Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Union Hill-Novelty Hill, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
No significant changes made to the forecast this morning as the forecast remains on track. The previous discussion can be found below along with updates to the aviation section:

A rainy Memorial Day is in store for today, as well as breezy winds and a slight chance for thunderstorms. As for forecast changes, areas from Island County north will be a little bit more shadowed, receiving a few hundredths of an inch of rain.
Areas from Seattle south will receive up to a quarter of an inch. Locally higher amounts are possible in any thunderstorms that develop. Favored locations for thunderstorms, though still a slight chance (10-15%) include the Olympic Peninsula down through the Chehalis Valley. Winds will be strongest along the coast with gusts of 35 to 40 mph, with breezy conditions through the north interior as well. Temperatures will be much cooler today, struggling to get much above the upper 50s to low 60s.

Conditions will remain showery and unstable on Tuesday as the low pressure system continues to move through the Northwest. The areas favoring thunderstorms have been trimmed back to include areas from Chehalis south into far southwestern Washington.
Isolated chances for thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Wednesday for all of western Washington.

Unseasonably large waves will arrive at the coast late today, peaking on Tuesday between 14-16 feet with long periods bringing high surf conditions to the Pacific coast. Waves will decrease throughout the day on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
By midweek, the region is in split flow transitioning to gentle ridging into mid-week. Temperatures begin to warm again from Wednesday onward, getting back into the 70s by Thursday.
Guidance is suggestive of another period of troughing over the northwest late in the week with showers lingering in the forecast. As of now, it looks to only be enough to produce mountain showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.

21

AVIATION
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft today as an upper level low drops southward into the region. A frontal system is moving onshore this morning, resulting in MVFR/IFR cigs along the coast in rain. Rain will continue to push inland this morning, likely making it into the interior sites between 17-19Z. Cigs are expected to lower into MVFR or low-end VFR this afternoon for Puget Sound terminals. Cigs will then continue to fluctuate between VFR/MVFR heading into this evening for most sites, with MVFR ceilings expected to persist along the coast. There remains a low probability (less than 10%) for a thunderstorm along the Olympic Peninsula this afternoon into the evening. In addition, visibilities may briefly drop to 3-5 SM during steadier rain at the terminals, particularly along the coast. Southerly winds will continue to pick up this morning and will peak late this morning into the early afternoon as the front passes through.
Gusts will range between 20-30 kts for terminals along the coast and from Everett northwards, with wind gusts 20-25 kt expected elsewhere.

KSEA...VFR cigs continue for the terminal early this morning.
Rain is expected to move into the terminal between 17-19z as a frontal system moves across the area. Cigs will slowly lower towards low-end VFR by early afternoon, though could briefly dip to MVFR in any heavier shower activity. The probability for MVFR cigs remains highest (around 30-35%) this afternoon, mainly between 21-01Z. Otherwise, predominantly VFR cigs are expected into tonight, with a lowering towards MVFR expected into Tuesday morning. South- southwest winds will increase around 18Z with gusts ranging 20-25 kt through 00Z. Southerly winds will continue, but ease tonight into the overnight period.

JD/14

MARINE
A low pressure system will move across the waters today as a cold front moves through the area. Southerly winds continue to increase early this morning. South winds will peak for the Coastal Waters through mid-morning, with winds peaking for the interior waters during the day. Widespread Small Craft Advisory winds for most waters with the cold front, with gale force gusts over the northern Coastal Waters. Brief gale force wind gusts may also be observed over the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern inland waters, with localized gusts around 35 kts.
Otherwise, SCA wind gusts peaking around 25 kts for Puget Sound this afternoon.

Winds will then slowly subside tonight into early Tuesday. High pressure then quickly rebuilds on Tuesday with winds transitioning more north to northwesterly Tuesday afternoon. SCA northwest wind gusts are then expected at times from Tuesday through much of the week for the outer Coastal Waters. Onshore flow will also increase Thursday through late week, with increasing west winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca each evening. SCA winds are expected late Thursday and again late Friday for the Strait, with potentially gale force winds during this period as well.

Seas of 7 to 10 feet this morning will build further to 12 to 17 feet late today into Tuesday. Seas will slowly decrease on Tuesday, dropping to around 10 feet by Wednesday. Steep seas will also return late Tuesday into Wednesday for the outer Coastal Waters with increasing northwest winds and a period decreasing to around 10 seconds. A long period swell of 7 to 10 feet with a period of 15 seconds will also arrive on Thursday. This will result in the significant wave height rising above 10 feet, before seas slowly ease on Friday. JD

HYDROLOGY
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon PDT Tuesday for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.