Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Poulsbo, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Areas of light rain and drizzle continue across Western Washington early this morning with a warm front draped over the area. Steadier rainfall is expected to increase this morning, particularly over the Olympia Peninsula and King County northwards. The warm front will slowly lift northwards into late Friday. Southerly winds will also increase in the warm sector today, mainly from Snohomish County southwards. Both HRRR/REFS maintain probabilities of 50-80% for wind gusts over 30 MPH this afternoon into tonight from Everett area southwards. Probabilities drop towards less than 10% for gusts of 40 MPH for most areas, although both HRRR/REFS do highlight the Everett (PAE) area for probabilities near 50%. All in all, increased winds are expected for those areas through tonight as well. Snow levels will also range between 5500 to 6500 feet today, resulting in high elevation snow in the Cascades, especially King County northwards in the location of heaviest QPF. Highs will be in the mid 50s for most areas, with upper 40s to low 50s near the BC border.

Steadier rainfall begins to taper off on Saturday, although lingering showers may continue at times. A brief period of drier weather will be possible for some Saturday night before there is another uptick in precipitation potential Sunday, especially along the Olympic Peninsula, with increasing southwest flow aloft. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be a few degrees warmer into the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weak frontal system will move towards Western Washington late Sunday, and bring unsettled weather into Monday for additional showers. The bulk of the energy will move southwards along the West Coast early next week, resulting in a weaker system offshore of Washington. Some uncertainty exists in regards to how long the unsettled weather lasts into Tuesday. At this time, have kept with NBM probabilities for precipitation ranging 20 to 40%.
Another trough looks to move towards the West Coast on Thursday, but once again continued uncertainty exists in ensembles in the depth and location of the trough by late next week. Temperatures do look to cool to near to slightly below normal next week. JD

AVIATION
Southwesterly flow will turn northwesterly today before more westerly tonight into Saturday with upper level troughing over the region becoming more zonal. Latest radar obs show show light showers moving across the region early this morning. Conditions are ranging between VFR to MVFR/LIFR as ceilings and visibility are varying significantly. Lowered ceilings are favored to continue today through Saturday morning, with another round of rainfall starting to develop at this hour, continuing well into the day. Winds will increase out of the south this evening with sustained speeds 10-15 kt and gusting to 25-35 kt before decreasing again overnight into Saturday morning.

KSEA...Conditions have ranged between VFR/MVFR so far this morning, with guidance suggesting that lower ceilings will continue to prevail today into Saturday. Southerly winds will increase this evening to 10-12 kt, gusting to 20-30 kt. HRRR Probabilities of exceeding 30 kt are around 60-80%. Winds will decrease overnight into Saturday morning.

McMillian

MARINE
A small craft advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters, mainly for elevated seas around 10 feet. The SCA will be allowed to expire later this morning. A front draped across area waters will increase southerly winds this afternoon and evening before decreasing overnight. Probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 25 kt range anywhere between 60-80% across Puget Sound with the threat only remaining there. A SCA may be needed for this marine zone today. Weaker systems will approach the area waters throughout the weekend, keeping the marine pattern active.

Seas will fall below 10 feet today. Seas will hover around 6 to 8 feet throughout the weekend.

McMillian

HYDROLOGY
A series of progressive systems will bring rain to western Washington through the weekend. The heaviest rainfall is expected through Saturday, with amounts highest over the Olympic Peninsula, as well as the Cascades of northern King County through Skagit County. Rainfall amounts range between 2-3 inches for these areas, with locally higher amounts near 4 inches possible for the Cascades of Snohomish County. Rivers are expected to rise over the next few days in these areas. At this time, river flooding remains possible on the Skokomish River in Mason County. However, other rivers will also need to be monitored flowing off the Cascades of King, Snohomish, and Skagit Counties. JD

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Saturday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.