Thursday, August6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Skykomish, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday August 6, 2020 5:37 PM PDT (00:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:22PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 249 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 6 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm pdt this evening...
Tonight..N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming se in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of showers.
Fri night..NW wind 5 to 15 kt easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of showers.
Sat..N wind to 10 kt rising to 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..Light wind becoming N to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..N wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..Light wind becoming nw to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..Light wind becoming nw to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 249 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 6 2020
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Onshore flow into this weekend. Gales are likely through the strait of juan de fuca into tonight. Winds will ease overnight into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skykomish, WA
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location: 47.78, -121.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA
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FXUS66 KOTX 062359 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 459 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2020

UPDATE. The Fire Weather Watch has been cancelled. Was waiting to see how much lightning we would see from the high based showers over the Columbia Basin. So far, the only cloud to ground lightning strikes have been east of Walla Walla. The prognoses is for a continued threat of isolated thunderstorms through the rest of this morning, but not see enough lightning for a big threat of new lightning caused fires. It's possible that the lightning activity picks up, but latest radar trends doesn't lend to a high enough confidence for scattered thunderstorms to pan out. Without the threat of scattered new ignitions across the basin, there isn't a high enough threat for the dry conditions to warrant a red flag warning despite the fact that winds will be quite gusty today. /SVH

SYNOPSIS.

A strong cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms today over Eastern Washington and north Idaho. This afternoon and evening will be breezy to windy across most of central and eastern WA. Friday will be cool with many locations staying below 80 degrees. A warming trend will take place over the weekend with highs Monday rebounding into the mid 80s to mid 90s.

DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 244 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2020/

Today: A robust cold front approaches off of the eastern Pacific. The back edge is quite noticeable on water vapor satellite pushing across the northern half of Vancouver Island and not quite reaching coastal WA/OR at around 2 AM. There is ample mid level moisture and fairly steep mid level lapse rates at around 7.5 C/km in the 700-300 mb layer. This is producing scattered showers up into south-central and southeastern Washington and into the southern Idaho Panhandle. Very little in the way of precipitation is being observed with these showers. The atmosphere is still moistening up ahead of the front and it will take until the afternoon hours before the front actually crosses east of the Cascade Mountains. I expect that these showers will become wetter through the morning with an increasing chance for measurable rainfall. Best chances for a few hundredths of accumulating rainfall to up to around a tenth of an inch would be over northeast Washington and into the central to northern Idaho Panhandle. There's a good chance that our streak of dry days will be coming to an end for places like Colville, Chewelah, Deer Park, Spokane, Coeur d'Alene and Sandpoint.

The 06Z NAM solution came in a bit more unstable with around 300-400 J/kg of MUCAPE and supportive of embedded thunderstorms. No lightning has been observed after about midnight and would like to monitor radar/satellite trends into the early morning hours before making a determination on the Fire Weather Watch that is set to go into effect for this afternoon. Lighting activity will be a big determining factor for upgrading to a red flag warning or canceling the watch all together. The reason for this is that I think the main issue with seeing critical fire weather conditions today is if we get the ignitions with the winds. The winds will be on the windy side with widespread gusts of 30-40 mph, especially in the lee of the Cascades. Surface based thunderstorms will possible in the afternoon from around Republic to Sandpoint by the early evening hours. This thunderstorm activity will need to be monitored as well for new ignitions, but these storms will have rain with them, and the best chances for lightning will be closer to the Canadian border where fuels aren't quite as receptive to carrying fire.

Tonight and Friday: Winds will decrease through the night. The upper level trough will be out of the region by Friday. We will be mostly sunny and winds much lighter in magnitude. Temperatures will be much cooler today and that will continue into Friday. We will be about 5-10 degrees below normal by Friday with highs in the 70s to low 80s. /SVH

Friday night through Wednesday: Ensembles and deterministic model runs are in general agreement for the weekend into the middle of next week with upper ridging persisting off the coast resulting in a dry west to northwest flow aloft through the period. The ridging briefly noses into the area Sunday into Monday bringing about a warming trend with Monday likely the warmest day of the forecast with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures will then begin to trend cooler as the ridge flattens in response to an upper trough passing north of the region into central and northern British Columbia Tuesday into Wednesday. Breezy winds are possible especially through the Cascade gaps during this transition to cooler temperatures. Ensemble means suggest temperatures will drop to below normal by the end of next week as the upper trough becomes established over the region. Latest 6-10 day CPC Outlooks show elevated chances of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation from Aug 11-15th. JW

AVIATION. 00Z TAFS: A cold front is passing through the aviation area this evening. In addition to the gusty wind it will bring some light rain showers and even some isolated thunderstorms. The rain will be light enough to allow for the potential for blowing dust as well this afternoon and early evening so all of the above may cause MVFR conditions, otherwise later tonight once the front passes clearing should occur and VFR conditions will prevail. /Pelatti

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Spokane 80 48 76 54 81 51 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 78 49 74 53 79 50 / 40 20 0 0 0 0 Pullman 77 45 72 51 78 48 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 85 55 80 57 86 59 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 82 45 78 52 83 45 / 60 40 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 77 48 73 52 77 47 / 50 40 0 0 10 0 Kellogg 76 50 71 52 76 53 / 30 30 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 83 50 81 57 86 54 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 80 55 81 60 84 58 / 10 0 0 10 0 0 Omak 84 52 81 57 85 55 / 20 10 0 10 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ID . None. WA . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 74 mi38 min N 2.9 G 4.1 59°F 1017.3 hPa55°F
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 80 mi50 min N 7 G 9.9

Wind History for Seattle, Puget Sound, WA, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stampede Pass, WA37 mi42 minW 8 G 199.00 miOvercast49°F45°F86%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSMP

Wind History from SMP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8656454Calm33445--Calm5W8
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1 day ago6SW74SW3SW4SW3SW4SW5SW5SW4SW5546SW5SW644546SW756
2 days agoNW76333SW3SW56SW45SW44SW3SW3SW3SW33Calm4344SW75

Tide / Current Tables for Marysville, Quilceda Creek, Washington
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Marysville
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:06 AM PDT     4.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM PDT     9.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:54 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:52 PM PDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:38 PM PDT     10.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:26 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.65.34.85.26.37.68.798.57.35.63.61.60.2-0.20.62.557.59.610.810.910.28.9

Tide / Current Tables for Everett, Washington
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Everett
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:36 AM PDT     5.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:40 AM PDT     9.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:54 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:22 PM PDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM PDT     11.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:26 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.55.55.46.17.18.39.19.38.67.15.12.90.9-0.101.33.568.410.211.211.210.38.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Spokane, WA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.