Sunday, February23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Allyn, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 5:47PM Sunday February 23, 2020 5:07 AM PST (13:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:35AMMoonset 5:55PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 245 Am Pst Sun Feb 23 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am pst this morning through late tonight...
Today..SW wind 15 to 25 kt rising to 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 5 ft. Rain in the morning then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming nw to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..SE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..Light wind becoming S to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming sw to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW wind to 10 kt becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
PZZ100 245 Am Pst Sun Feb 23 2020
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A strong frontal system will move through the waters this morning and will produce strong onshore flow behind the front this afternoon. Onshore flow will ease Monday and Tuesday with high pressure over the waters. A weak front will dissipate over the area Tuesday night or Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Allyn, WA
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location: 47.39, -122.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 231219 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 419 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. A robust frontal system will bring widespread lowland rain and heavy mountain snow to the area today, with the chance for a few thunderstorms. Dry conditions will return briefly Monday evening into early Tuesday before a weak front brings few showers to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Another frontal system may bring rain to the area late in the week or early next weekend.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The larger scale pattern this morning can be characterized by strong cyclonic flow extending from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest, with several potent shortwave troughs embedded within. A split-flow pattern was noted downstream of this cyclonic flow, with the northern stream representing a shortwave across the far upper Midwest, and the southern stream representing a positively titled closed low near the 4 corners with broad, weakly amplified ridge downstream across the South. At the sfc, an organized frontal system was seen approaching the Pacific Northwest, with expansive area of high pressure dominating most of the rest of the US.

Focusing more on the Pacific Northwest, water vapor imagery denotes a picturesque area of closed low pressure just offshore the northern Vancouver Is Coast and near Haida Gwaii, which is the primary shortwave embedded in the aforementioned cyclonic flow. This shortwave is beginning to take on a negative tilt, which is evidence of strong dynamics. An organized frontal system also accompanies this shortwave in the lower levels, with MRMS radar imagery suggesting widespread, convective-like precip along and just ahead of the cold front. In fact, already seeing a few lightning strikes detected offshore embedded within a narrow, linear rainband. The current environment is already characterized by steep mid level lapse rates, strong deep layer shear (0-6km), and strong helicity in both the 0-1km and 0-3km layer. A few embedded areas of thunderstorms may be strong this morning.

For today, the frontal system will continue to push east, bringing widespread rainfall (and perhaps a few thunderstorms) with it through the morning hours as the parent system begins to pivot into western BC. The passage of the frontal system should be rather quick across the area this morning, with the environment in its wake becoming noticeably more unstable. Widespread morning rain will give way to convective showers this afternoon. During the 18z-03z time window this afternoon, mid level temps will drop to below -30C with the left exit region of a 300mb jet streak nosing into the area. This is suggestive of steep mid level lapse rates amidst strong forcing aloft. This will likely be sufficient to support lightning development in some of the convective showers, along with small hail. Therefore, the chance for thunderstorms will continue, and is likely to have a better chance of occuring in this post-frontal environment compared to this morning's environment. Cannot rule out a few strong areas of convection. Focusing more on the higher terrain, accumulating morning snowfall is likely as the front passes through, with the heavier snowfall expected in the post-frontal convective environment where snowfall rates may be enhanced given stronger updrafts, along with the flow becoming more orthogonal to mountains. Snow levels will generally remain in the 2000-3000 ft range through much of today and into this evening. The Winter Storm Warning will continue for the Cascades from 4am this morning thru 4am Monday morning, with a Winter Weather Advisory for the Olympics from 4am this morning through 10pm tonight. Expect travel impacts across the Passes today through tomorrow morning. In addition, dangerous avalanche conditions are expected per the Northwest Avalanche Center.

Later this evening and into the overnight, the parent shortwave will begin to dampen across BC and an upper level ridge will begin to build into the region, characterized by strong height rises. Shower coverage is expected to continue, but should begin to gradually decrease overnight. The Cascades will likely still see accumulating snowfall into the Monday morning commute as snow levels drop below 1000 ft. By Monday morning, most of the remaining moisture and shower activity should largely be confined the the Cascades and adjacent foothills. Model guidance suggest snow levels below 500ft for most of the area and if any showers linger across the lowlands, some snow may mix across the higher hilltops. Hi-res guidance has not really picked up on PSCZ potential yet, but could be something to watch. Conditions will gradually dry out through the day Monday, bringing a return to benign conditions by the afternoon.

The upper level ridge appears to be pretty progressive into Tuesday, with a mid level moisture associated with a sfc frontal system following closely on its backside as it passes east and dampens through the day. Light shower chances will increase through the day Tuesday and continue into the overnight hours.

Kovacik

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A weakening frontal system will be crossing the local area at the start of the long term period. A few light showers may hang around in its vicinity, but should gradually wane through the afternoon hours. The upper level ridge will attempt to recover and deflect the storm track to the north on Thursday, though a few showers may still sneak into northern sections of the area. Even if the ridge is successful in deflecting moisture northward, its presence will be short-lived, as it appears troughing offshore will deepen late in the week and early next weekend. This will likely bring a frontal system our way.

Kovacik

AVIATION. A strong frontal system will move through the region this morning, followed by an upper level trough moving through the area by 00Z. West southwesterly flow aloft will become more northwesterly during midday today.

Current radar indicates showers moving in along the coast this morning, with a few thunderstorms over the offshore waters. Current conditions across the terminals remain mostly VFR at this hour, with conditions MVFR near the coast and southwest interior as rain moves inland. Terminals along the Sound will remain mostly VFR before dropping to MVFR closer to frontal passage around 15-16Z. Conditions could become IFR in areas of locally heavier rainfall. Cigs will improve behind the front except near King/Snohomish county where a convergence zone could develop. Winds will start to become gusty across the region this morning as the front approaches and will persist through the evening hours.

KSEA . Current conditions remain VFR, but will lower to MVFR as the frontal system approaches this morning near 15-16Z. Light southeasterly winds will pick up late this morning, increasing to 12 to 18 knots with gusts 25-30 knots by 15Z Sunday. 14

MARINE. A strong frontal system will move through the area waters this morning. Current observations have indicated that this system has already started to bring gale force southerly winds to portions of the Coastal Waters. Expect southerly winds to pick up along the inland waters up ahead of the front this morning as well. Thus, small craft advisories are in effect for Puget Sound, Admiralty Inlet, and the Northern Inland Waters through this afternoon. A strong westerly push is then likely along the Strait of Juan de Fuca in the wake of the frontal system. Gale- force winds could also bleed into the adjacent waters of Admiralty Inlet and the southern portion of the Northern Inland Waters this evening. Strong post frontal onshore flow will continue tonight and gradually ease on Monday. Surface high pressure will then rebuild over the area Monday, before a weak front move over the area waters Tuesday into Wednesday and dissipates across the region. Conditions are expected to remain benign.

Seas over the Coastal Waters will briefly build to 20-24 feet this afternoon and evening before subsiding again by early Monday morning. A high surf advisory remains in effect. 14

HYDROLOGY. No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days. The most significant chance for widespread and locally heavy precip will be today and tonight. However, no river flooding is expected as snow levels are expected to drop quickly and significantly over the course of the event, making this largely a snow event for the higher terrain. Aside from today's system, a weak weak systems will bring some light showers to the area next week, but should not cause any river impacts.

Kovacik

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.

High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Monday for Central Coast-North Coast.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Olympics.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM PST Monday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM PST Monday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 27 mi50 min SE 4.1 G 5.1
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 28 mi56 min 42°F 48°F1012.9 hPa
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 31 mi68 min SSE 11 G 13 43°F 1012.6 hPa (-4.3)41°F

Wind History for Tacoma MET, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bremerton, Bremerton National Airport, WA10 mi72 minSSW 55.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F39°F97%1013.1 hPa
Shelton, Shelton Sanderson Field, WA17 mi75 minN 03.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F39°F97%1012.2 hPa
Tacoma, Tacoma Narrows Airport, WA19 mi75 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast41°F37°F89%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWT

Wind History from PWT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S11S9SW6NE3CalmCalmNE6NE8N5E5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NE5CalmCalmCalmS5SW5S4
1 day agoSE3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW6S7S8S6S6S6SW10SW7SW8SW6SW6SW5S4S4S4S5S5S11SW11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN3E3E4CalmN3W3SE3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for Lynch Cove Dock, Washington
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Lynch Cove Dock
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:45 AM PST     12.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:33 AM PST     New Moon
Sun -- 07:34 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:24 AM PST     6.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:24 PM PST     10.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:47 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:55 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:11 PM PST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.93.268.911.112.512.81210.58.676.26.37.18.59.810.610.59.67.85.5310.1

Tide / Current Tables for Colville Island, 1 miles SSE of, Washington Current
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Colville Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:24 AM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:35 AM PST     1.87 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:30 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:33 AM PST     New Moon
Sun -- 07:33 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:48 AM PST     -2.02 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:17 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:53 PM PST     0.53 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:19 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:46 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:54 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:17 PM PST     -3.02 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.60.71.51.81.91.61.10.4-0.6-1.7-2-1.8-1.2-0.30.40.50.40.1-0.5-1.5-2.4-3-2.9-2.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.