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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 219 Am Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Tonight..Light wind becoming S to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves less than 1 ft becoming 1 ft or less after midnight. A slight chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..SE wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the morning then rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..S wind 20 to 30 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming se to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Sun..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.

PZZ100 219 Am Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A weak surface ridge over the waters will give way to a frontal system arriving Thursday morning. A more vigorous system will follow on Friday. This will begin an active period of weather with a series of potent frontal systems reaching the waters in rapid succession through early next week.

FXUS66 KSEW 291100 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 300 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry and cold weather will persist today, before a weak front slides through the area on Thursday for lowland rain and snow in the mountains. A more vigorous front entering the area on Friday will bring significant snow to the mountains, rain in the lowlands, and breezy conditions along the coast. An active weather pattern looks to continue through next week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Latest satellite imagery depicts once again widespread fog across southern Puget sound, extending through Grays Harbor County, as well through the Strait of Juan De Fuca, and up through Western Whatcom County. Current temperatures within these areas are mainly around 30 to 35 degrees, with the threat of freezing fog continuing this morning.
Therefore, will keep the Freezing Fog Advisory in place through the morning for these aforementioned areas, including Seattle metro as well in this morning update. Take extra time to travel this morning, with the roads and sidewalks potentially being slick due to the lower temperatures/moisture.

With the upper level ridge having moved largely out of the area, this puts Western Washington in somewhat of a split flow pattern - with a weaker ridge to the north of the area, and a shortwave to our south. This will give way to to one last day of drier weather.
The stagnant foggy conditions will continue through the morning and possibly into the early afternoon through the area, before improving by late afternoon. High temps will stay in the lower 40s to mid 40s, with some high clouds filtering in through W WA.

Troughing begins to develop more soundly across the NE Pacific tonight and into Thursday, highlighting a pattern change across W WA. A weak front will enter the area on Thursday for light lowland rain and mountain snow. Snow levels will initially be lower with this system, around 1500 to 2500 feet, allowing for some snow to accumulate at the passes, although generally light, with 2 to 5 inches possible at Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass by Friday morning. Definitely will see an gradual uptick in overnight temps Thursday onward, being above freezing, with not much expected in terms of freezing fog coverage like the last several nights.

A more vigorous frontal system will enter the area on Friday, bringing significant mountain snow and valley rain along with it.
This will mark the beginning of a very active weather pattern for Western Washington. Troughing will influence our area more directly, with cooler temperatures and lower snow levels. Snow levels will largely be around 2000 to 3000 feet, suggesting more moderate to heavier snow throughout the mountains. In collaboration with surrounding offices and WPC, headlines will likely be issued in the next forecast package.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The active weather pattern continues as another frontal system pushes through W WA on Saturday night, bringing another round of rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds. Although during this time, snow levels look to gradually rise through the mountains, with mainly snow accumulations in the higher elevations. Ensemble and deterministic guidance differ on specific precip amounts, but it is looking more than likely that hydro concerns will need to be monitored especially in the long term.

A very weak brief ridge subtly influences the region on Monday before a low over the Gulf of Alaska protrudes through W WA.
Ensembles are hinting at a very moist southwesterly flow being tapped in from the Pacific and pulling it right into our region.
Models are trying to signal a potential atmospheric river through the remainder of the long term, although ensemble and deterministic guidance vary on intensity and location. These details will likely be monitored over the next couple of days.

Temperatures do look to warm in the long term, with highs in the 50s, and overnight lows staying in the mid 40s.

Mazurkiewicz

AVIATION
Light westerly flow aloft continues across Western Washington this morning as the region remains under the influence of weak upper level ridging. Surface flow remains light and is favorable for the expansion of LIFR conditions in dense fog across much of the lowland interior from Puget Sound southward to the Chehalis Gap. Areas of fog will persist through 18Z then gradually lift and scatter toward 20Z. High and mid level moisture will increase this afternoon and tonight as a frontal system approaches.

KSEA...As of 10Z, LIFR/IFR conditions were developing in the vicinity of the terminal and are expected to impact the airport from 12Z through about 18Z before lifting and scattering by around 20Z. Increasing high and mid level clouds ahead of approaching front tonight should preclude the redevelopment of fog/stratus.
Surface wind light and variable today becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 knots tonight. 27

MARINE
Light winds continue across area waters today as a weak surface ridge and light surface gradients remain in place. An approaching front will bring a return of Small Craft Advisory winds to the coastal waters late tonight and Thursday. Headlines will likely expand to the remainder of the waters later Thursday and Friday as active weather ensues. The front on Thursday will be followed by a more vigorous system on Friday that will potentially produce gales over portions of the coastal waters as well as near the east entrance to the strait. A series of potent frontal systems will reach the waters in rapid succession through early next week

Coastal seas will breach 10 feet on Friday and remain hazardous thereafter until further notice. 27

HYDROLOGY
With the upcoming pattern change suggesting more rain in the forecast, area rivers are likely to see rises through the weekend and likely into next week. While extended models have had trouble at arriving at a consensus, making it difficult to get a grasp on the full potential impacts to the area, there is at least enough consistency to suggest that hydrologic products may be needed late in the weekend and for the start of next week.
Unfortunately, the scope of these products is hard to nail down at this time. Forecasts will need to be monitored for the remainder of the week in the hopes that a singular solution will eventually emerge.

18/Mazurkiewicz

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for Hood Canal Area- Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Western Whatcom County.

PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight PST Thursday night for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

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Lofall
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Wed -- 07:01 AM PST     11.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:29 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:11 PM PST     7.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:21 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:35 PM PST     9.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:59 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lofall, Washington, Tide feet

Hazel Point
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Wed -- 12:26 AM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:49 AM PST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:21 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:21 AM PST     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:29 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:55 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:21 PM PST     0.11 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:21 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:32 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:59 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:28 PM PST     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hazel Point, Washington Current, knots

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