Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quilcene, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure remains in place across western Washington this afternoon, in the warm sector of an approaching frontal system.
Temperatures will continue a warming trend today, peaking in the 60s across much of the lowlands. However, this will be the warmest day of the period before a more active weather pattern settles into the region.

A splitting frontal system will enter the Pacific Northwest later today, spreading light showers inland over the Olympic Peninsula later this afternoon and further inland throughout the morning Monday. Showers may linger into the afternoon over higher terrain and along the Pacific Coast, and high resolution models continue to hint at post frontal convergence zone showers continuing over the northern Puget Sound into Monday evening. Precipitation amounts with this system will be light, with roughly a tenth or two of rainfall across the interior lowlands and up to an inch over higher terrain of the Olympics and Cascades. Temperatures Monday will also return back into the 50s for most areas, where they will stay for the rest of the week.

High pressure will rebound across western Washington into Tuesday, allowing conditions to briefly dry out. With light winds in place, patchy morning fog may form early Tuesday, but confidence is low. Tuesday will be a seasonable fall day with partly cloudy skies, some sun breaks, and high temperatures near normal. Chances for any rain on Tuesday will be confined to the Pacific Coast, with dry conditions inland.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A more active weather pattern will settle into western Washington Wednesday and beyond as a series of troughs pass over the Pacific Northwest. Forecast models show good agreement over the general synoptic pattern, but continue to show some disagreement over the track of the low pressure system entering the region towards the latter half of the week. While some ensembles show the trough moving inland over Washington and Oregon oN Thursday and Friday, other ensembles show the low stalling southward along the California Coast before pushing inland over the weekend. While precipitation amounts remain uncertain at this time, confidence is high that western Washington will see continued wet and cloudy conditions Wednesday through the weekend. Near normal temperatures in the low 50s across the lowlands are expected throughout the long term.

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AVIATION
An upper level ridge will weaken and shift east of the terminals this afternoon, with southwest flow increasing aloft ahead of a trough/weakening cold frontal system arriving late tonight/Monday. VFR conditions will continue regionwide through tonight with mid and high level clouds continuing to fill in. Winds remain out of the south 4-8 kt in the interior (couple gusts to 20 kt possible along the coast through late this afternoon).

Showers will arrive along the coast shortly after 00Z, reaching the interior terminals by 09Z. Once the showers passes, ceilings will lower to MVFR (likely between 1,000 to 2,000 ft). There is a lower chance (20%) of IFR ceilings in the Puget Sound/Kitsap interior, and a higher chance (30%) along the coast with a 25% chance of LIFR ceilings. Some mist will likely accompany the lower ceilings (especially along the coast and the south interior). Ceilings will gradually lift late in the morning. Some areas may see improvements to VFR late in the afternoon/evening (though there are some model disagreements into how much ceilings improve and the areas), but models agree that ceilings will lift at least above 2,000 ft going into the afternoon. Area likely to keep ceilings low is the Snohomish County area, where a weak convergence zone may prolong showers into the afternoon. Expect breezy southwest winds across much of the interior early Monday morning (as the front passes, gusts up to 15-20 kt possible, with winds turning W/NW in the afternoon/evening behind the front.

KSEA...VFR up through 12-14Z, high clouds gradually lowering through the evening/early morning as showers arrive around 09Z. MVFR is likely from roughly 14Z through at least late afternoon (some uncertainty for improvement to VFR but the earliest likely time for ceilings to lift above 3,000 ft is around 00-02Z Tuesday). Winds will remain out of the SW 4-8 kt, with gusts to 15 kt early Monday morning. A convergence zone to the north may turn winds northeast briefly (under 6 kt) after 00Z Tuesday through 03Z before turning back to the south.

HPR

MARINE
A ridge with high pressure will continue to shift inland today as a splitting front passes through the waters tonight. High pressure will rebuild in behind the front Monday through Tuesday, before another front moves through Wednesday and Thursday. A small craft advisory remains in effect through 12Z Monday for retreating gusty winds along the outer coastal waters through late tonight over 20 kt (as well as 10-12 ft seas). A push down the Strait of Juan de Fuca Monday night/Tuesday may bring breezy winds over 20 kt. The frontal system Wednesday/Thursday may also bring wind gusts over 20 kt to the coastal waters.

Seas Monday will decrease to 6 to 8 ft, and increase back to 9 to 12 ft Wednesday through Friday.

HPR

HYDROLOGY
A frontal system will bring light rainfall to western Washington later tonight into Monday morning, with the heaviest amounts up to an inch focused over the northwestern Olympic Peninsula and North Cascades. High pressure will provide a lull in rain before chances for heavier precipitation increase towards the end of the week. No flooding is expected over the next 7 days.

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SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.