Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 5:13 AM   Moonset 10:17 PM

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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 205 Am Pdt Thu May 9 2024
Today - N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Tonight - N wind 10 to 20 kt easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight. Fri - N wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Fri night - N wind 5 to 15 kt easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Sat - N wind to 10 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Sun - S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming w. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mon - S wind to 10 kt becoming nw. Wind waves 1 ft or less.

PZZ100 205 Am Pdt Thu May 9 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - High pressure will continue to build off the coast today through the end of the week. Thermally induced low pressure moving up the coast Thursday will shift over the inland waters Friday and east of the cascades Saturday.

FXUS66 KSEW 091057 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 357 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

SYNOPSIS
Upper level ridge centered offshore nosing into Southern British Columbia today. The ridge will remain in place Friday then begin to weaken Saturday. Low level flow turning offshore today. Offshore flow continuing into Friday with the flow turning onshore Saturday. Weak upper level trough moving through later Sunday. A weaker ridge will temporarily rebuild Monday. Another trough will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Satellite imagery shows clear skies over Western Washington with the exception of a small area of stratus along the north coast. Temperatures at 3 am/10z were in the 40s and lower 50s.

The process leading to the warmest days of the year for Western Washington is already underway this morning. Upper level ridge offshore building into Southern British Columbia. Cross cascade gradients down to plus 2 mb and will go negative later today.
Surface gradient has already turned negative in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. In addition to the lower level flow turning offshore winds at 850 mb and 700 mb are also turning easterly this morning.
With the ridge building temperatures aloft warming. 850 mb temperatures near plus 8C this morning warming to plus 12 or 13C by late this afternoon. All of this adds up to significant warming today across the area with inland temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday and temperatures along the coast 15 degrees or so warmer versus yesterday. Highs in the 70s with the warmer locations getting into the lower 80s.

Little change in the pattern overnight into Friday. Temperatures aloft continue to warm with 850 mb temperatures in the plus 13 to plus 15C range by late Friday afternoon. Lows tonight in the upper 40s to mid 50s, close to record high minimum temperatures in some locations. Highs Friday a little warmer with 70s to mid 80s. While not expecting record highs Friday, temperatures this warm are unusual for the first half of May. Seattle has only had 3 days in the 80s on May 10th in 79 years of records.

Even with the surface temperatures warming quickly waters around Western Washington are still very cool. Water temperatures this morning, Lake Washington 54 degrees, Lake Sammamish 56 degrees and Puget Sound in the lower 50s. The rivers are even colder with the Cedar River at 48 degrees, the Skykomish and Tolt 46 degrees and the Skagit checking in with a cold 45 degrees. Cold water shock can be deadly. If you are going to be on the water wear a life jacket.

Upper level ridge weakening Friday night into Saturday. Low level offshore flow turning weak onshore. Winds at 850 and 700 mb turn west northwesterly. With the ridge weakening slightly temperatures aloft cool a touch with model 850 mb temperatures late Saturday afternoon plus 12 or 13C. Another night of mild low temperatures, close to record high minimums in places, in the lower to mid 50s. Highs Saturday much cooler along the coast, in the mid 60s with highs over the interior in the 70s and lower 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Models in good agreement Sunday with the ridge continuing to weaken and an upper level trough riding over the ridge into British Columbia late in the day. This feature doesn't have much punch with just a chance of showers in the Olympics and Cascades north of about Snoqualmie Pass Sunday night. Ensembles are weaker with the upper level trough versus the operational runs. Operational runs have highs only in the 60s for the interior Sunday. Will lean a little towards the ensembles and go for highs in the 60s and lower 70s.

Upper level ridge tries to rebuild Monday but the ridge axis is well offshore and low level onshore flow continues through the day.
Temperatures aloft continue to cool. This combination will lower high temperatures Monday back into the 60s.

Model solutions become inconsistent Tuesday and Wednesday with the ECMWF building a stronger ridge over the area while the GFS has a front approaching from the northwest Wednesday. High temperature spreads by Wednesday rather large. For Seattle 80 percent of the solutions have the high between 78 and 58 degrees.
With the large amount of uncertainty will split the difference and have highs in the 60s and introduce a slight chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Felton

AVIATION
Offshore/northeasterly flow aloft today with a ridge building off the Pacific coast, and inland over Washington today.
Skies remain clear this morning, with offshore flow keeping stratus well off the coast. A couple isolated areas may see patchy fog with the cool temperatures this morning. Otherwise, light northerly/northeast winds should be enough to keep skies clear during the morning rush. Couple terminals (particularly around Puget Sound/Central Strait of Juan de Fuca) may see gusts to 20 kt during the afternoon, but winds generally at 6 to 12 kt in the forecast with VFR skies.

KSEA...VFR/clear skies expected in this forecast. Northeast winds this morning will transition to northerly by 18Z at 08-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt possible.

HPR

MARINE
High pressure has built up some over the waters, and building will continue over the State of Washington today. With a thermal trough underneath the ridge up the coast, flow is predominately offshore with north/northeast winds. Winds for Thursday may gust up to 20 kt in the coastal waters, as well as Puget Sound and Central Strait of Juan de Fuca (but are expected to remain below hazardous levels for small craft). This pattern will continue into the weekend, until a trough moves through the region Saturday/Sunday. Gusty winds above 20 kt are possible in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the outer coastal waters - will continue to monitor for possible headlines.

Seas of 5 to 8 feet through late week into next week.

HPR

HYDROLOGY
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...None.

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Duwamish Waterway
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Thu -- 12:23 AM PDT     5.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:18 AM PDT     11.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:39 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:14 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:41 PM PDT     -2.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM PDT     11.66 feet High Tide
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Thu -- 11:19 PM PDT     Moonset
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Des Moines
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Thu -- 12:20 AM PDT     6.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:22 AM PDT     11.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:39 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:15 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:38 PM PDT     -3.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:00 PM PDT     12.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:18 PM PDT     Moonset
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