Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lutsen, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Rest of Today - Tuesday:

This afternoon, low pressure was located east of Lake Superior with a surface trough extending westward into northwestern Ontario just to the north of the International Border. Cloudy skies and light snow have been observed along this surface trough and as far south as the Iron Range and far northern MN. Some light snow/clouds were also present across parts of northwest WI and in the Bayfield Peninsula, with the snow/clouds in the Bayfield Peninsula forming as a result of lake-effect processes.

As an upper-level low drops south across the area later this afternoon into early tonight, the snow and cloud cover over northern MN should gradually track southward and eastward before ending for all but the South Shore before Tuesday morning.
Little in the way of snowfall is expected with any snow outside of the South Shore. With that said, lake-effect snow lingers in the Bayfield Peninsula from this afternoon through early Tuesday morning and moves into northern Ashland and Iron Counties for this evening into early Tuesday afternoon where several hundred J/kg of lake-induced instability will be generated in favorable fetch of a northwest wind before winds turn more westerly Tuesday PM. Snowfall rates generally remain light, but could approach 0.25-0.5"/hr tonight before rates diminish throughout the morning into midday Tuesday. This would lead to expected snowfall accumulations of 1-2.5" in the Bayfield Peninsula, 0.5-2" in northern Ashland and southern Iron counties, and 2-6" in northern Iron County. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Iron County due to the higher totals in northern Iron County.

Another cold night is in store tonight, though slightly weaker winds and relatively warmer lows in the single digits to teens below zero should keep wind chills about 5 to 10F warmer than they were this morning as some scattered to broken cloud cover is forecast to hang around tonight. Expect wind chills to dip into the teens to 20s below zero. A few spots could touch wind chills of 30 below zero in central and north-central MN, but limited coverage precludes any issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory for now.

Wednesday - Late Friday:

A brief return of above-average temperatures will be the highlight of this period as highs warm into the 20s to around 30F on Wednesday due to warm advection from strong southwest winds, and upper 20s to low/mid 30s on Thursday and Friday.

Conditions will be dry for late Tuesday and most of Wednesday before light snow chances (10-30%) move through the Northland along and behind a cold front Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Snow accumulations look to be very light with this system at the moment, on the order of a dusting to an inch for the Arrowhead and NW WI, and little to no accumulations farther southwest.

Global ensembles/clusters then show fairly good agreement in a clipper system tracking through southern Manitoba/northwest Ontario along or just north of the International Border, which would bring light snow potential to the Northland again Thursday night through Friday night. Most of the synoptic forcing/lift and subsequent QPF/snowfall is progged to be on the northern side of this clipper system. However, there are a handful of global ensemble members that could bring a few inches of snow to far northern MN if the clipper takes a more southerly track.

This Weekend - Next Week:

Aside from some light lingering lake-effect snow in parts of the South Shore on the backside of the late-week clipper, most of the Northland looks to remain dry for this weekend into very early next week. The main concern during this timeframe will be a push of a frigid arctic airmass with high and low temperatures crashing down into the single digits below zero Sunday and next Monday and lows in the negative teens to negative 20s by Sunday and Monday nights. Depending on winds and wind gusts during this timeframe, some cold weather headlines could be needed once again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1151 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

A small burst of light snow with MVFR visibilities and ceilings at BRD into east-central MN will shift east into HYR for this afternoon. Additionally, stratus and MVFR light snow at INL into the Minnesota Arrowhead will gradually sink south later today into tonight, expanding MVFR conditions in lower ceilings and light snow to HIB and DLH into portions of this evening and HYR later this evening into tonight. Northwest winds remain breezy today at 15 to 20 knots and then weaken tonight except for DLH and along the North Shore.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

A small craft advisory is in effect across the North Shore and South Shores tonight through early tomorrow morning. Wind gusts of 22 to 27 knots will persist throughout the night, with wave heights near the Apostle Islands reaching 4 to 5 feet. Locally stronger gusts, in excess of 30 knots, will be along the North Shore. Wind gusts should slowly dissipate and weaken by tomorrow afternoon as high pressure moves in.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.