Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Picnic Point, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Satellite imagery shows clouds increasing over the area early this morning. Rain out ahead of the approaching front has already arrived along the north coast. Clear skies earlier allowed temperatures to drop into the lower 40s over the Southwest Interior. Temperatures over the remainder of the area at 3 am/10z were in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Front picking up a little speed this morning. Frontal passage expected along the coast later this morning, in the Puget Sound area late morning with the front moving into the Cascades early this afternoon. Post frontal showers beginning to diminish later this afternoon except in the convergence zone that develops over Snohomish County. Chance of thunderstorms in the convergence zone.
Highs near 60.

Post frontal shower activity drying up overnight as upper level ridge begins to build into Western Washington. Convergence zone dissipating in the evening. Low level flow becoming light early Saturday morning. With the low level moisture from Friday's rain patchy fog developing in the fog prone areas like the Southwest Interior. Lows in the 40s.

Upper level ridge continuing to build Saturday with the ridge remaining over the area through the weekend. Ridge axis bouncing back and forth between Western and Eastern Washington but the ridge will keep storms out of the region. Patchy fog dissipating Saturday morning with plenty of afternoon sunshine warming highs in the lower to mid 60s. A little warmer Sunday with highs in the 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Extended models in good agreement Monday with the upper level ridge shifting east. Some differences in the models on just how intact and when the next front arrives into the area. The ECMWF has a weak front moving through Tuesday while the GFS solution keeps the front more intact and delays the front into Wednesday. Ensemble solutions generally agree with the operational runs making for a broad brush mostly cloudy chance of rain forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. Model solutions continue to diverge Thursday with the ECMWF building a ridge over the area ahead of a digging upper level back near 40N/140W. The GFS has the trough a little closer to the coast and keeps Western Washington in southwesterly flow aloft without a ridge. While the operational runs are dry there are enough wet solutions in the ensembles to have a slight chance of rain in the forecast for Thursday.

Highs Monday in the lower 70s over the southern portion with 60s for the remainder of the area. Highs a little cooler Tuesday through Thursday, in the lower to mid 60s. Felton

AVIATION
An upper level trough and occluded front will pass through the region today. The flow ahead of the trough aloft will be southwest, and will switch to northwest post trough late today. A line of rain showers will progress from over the coastal waters inland this morning. Moderate to heavy rainfall rates may drop visibilities to IFR briefly at a few terminals. The main line of rain will pass through late this morning, with ceilings dropping to MVFR with the rain showers. Post front, a convergence zone is expected in southern Snohomish County in the afternoon. Additional showers will also linger in the northern terminals, and South Interior. There is a low risk of thunder in the convergence zone, however predictability is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds at the surface will also pick up this afternoon out of the southwest, sustained at 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt possible. Ceilings will improve later tonight to VFR as the front clears. Winds will also decrease below 10 kt.

KSEA...A line of rain will pass through the terminal between 12Z and 18Z this morning. Moderate to heavy rainfall rates may briefly drop visibilities into IFR criteria. Ceilings will drop to MVFR with the rain. This afternoon's convergence zone is expected to remain north of the terminal (although a few additional showers are possible in the afternoon). Winds will pick up this afternoon, peaking out of the southwest at 10 to 15 kt gusting to 20 kt. Ceilings will improve later this evening, and winds will diminish below 10 kt.

HPR

MARINE
A weakening occluded front will sweep through the region this morning/afternoon. A line of moderate to heavy rain continues to move east over the coastal waters. Rainfall rates may temporarily reduce visibilities to mariners over the waters as the line progresses eastward this morning.

As the front moves through, seas are expected to build up to 9 to 11 feet at 10 seconds this afternoon. The steepest seas will be in the outer coastal waters, and in the inner waterway zones from Cape Elizabeth to Neah Bay in the western Strait of Juan de Fuca. The small craft advisory continues with the elevated seas being the main concern. For the inland waters, winds are expected to pick up this afternoon in the central Strait of Juan de Fuca, with westerlies increasing up to 25 kt, and possible gusts over 30 kt. With model guidance showing the increase potential for westerlies making it into the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, the small craft advisory was expanded to include the eastern section. Additionally, a couple gusts up to 25 kt are possible in the Northern Inland Waters from Birch Bay to Blanchard (though sustained winds are not expected to exceed 20 kt).

Once the trough departs eastward, the seas will drop to 4 to 6 feet through the weekend, building back to 6 to 8 feet next week. Winds will drop to 5 to 10 kt.

HPR

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight PDT tonight for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.