Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakeland North, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A peek out the window and a glance at satellite shows clouds breaking up over portions of W WA this afternoon...far more successfully in the western half of the CWA, but there are patches of blue sky here in the eastern half too.
Not everything is all clear though as the radar still showing some weak echoes...mainly a band of light showers/sprinkles moving southwestward from King county into Pierce. As mentioned in the morning discussion, these bits of precip emerging from passing shortwaves along the leading edge of a building trough still over the Pacific waters. Temps still a little on the cool side, at least in the interior, with most obs reporting lower 40s. There are some exceptions though. And then there's UIL reporting 50 degrees along the coast.

As ridging intensifies over the region throughout the start of this week, the pattern will remain generally dry with a persistent risk for widespread overnight and early morning patchy fog or, at the very least, some low stratus. With Monday being the first day fully under the ridge, cannot help but wonder if lingering low level moisture will make it difficult to break out in the late morning or early afternoon. Model guidance seems to be leaning this way too, so have opted to go a little pessimistic with fog hanging on into the afternoon and even once it lifts, may have some difficulty shaking the low clouds. This would leave Monday living up to its reputation of being stereotypically gloomy. Fog will likely return overnight Monday and early Tuesday morning...but with the ridge in place and moisture gradually diminishing, the likelihood of development late Tuesday into Wednesday similarly falls.

A slight warming trend expected through mid-week, but certainly not anything one would mistake as significant. Highs Monday will range in the lower to mid 40s and highs Tuesday fall within the same range with most spots only seeing a degree or two of difference. Highs Wednesday will get a little closer to seasonal normals, ranging from the mid 40s to around 50. Overnight lows will be quite brisk, ranging in the lower to mid 30s, with some spots dipping below freezing.

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LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Increasing clouds overnight Wednesday into Thursday will likely be the only impact from an upper level low passing through British Columbia and flattening the ridge over the Western US. Deterministic models remain consistent only in their waffling...the GFS now showing better moisture and PoPs dipping down into the area while the ECMWF has any precip fizzling out as it plunges southward...these current solutions being practically the opposite of what they were 24 hours ago. Thankfully, ensembles remain right on track and thoroughly unimpressed by this feature, maxing any possible PoPs at 17 pct with a mean significantly below that at less than 5 pct. It appears that the NBM is allowing itself to be colored by the deterministic outliers with 20-40 pct PoPs for the lowlands and up to 70 pct in the Cascades.
This seems a touch excessive, but this still remains a ways out yet, so grab the syrup as there are likely many more waffles to come.
Friday sees the ridge rebuild, allowing for dry, calm conditions to return for the upcoming weekend.

Highs will see a minor cooling trend, starting off ranging in the mid to upper 40s Thursday before finding themselves in the upper 30s to lower 40s for the weekend. Overnight lows will similarly fall, starting off in the lower to mid 30s Thursday night before bottoming out in the mid to upper 20s for the weekend.

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AVIATION
An upper ridge will remain over Western Washington through Monday for continued northerly flow aloft. Generally MVFR/VFR cigs this afternoon with low to mid clouds. MVFR/VFR will continue into this evening with some clearing in spots to FEW/SCT.
Cigs will lower tonight between 07-10z towards LIFR/IFR across Puget Sound. In addition, fog development is expected due to abundant moisture at the surface and light flow at the surface. LIFR cigs/vsbys will then continue through Monday morning for the majority of the interior sites. Some improvement is expected to vsbys Monday afternoon, however, LIFR/IFR cigs may continue for some areas of central and southern Puget Sound through the afternoon.
Lighter N/NE winds will continue through this evening becoming light and variable tonight into Monday.

KSEA.. MVFR cigs continue this afternoon. Brief improvements to VFR are possible this evening, mainly between 02-06z as clouds scatter further. LIFR/IFR cigs will then develop tonight between 07-10z.
Vsbys reduction are also expected Monday morning due to fog development. LIFR cigs/vsbys are forecast to continue through midday Monday. Some improvements in cigs and vsbys are possible Monday afternoon, however, confidence remains low in clearing or VFR cigs Monday PM due to light flow at the surface. North winds of 4 to 7 kts will continue into this evening, with a brief period of sustained winds near 10 kts possible between 00z and 03z. Otherwise, light, variable winds Monday morning. JD

MARINE
High pressure will build over the waters into Monday and remain over the waters for the majority of the week. A weak front will move through the area Thursday into Friday for increasing northerly winds. Small Craft Advisory north winds will need to be monitored during this period for the Coastal Waters. NE winds will then develop next weekend.

Seas will range 8 to 12 feet over the Coastal Waters tonight into Monday morning. Seas will then briefly subside below 10 feet Monday afternoon into Monday night before building again on Tuesday to near 10 feet for the Outer Coastal Waters. Seas will subside below 10 feet later Wednesday before building to 10 to 12 feet Thursday. JD

HYDROLOGY
River flooding is not expected through the next seven days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.