Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:27 AM   Moonset 4:35 PM

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FXUS66 KOTX 051128 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 423 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rain will expand today across the PacNW today and tonight. As the low slides east, conditions will remain cool and showery and breezy. Warmer and drier weather will arrive late next week. Next weekend has the potential to deliver our warmest temperatures of the spring so far.

DISCUSSION

Today through Monday night...The circulating low will continue to slide through, bringing with the a band of rain. As of 230 AM, the band of rain has stretched itself from Tri-Cities to Ritzville and will continue to expand through the PacNW, with beneficial moisture.
While it's not April anymore, we hope these showers will bring May flowers by the end of the month. Chilly temperatures and wet conditions will leave the day not ideal for outdoor activities. High temperatures will hover around 50, with little variation in temperatures today. Winds will begin to increase late this afternoon into evening through the Okanogan Valley as the next system moves onshore. The band of rain will move eastward through the evening, with rain totals of 0.25 to 0.65 inches mainly east of a line from Omak to Moses Lake.

On Monday, the low pressure treks east, with westerly winds increasing across the PacNW. Rain and mountain snow showers are expected, especially over the mountains. Some lightning strikes are possible over Eastern WA as there is some MUCAPE available in the atmosphere. Cooler and drier air will move in Monday night. /KM

Tuesday through Wednesday night: Windy and showery. The flow aloft becomes more pronounced from the north to northwest flow as the slow moving low tracks into MT. A surface trough over eastern WA keeps pressure gradients packed and ushers in brisk north to northwest winds. Wind gusts of 35-40 mph are possible across north central WA and southeast WA into the southern ID Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon and evening, then gradually decrease overnight.
Showers redevelop Tuesday afternoon and evening primarily across extreme eastern WA into north ID. With snow levels low in the early morning hours, they rise to 3-4K ft by afternoon and light snow accumulations will be seen the central Cascades, Blue mountains, and Panhandle mountains. For Wednesday, still can anticipate lingering showers over north Idaho but with less coverage. It will remain slightly cooler than normal with daytime temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday and overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. By Wednesday, it will be warming into the seasonal 60s with lighter northwest winds.

Thursday through Sunday: Drier and warmer. Confidence is growing that a strong upper level ridge will set up over the eastern Pacific and shift into the Pacific NW by the weekend. A few mountain showers may develop for Thursday afternoon in north Idaho, but drier and more stable conditions arrive. Winds continue to decrease and shift from the north and east. Under the dry ridge of high pressure, the more noticeable change will be the marked warming trend with temperatures in the 70s on Thursday and Friday, and reaching the 80s by the weekend! That would be above normal by 10 to 15 degrees. /rfox.

AVIATION
12Z TAFS: Rain bands will increase across Eastern Washington this morning, before shifting eastward throughout the day. Ceilings will drop to VFR in the rain bands and behind. Winds will also increase across the region this afternoon and overnight, with gusts up to 30kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Chances for MVFR ceilings expand early Sunday morning to KLWS, KPUW, and KGEG.
There is moderate probability of visibility dropping below 3SM at Taf sites. Ensembles have brief periods of 2SM or lower for KGEG- KSFF-KCOE-KPUW.

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 50 40 56 36 59 38 / 90 100 60 20 10 0 Coeur d'Alene 50 40 53 36 54 38 / 90 90 70 40 30 10 Pullman 45 38 52 34 52 36 / 100 100 60 40 20 10 Lewiston 55 44 60 41 60 41 / 100 100 60 40 30 10 Colville 52 39 59 33 60 35 / 100 100 60 40 20 0 Sandpoint 51 40 52 36 53 39 / 100 100 80 50 50 10 Kellogg 48 39 48 36 49 38 / 80 100 90 60 60 20 Moses Lake 58 38 63 39 64 37 / 80 30 20 0 0 0 Wenatchee 59 45 59 41 59 40 / 50 20 20 0 0 0 Omak 62 45 65 37 64 38 / 60 40 20 10 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.

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