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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 248 Am Pst Wed Dec 6 2023
Today..Light wind becoming N to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain in the morning then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..N wind to 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the evening then showers after midnight.
Thu..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Thu night..SW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..SW wind to 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S wind to 10 kt becoming se 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..SW wind to 10 kt becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.

PZZ100 248 Am Pst Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters.. Seas remain elevated and winds remain calm today. A weak system looks to move over the area waters Thursday before high pressure builds over the area Friday. A stronger frontal system moves is expected for the weekend.

FXUS66 KSEW 061104 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 304 AM PST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
Rain will decrease across Western Washington on Wednesday as an atmospheric river shifts south of the area, but some river flooding will persist into Thursday. A shift toward more showery precipitation, cooler temperatures, and lowering snow levels will take place on Thursday followed by a brief break on Friday. Active weather looks to return over the weekend with more rain, mountain snow and breezy to windy conditions for some areas.
Drier conditions return early next week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Precipitation continues to ease across Western Washington early this morning as the intensity of the atmospheric river eases and a stalled frontal boundary slicing through Puget Sound gradually gets nudged eastward. The air mass continues to cool in the wake of the front with snow levels from 5000 to 7000 feet across the CWA early this morning.
These will continue to edge downward over the next 24 hours along with precipitation turning more showery in nature. An upper trough axis will shift onshore on Thursday morning. This will lead to an increase in shower activity, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area. However, overall QPF will be rather light in comparison to recent rains. Snow levels will be down to the Cascades passes by early Thursday where they'll likely pick up some nominal snowfall amounts. Weak upper ridging will nose into the region on Friday for a short-lived drying trend extending into the early hours of Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Models remain on track with a progressive frontal system sweeping onshore on Saturday.
This will bring another round of lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to locally windy conditions. Snowfall at most of the Cascade passes could reach winter storm criteria (12+ inches) and this will need to be watched. The front shifts east of the region on Sunday. Ensembles continue to show broad support for upper ridging building into the region for the first half of next week.
Current forecasts based on the NBM contain low end PoPs during the period, but ensemble height anomalies suggest that Monday and Tuesday will be generally dry across Western Washington. 27

AVIATION
Southwesterly flow aloft today with deep troughing over the northeast Pacific. A stalled frontal boundary will slowly continue to shift eastward into eastern Washington and Oregon, gradually pulling a majority of the stratiform rain with it, leaving only widely scattered showers over the terminals through the rest of the day. The next system brings light rain back into Western Washington by 12-15Z Thursday as a shortwave trough ejects towards the region from the northeast Pacific.

A mixed bag of MVFR and lower conditions both with CIGs and VSBYs. A gradual improvement to mostly MVFR and VFR is expected into the afternoon, especially after 23Z. Additional low and mid-level clouds look to move back into the region after 04Z this evening ahead of the next weak system. Potential fog tonight with light winds and abundant low-level moisture, especially at KBFI, KOLM, and KHQM.
Light and variable winds through the early morning, eventually settling more to the southwest then transitioning to the northwest after 21Z this afternoon.

KSEA...Southwesterly flow aloft with troughing over the Pacific. A stalled frontal boundary will gradually shift eastward through the day, taking most of the stratiform rain with it into the afternoon.
Scattered showers will form this afternoon from weak convergence bands. Fog, mist, and stratus early this morning with abundant low- level moisture in the area. Conditions should gradually improve to mostly MVFR levels by around 22Z, where they should remain through the rest of the day into tonight. Light and variable winds will shift to the southwest through the morning, then shift to the northwest after 20Z as the convergence band showers shift southward towards the terminal. The next system brings more widespread light rain from the south by around 12-15Z Thursday morning with persistent MVFR conditions.

Davis

MARINE
A stationary front is situated just onshore from the Western Washington waters, leaving light to calm winds in its wake.
Winds may be breezy at times in the Strait of Georgia this afternoon with gusts approaching 20 kt. A low pressure system looks to move just south of the area waters Thursday before a more powerful system moves into the area for the weekend. Gale force winds are possible for the coastal waters, with additional headlines possible for the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Strait of Georgia. High pressure will keep winds at ease into the beginning of next week.

Seas 16 to 18 ft at around 15 s will gradually decrease to 8 to 10 ft by Thursday night. Seas will rise to around 12 to 15 ft during the weekend before dropping to 4 to 7 ft by the beginning of next week.

LH

HYDROLOGY
Atmospheric river event has come to an end over the area. Rainfall totals for the event, 3 to 7 inches in the Olympics and the Cascades with a localized maximum of 8 to 10 inches between Darrington and Gold Bar. For the coast and the interior lowlands amounts ranged from 2.5 to 5.5 inches with lesser amounts near the Olympic rain shadow.

The upper reaches of the rivers crested Tuesday evening or are in the process of cresting early this morning. Major flooding was observed along the Stillaguamish ( see above rainfall maximum )
with a preliminary record level at the Stillaguamish at Arlington.
The Skokomish and upper reaches of the Skagit also reached major flood stage.

Forecast crests for the rivers that have not yet crested have come down a bit overnight with the forecast crest for the Skagit near Mount Vernon and the Snoqualmie near Carnation now in the moderate flooding category instead of major.

Flood crests will continue to make their way downstream today with the lower reaches of the rivers cresting today. The exception to this is the Chehalis River with the river from Porter to Grays Harbor cresting Thursday into early Friday.

Many of the locations in the upper reaches of the rivers like the Snoqualmie at the Falls will be back below flood stage by later today. The remainder of the rivers will drop below flood stage Thursday with the exception of the Skokomish which is forecast to remain above flood stage into the weekend and the aforementioned Chehalis River near Grays Harbor. Felton

CLIMATE
The 2.39 inches recorded at Seattle-Tacoma airport was the 20th wettest day since records started in 1945. It was the 3rd wettest December day surpassed only by 3.77 inches on December 3rd, 2007 and 3.25 inches on December 20, 2019. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Admiralty Inlet Area- Bellevue and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-Central Coast- East Puget Sound Lowlands-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca- Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-San Juan County-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes South Central Cascades and Passes- Western Skagit County-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca- Western Whatcom County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

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Harper
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:44 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:53 AM PST     3.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:55 AM PST     11.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:23 PM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:19 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:01 PM PST     3.81 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Harper, Yukon Harbor, Washington, Tide feet

Skagit Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:44 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:26 AM PST     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:56 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:57 AM PST     0.55 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:51 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:23 PM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:19 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:42 PM PST     -0.98 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:25 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:18 PM PST     0.24 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Skagit Bay, 1 mile N of Rocky Point, Washington Current, knots

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