper convection in NE/SD/IA are showing signs of dissipation as well as moving into Minnesota.
Water vapor imagery reveals shortwave ridging impinging upon the Dakotas. This will allow partly clear skies into the afternoon under the influence of this ridging's subsidence.

Still holding high confidence in eventual increasing moisture for widespread thunderstorms this evening into Tuesday morning.
Will continue to hold on to Flood Watch.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Synopsis

00z upper air analysis indicates an 850mb warm front that has become the focus for strong isentropic ascent across South Dakota and southern Minnesota. This warm front will lift further north with its strong warm air advection through the day today.
At the surface, a very strong theta-e gradient will set up across the central plains and keep temperatures today very cool in the 50s. Efficient moisture transport associated with this warm front will create widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, lasting through a majority of the night into Tuesday morning.

Thunderstorms should exit the area by late Tuesday afternoon at the latest, with additional showers lingering overnight Tuesday.
There are signals for another stout wave to bring efficient rainfall to the area, although instability with this wave is much less so there is lower confidence in potential flooding.

FLASH FLOOD THREAT

There is a strong signal for widespread heavy rainfall beginning Monday afternoon and lasting through the overnight hours. The main question at this point is how much of the area sees flooding and where the strongest impacts will be felt.
Confidence has diminished in flooding potential across the southern zones due to the transient nature of the 850 warm front. Of greater concern for flooding based on CAMs is redevelopment west of the Red River Valley. For this reason, the Flood Watch has been expanded to encompass the majority of the area.

A very strong low level jet will generate continuous convection, feeding persistent instability and moisture into the zone of forcing. This is what we know 100% will occur overnight tonight. What we don't know is the evolution of surface features that will provide for more focused ascent and create a zone of potential flash flooding. CAMs have been really struggling to resolve certain things, but one of the most concerning is a few CAMs bringing a stationary front across eastern North Dakota.
This is a very low confidence scenario at this point, but one that may arise nonetheless. At this point in time there are two potential outcomes through Tuesday:

SCENARIO 1: The stationary front is fairly weak or nonexistent and there is no zone of focused ascent. This scenario would have limited flash flooding potential as the main forcing zone (the elevated warm front) will be fairly transient. Heavy rainfall is still likely to occur.

SCENARIO 2: The stationary front is strong enough to induce convection along a line. In this scenario, where convection fires WILL have flash flooding. The zone will be fairly tight thanks to strong instability. This is the higher impact scenario. Where this zone of ascent sets up though we do not know at this time. It could set up anywhere as far west as the Sheyenne River Valley and Devils Lake Basin to as far east as northwest Minnesota.

Given the convective nature of this and the multiple moving parts, it is very likely portions of the Flood Watch will need to be removed periodically throughout the day and overnight tonight, particularly as confidence increases in the greatest area of convection. This is a very low confidence scenario with the potential for higher impacts so take the entire situation and forecast as fluid at this point. Despite a downgrade from moderate to slight in the latest Excessive Rainfall Outlook, it is important to note that this is due to uncertainty. The potential severity of flash flooding has not changed. Prepare for at least heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

Through the day today, strong differential diabatic heating will likely strengthen a surface theta-e warm front across southern South Dakota and southern Minnesota. This will keep the bulk of surface instability away from our area, meaning the bulk of convection that fires this afternoon will be elevated. Strong southwesterly flow within the 850mb layer will advect a persistent elevated mixed layer to our area, giving strong sustained convection with strong instability. This means the primary threat will be hail. The main uncertainty at this point in time is how large potential hail will be and will depend on anything becoming a supercell. Despite strong bulk shear from the surface up, it is more likely that thunderstorms will only see shear from 850 and up, which is substantially less.
Effective-layer bulk shear north of the warm front is on the order of 20-30 knots, so there is a greater probability for multi-cellular clusters. If parcels can tap into a bit more shear closer to the surface, the potential for elevated supercells is there. Without supercells, the greatest hail size we will most likely see is 1.25, but with supercells it would be possible to push past 1.5.

As the surface warm front pushes into our area after midnight, convection in the vicinity of this warm front may pose the risk for severe wind gusts to 60 mph, although confidence is low due to timing with a potential diurnal inversion near the surface.
Redevelopment is likely Tuesday afternoon. Flow parallel to the initiating boundary will create more linear structures, creating a primarily damaging wind driven impact. Severe convection should only last about 1-3 hours before exiting into northeast Minnesota.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are favored through 03Z. Between 03Z-09Z, MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast to develop over much of the region, lasting through 15Z Tuesday morning. There is a medium chance these lowered CIGs last beyond 15Z as well.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the region starting between 03Z-06Z. Some of these thunderstorms may be strong to severe holding hail and gusty winds over 40kt, in addition to lightning.

Low level shear will also envelope portions of southeast North Dakota into Minnesota between 03Z-12Z, starting around 2kft with winds to 50kt. Winds at around 5kft also could reach as high as 60-70 kt out of the south.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NDZ007-008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MNZ001>009-013>017- 022>024-027>032-040.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBJI BEMIDJI RGNL,MN 18 sm17 minESE 0310 smClear72°F48°F43%29.84
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