Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manson, WA
November 30, 2023 8:10 PM PST (04:10 UTC)
Sunrise 7:24AM Sunset 4:15PM Moonrise 6:53PM Moonset 11:06AM
Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA
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FXUS66 KOTX 010057 AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 457 PM PST Thu Nov 30 2023
SYNOPSIS
A significant pattern change develops late tonight and persist through the weekend and beyond. Most locations will see several rounds of snow through the weekend, before warmer air surges into the region from the south. This will gradually turn all the snow to rain, with only high elevation snow expected by early next week. Snow amounts in the Cascades will be extremely heavy with travel difficulties expected this weekend. Much warmer but wet weather will continue through next week, with a significant snow melt expected in the valleys.
DISCUSSION
...Extremely wet and snowy weather expected to develop beginning Friday and persisting through next week...
Tonight through Saturday: Flurries will continue to fall intermittently from the blanket of stratus overhead through this evening until a steadier round of snow moves in later tonight.
The first of several shortwaves will track through the region overnight, kicking off a multi-day event that will bring widespread snowfall with particularly impressive accumulations in the mountains. This first round tonight will drop around an inch of snow for the eastern third of WA and the northern ID Panhandle, which could make for a slick Friday morning commute.
The second round will arrive in central WA late Friday morning and will scoot eastward from there, making it to eastern WA and northern ID by Friday afternoon - just in time to create slick, snowy roads for the evening commute in the Spokane Metro and surrounding areas.
Friday night into Saturday will feature the third round of snow, which will likely produce higher snow amounts for the mountains than the first two rounds. This round, like the last two, will move from the Cascades eastward into the ID Panhandle. For Stevens Pass, the heaviest snowfall rates (upward of an inch per hour) are expected Friday night into early Saturday morning. Heaviest snow for Lookout Pass will be later Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.
All in all, the Cascade Passes will see three to four feet of snow total by the time the weekend is over. Central WA lowlands will accumulate 1 to 3 inches, eastern WA 2 to 6 inches, and northern ID 3 to 8 inches.
If you must travel over the mountain passes this weekend, check pass reports beforehand, share your travel plans with friends and family, pack an emergency supply kit, and make sure your vehicle is fully winterized. /Fewkes
Sunday to Thursday: the Inland NW weather remains wet, while temperatures start to warm above normal for many locations. This means the pattern gradually changes from one dominated by snow to one feature mainly mountain snow and lowland rain. Temperatures will be warming through the period, peaking about 10 degrees above normal on Tuesday. One frontal system moves through the region Sunday, tapping an atmospheric river with PWATs around 0.70 or 200% of normal. This relatively quick moving system is lead in with a warm front early in the day, with the cold front/upper trough coming across the Cascades and heading toward the ID Panhandle between mid-Sunday morning and early Sunday evening.
That moisture feeding into and along these features will bring likely precipitation chances to most of the area through the day, though chances will start to wane in the lee of the Cascades through the middle to later afternoon. Then the best chances for precipitation retreat into the mountains for Sunday night into Monday morning.
* Precipitation amounts and type: Precipitation amounts are forecast to be moderate to heavy in many places. In the lowlands this translates to about 0.25 to 0.50 of liquid precipitation, locally near 0.75 inches in lower elevations of the ID Panhandle. A drier exception will be in the lee of the Cascades and deeper Columbia Basin where some areas may not see a tenth of an inch. The mountains will see around 0.75 to 1 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation, locally over 2 inches near the Cascade crest. The more complex part of the forecast will be determining the precipitation types. With PWATs numbers as described above (near 0.70), it becomes more difficult to have all snow. The mountains, including the passes, are expected to be mainly snow. However when you get into some of the more southern passes, such as Blewett Pass, we start to see some rain potential mix in. So what about elsewhere? Models start to nose milder air into the region from the south. Areas along and north of US-2, including much of the Spokane Area, the higher Palouse and areas toward the Waterville Plateau westward are expected to start off Sunday with snow as the dominant precipitation type. South of there a rain/snow mix or all rain is expected. Then models start nose that warm air north through the day, leading to a transition to a rain/snow mix or all rain. How quickly that occurs and how far north is the more complex part. The northern zones, from Okanogan County eastward to the Boundary and Bonner county, are expected to hold onto air colder air longer and thus snow remaining the more dominant precipitation type with this system. (Places like the Methow Valley are one of those spots that tends to hold onto colder air longer.) So these areas may see the the potential for some moderate snow continuing.
Additional advisories may be needed. As for the mountains, especially places like Steven and Lookout Pass some moderate to heavy snow may be found around 4-10 inches.
* Winds: the day starts off relatively benign wind wise, but as the cold front and upper trough start to push in through the afternoon look for increasing winds. Peak winds are expected around the mid-afternoon to early evening hours around the Upper Columbia Basin to Palouse and Spokane/CdA area and central Panhandle and near the Cascades, with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts near 20-30 mph. Local gusts near 40 mph are possible downwind of the Blue Mountains into the lower Palouse in that period too.
Later Monday into Thursday a second system moves slowly through the region, tapping an even wetter atmospheric river with PWATs around 0.80-1.0 inches or 250-300% of normal. A deepening long- wave trough sets-up over the eastern Pacific and amplifies a ridge over the region. The leading warm front lifting into the region Monday afternoon and it is not until Tuesday night into Wednesday that the parent trough sends a shortwave into the region and shifts a cold front into the region. Then Wednesday night into Thursday additional shortwaves pivot into the region as the parent trough continues to shift inland. So this set-up gives an overall different focus from day-to-day. Precipitation chances start to increase throughout the region Monday and gradually increases Monday night into Tuesday and remains high through Wednesday and Thursday. The details will continue to be fine-tuned as we get more information with the complex and many-layered system. Overall this system looks milder, with rain the much more dominant precipitation type. That even includes places like Stevens and Lookout Pass until later Wednesday into Thursday when the parent trough starts inland and draws in some cooler air again. Through the period between Monday and Thursday many areas could pick up 0.75 to 1 inches of precipitation, locally over 2 inches in the mountains and over 4 inches near the Cascade crest. Mind you that is over an 3.5 days, which breaks down to about a quarter to a third of an inch a day in the lowlands and around a half to three- quarters of an inch a day in the mountains, locally near 1.5 inches per day around the Cascade crest. With those amounts and the milder air we will look toward hydrology concerns, with the potential for rises on especially small streams and creeks and ponding of water in urban and poor drainage areas or even debris flows of mudslides in steeper terrain. Winds will remain breezy Monday, with gusts near 15-20 mph. /Solveig
AVIATION
00Z TAFs: A very active weather pattern expected through this weekend. Widespread stratus cover this evening with marginal VFR conditions. Snow showers at times will produce visibility between 1-3 miles and IFR conditions across the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene corridor. A weak weather system late tonight will bring a round of snow between 06-15Z mainly across southeast Washington into the southern to central Idaho Panhandle including GEG-SFF-COE-PUW airports. Accumulations will be light but lower ceilings and reduce visibility will deteriorate weather conditions with IFR to low IFR conditions expected. A second round of snow starts into the Cascades around 12Z and expands east into EAT/MWH by 13-16Z and into GEG-SFF-COE-PUW-LWS by 18-20Z. This second round of snow is expected to bring a period of moderate snowfall across southeast Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle into Friday afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is high for a period of light snow overnight and Friday morning with IFR conditions at GEG-SFF-COE-PUW. Moderate snow intensities are more likely late Friday morning into the afternoon for these same areas with IFR conditions continuing (moderate to high confidence). /SVH
Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 22 32 26 37 28 44 / 40 70 70 80 40 90 Coeur d'Alene 24 32 27 37 28 43 / 60 70 80 90 40 90 Pullman 22 32 28 38 32 44 / 60 80 70 90 50 100 Lewiston 27 38 33 46 37 49 / 50 70 50 80 50 100 Colville 17 30 19 35 18 35 / 40 60 60 80 40 100 Sandpoint 22 28 24 33 25 38 / 60 70 80 90 40 100 Kellogg 25 33 30 36 31 43 / 70 80 80 100 50 100 Moses Lake 23 33 22 39 30 43 / 40 70 30 40 50 70 Wenatchee 25 33 26 39 30 38 / 40 70 50 60 50 80 Omak 24 32 25 40 27 38 / 30 50 50 70 40 80
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday for Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Northern Panhandle.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday to 4 PM PST Sunday for Central Panhandle Mountains.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area- Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 10 AM PST Sunday for Northeast Blue Mountains.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 457 PM PST Thu Nov 30 2023
SYNOPSIS
A significant pattern change develops late tonight and persist through the weekend and beyond. Most locations will see several rounds of snow through the weekend, before warmer air surges into the region from the south. This will gradually turn all the snow to rain, with only high elevation snow expected by early next week. Snow amounts in the Cascades will be extremely heavy with travel difficulties expected this weekend. Much warmer but wet weather will continue through next week, with a significant snow melt expected in the valleys.
DISCUSSION
...Extremely wet and snowy weather expected to develop beginning Friday and persisting through next week...
Tonight through Saturday: Flurries will continue to fall intermittently from the blanket of stratus overhead through this evening until a steadier round of snow moves in later tonight.
The first of several shortwaves will track through the region overnight, kicking off a multi-day event that will bring widespread snowfall with particularly impressive accumulations in the mountains. This first round tonight will drop around an inch of snow for the eastern third of WA and the northern ID Panhandle, which could make for a slick Friday morning commute.
The second round will arrive in central WA late Friday morning and will scoot eastward from there, making it to eastern WA and northern ID by Friday afternoon - just in time to create slick, snowy roads for the evening commute in the Spokane Metro and surrounding areas.
Friday night into Saturday will feature the third round of snow, which will likely produce higher snow amounts for the mountains than the first two rounds. This round, like the last two, will move from the Cascades eastward into the ID Panhandle. For Stevens Pass, the heaviest snowfall rates (upward of an inch per hour) are expected Friday night into early Saturday morning. Heaviest snow for Lookout Pass will be later Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.
All in all, the Cascade Passes will see three to four feet of snow total by the time the weekend is over. Central WA lowlands will accumulate 1 to 3 inches, eastern WA 2 to 6 inches, and northern ID 3 to 8 inches.
If you must travel over the mountain passes this weekend, check pass reports beforehand, share your travel plans with friends and family, pack an emergency supply kit, and make sure your vehicle is fully winterized. /Fewkes
Sunday to Thursday: the Inland NW weather remains wet, while temperatures start to warm above normal for many locations. This means the pattern gradually changes from one dominated by snow to one feature mainly mountain snow and lowland rain. Temperatures will be warming through the period, peaking about 10 degrees above normal on Tuesday. One frontal system moves through the region Sunday, tapping an atmospheric river with PWATs around 0.70 or 200% of normal. This relatively quick moving system is lead in with a warm front early in the day, with the cold front/upper trough coming across the Cascades and heading toward the ID Panhandle between mid-Sunday morning and early Sunday evening.
That moisture feeding into and along these features will bring likely precipitation chances to most of the area through the day, though chances will start to wane in the lee of the Cascades through the middle to later afternoon. Then the best chances for precipitation retreat into the mountains for Sunday night into Monday morning.
* Precipitation amounts and type: Precipitation amounts are forecast to be moderate to heavy in many places. In the lowlands this translates to about 0.25 to 0.50 of liquid precipitation, locally near 0.75 inches in lower elevations of the ID Panhandle. A drier exception will be in the lee of the Cascades and deeper Columbia Basin where some areas may not see a tenth of an inch. The mountains will see around 0.75 to 1 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation, locally over 2 inches near the Cascade crest. The more complex part of the forecast will be determining the precipitation types. With PWATs numbers as described above (near 0.70), it becomes more difficult to have all snow. The mountains, including the passes, are expected to be mainly snow. However when you get into some of the more southern passes, such as Blewett Pass, we start to see some rain potential mix in. So what about elsewhere? Models start to nose milder air into the region from the south. Areas along and north of US-2, including much of the Spokane Area, the higher Palouse and areas toward the Waterville Plateau westward are expected to start off Sunday with snow as the dominant precipitation type. South of there a rain/snow mix or all rain is expected. Then models start nose that warm air north through the day, leading to a transition to a rain/snow mix or all rain. How quickly that occurs and how far north is the more complex part. The northern zones, from Okanogan County eastward to the Boundary and Bonner county, are expected to hold onto air colder air longer and thus snow remaining the more dominant precipitation type with this system. (Places like the Methow Valley are one of those spots that tends to hold onto colder air longer.) So these areas may see the the potential for some moderate snow continuing.
Additional advisories may be needed. As for the mountains, especially places like Steven and Lookout Pass some moderate to heavy snow may be found around 4-10 inches.
* Winds: the day starts off relatively benign wind wise, but as the cold front and upper trough start to push in through the afternoon look for increasing winds. Peak winds are expected around the mid-afternoon to early evening hours around the Upper Columbia Basin to Palouse and Spokane/CdA area and central Panhandle and near the Cascades, with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts near 20-30 mph. Local gusts near 40 mph are possible downwind of the Blue Mountains into the lower Palouse in that period too.
Later Monday into Thursday a second system moves slowly through the region, tapping an even wetter atmospheric river with PWATs around 0.80-1.0 inches or 250-300% of normal. A deepening long- wave trough sets-up over the eastern Pacific and amplifies a ridge over the region. The leading warm front lifting into the region Monday afternoon and it is not until Tuesday night into Wednesday that the parent trough sends a shortwave into the region and shifts a cold front into the region. Then Wednesday night into Thursday additional shortwaves pivot into the region as the parent trough continues to shift inland. So this set-up gives an overall different focus from day-to-day. Precipitation chances start to increase throughout the region Monday and gradually increases Monday night into Tuesday and remains high through Wednesday and Thursday. The details will continue to be fine-tuned as we get more information with the complex and many-layered system. Overall this system looks milder, with rain the much more dominant precipitation type. That even includes places like Stevens and Lookout Pass until later Wednesday into Thursday when the parent trough starts inland and draws in some cooler air again. Through the period between Monday and Thursday many areas could pick up 0.75 to 1 inches of precipitation, locally over 2 inches in the mountains and over 4 inches near the Cascade crest. Mind you that is over an 3.5 days, which breaks down to about a quarter to a third of an inch a day in the lowlands and around a half to three- quarters of an inch a day in the mountains, locally near 1.5 inches per day around the Cascade crest. With those amounts and the milder air we will look toward hydrology concerns, with the potential for rises on especially small streams and creeks and ponding of water in urban and poor drainage areas or even debris flows of mudslides in steeper terrain. Winds will remain breezy Monday, with gusts near 15-20 mph. /Solveig
AVIATION
00Z TAFs: A very active weather pattern expected through this weekend. Widespread stratus cover this evening with marginal VFR conditions. Snow showers at times will produce visibility between 1-3 miles and IFR conditions across the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene corridor. A weak weather system late tonight will bring a round of snow between 06-15Z mainly across southeast Washington into the southern to central Idaho Panhandle including GEG-SFF-COE-PUW airports. Accumulations will be light but lower ceilings and reduce visibility will deteriorate weather conditions with IFR to low IFR conditions expected. A second round of snow starts into the Cascades around 12Z and expands east into EAT/MWH by 13-16Z and into GEG-SFF-COE-PUW-LWS by 18-20Z. This second round of snow is expected to bring a period of moderate snowfall across southeast Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle into Friday afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is high for a period of light snow overnight and Friday morning with IFR conditions at GEG-SFF-COE-PUW. Moderate snow intensities are more likely late Friday morning into the afternoon for these same areas with IFR conditions continuing (moderate to high confidence). /SVH
Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 22 32 26 37 28 44 / 40 70 70 80 40 90 Coeur d'Alene 24 32 27 37 28 43 / 60 70 80 90 40 90 Pullman 22 32 28 38 32 44 / 60 80 70 90 50 100 Lewiston 27 38 33 46 37 49 / 50 70 50 80 50 100 Colville 17 30 19 35 18 35 / 40 60 60 80 40 100 Sandpoint 22 28 24 33 25 38 / 60 70 80 90 40 100 Kellogg 25 33 30 36 31 43 / 70 80 80 100 50 100 Moses Lake 23 33 22 39 30 43 / 40 70 30 40 50 70 Wenatchee 25 33 26 39 30 38 / 40 70 50 60 50 80 Omak 24 32 25 40 27 38 / 30 50 50 70 40 80
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday for Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Northern Panhandle.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday to 4 PM PST Sunday for Central Panhandle Mountains.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area- Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 10 AM PST Sunday for Northeast Blue Mountains.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
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