Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vashon, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Satellite imagery shows weak shortwave over the central portion of Western Washington moving south. Cloudy skies over most of the area with some clearing already over Whatcom county. Doppler radar has shower activity over the Central Puget Sound dissipating at 2 am/10z. With the cloud cover temperatures much warmer than previous mornings with mid 30s to lower 40s. The exception to this is Whatcom county where the clearing skies have allowed temperatures to drop once again into the 20s.

Shortwave moving south of the area this morning. Dry northeasterly flow aloft developing with an upper level ridge building offshore. Skies clearing from the north this morning with mostly clear skies by mid afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 40s.

Upper level ridge offshore nosing into British Columbia over the weekend with dry northeasterly flow aloft. In the lower levels light offshore flow developing tonight and continuing through the weekend. Patchy freezing fog in the usual places like the Southwest Interior in the early morning hours both Saturday and Sunday. Fog that does form will be shallow and dissipate by mid morning. Otherwise more of the same with sunny days and clear nights. Highs in the mid 40s. Lows tonight into the 20s and lower 30s. Lows Saturday night a couple of degrees cooler. Could need a cold weather advisory for some locations for Saturday night/early Sunday morning in future forecast packages.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Extended models in good agreement again this morning. Upper level ridge moving directly over Western Washington Monday with the ridge remaining in place Tuesday. Two more days of what we have seen the most of the second half of January, patchy morning freezing fog otherwise sunny days and clear nights. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Lows in the 20s and lower 30s.

Changes in the pattern beginning Wednesday with the upper level ridge moving off to the east. One more sunny day with patchy morning freezing fog. Highs in the lower to mid 40s and lows in the 20s to lower 30s.

Organized front approaching Wednesday night with the front moving through the area Thursday. Good chance this feature gives Western Washington the most rain we have seen since January 4th. Snow levels 2500 to 3000 feet with the mountains getting a few inches of new snow. Felton

AVIATION
Northwest flow aloft will switch to northeast today as a shortwave trough sinks to the south and a ridge builds back in to the north. MVFR cigs prevail across most of western Washington following a frontal passage late last night. Some light scattered showers are evident on radar early this morning but overall little to no impact is expected as temperatures remain above freezing. This added low-level moisture will help keep ceilings MVFR this morning, with some locations experiencing isolated visibility restrictions in mist/fog. Light north to northeast winds will pick up a bit to around 8 to 12 kt this afternoon.

Gradual improvement is expected through around 15-18Z as ceilings begin to lift to VFR and scatter out. Clear skies are expected by late this afternoon and continue tonight.

KSEA.. MVFR cigs remain behind a frontal passage early this morning.
A few light showers in the vicinity but temperatures remain above freezing and little to no impacts are expected. Gradual lifting of the ceiling is expected this morning to low-end VFR before clouds dissipate late this morning into this afternoon. Clear skies prevail into tonight. Winds north to northeast will increase this afternoon to around 10 to 15 kt before easing up tonight.

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MARINE
A weak frontal system pushed south of area this morning, with breezy northerly winds persisting throughout the day today.
The strongest winds remain across the outer coastal waters, where a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon. Winds will pick up a bit through the interior waters through the East Strait of Juan de Fuca and Puget Sound later this morning and into this afternoon, but remain well below criteria. High pressure re- develops over interior British Columbia and over the offshore Pacific, with a surface trough along the coastline. This setup will allow for light northeasterly winds to continue through this weekend and into the beginning of next week. High pressure will begin to weaken and broaden out mid-week as the next frontal system approaches the area. This system may arrive as early as Wednesday night, but will more likely arrive sometime Thursday.

Seas will peak early this morning around 7 to 11 ft, with the highest waves over the outermost coastal waters, and will ease today. Seas will subside to around 4 to 6 ft this weekend and through next week, until the next system arrives late week.

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HYDROLOGY
No river flooding the next 7 days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.