Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 2:12 AM   Moonset 11:01 AM

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LSZ142 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0034.000000t0000z-231005t2330z/ 609 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4751 8988 4712 9014 4710 9027 4709 9066 4710 9066 4723 9053 4771 9048 4781 9016 4786 8993 time - .mot - .loc 2308z 252deg 36kt 4766 9039 4735 9042 4726 9045 4713 9056

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 012330 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 630 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Light precipitation is expected through tomorrow afternoon with total QPF amounts remaining under 0.2”

- Cooler and drier conditions through midweek

- Active pattern returns to our region late week and into the weekend with multiple chances for precipitation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Short Term:

Scattered clouds through this afternoon will become more widespread across our area as well as increase in coverage as a shortwave trough drops out of the Canadian Prairies and into the Northern Plains. This will be the focus of any precipitation that we see in the coming 24 hours. Initially a warm front will move through the area this afternoon bringing showers and drizzle with it as it passes through the area. It appears that Central Minnesota may not see much precipitation with this initial round due to a fair bit of dry air closer to the surface. Conversely, areas east of I-35, and near the border with Canada have better rain chances due to marginally more moist lower levels. By late tonight most of the precipitation from the front will have moved off to the east with scattered showers near the eastern edges of our CWA Around daybreak Tuesday is when our precipitation chances return as the shortwave finally moves overhead and produces more chances for rain and maybe some snowflakes on the backend. As the cold front associated with the shortwave moves North to South early tomorrow, we will see another bout of precipitation. Initially the precipitation will remain all rain but during early morning as strong cold air occurs, we will see temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s. With these temperatures we could see a few flakes in the colder pockets and where we have stronger convection where evaporative cooling can enhance the cooling effect. As it stands right now, the Minnesota Arrowhead and South Shore areas look to have the best chance (50-60%) of seeing some snowflakes mix-in heading into the afternoon. By late afternoon, most of the precipitation will have moved out of our CWA with much cooler temperatures present with highs in the upper 30s (closer to the lake) to mid 40s (Inland).

Extended Range:

Wednesday will be on the cooler side with highs remaining in the 40s and 50s with persistent NW wind making it feel on the chillier side. Very dry soundings indicate the return of near- critical fire weather conditions across far northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin during the day. This cold, dry spell will be brief before we’ll see a quick warmup into the upper 50s/lower 60s on Thursday as winds return to a more southerly component, which will advect some moisture for slightly less dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR ceilings have returned to the Northland as cloud cover has scattered out, and VFR conditions will persist until tonight.
There is a possibility (20-40%) for MVFR fog development tonight at KDLH/KINL/KHIB and the Minnesota Arrowhead, with the highest potential at KDLH due to easterly winds off of Lake Superior. Rain with IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibility moves into the area from southwest to northeast starting early to mid Thursday morning, with these conditions continuing through the end of the TAF period. Winds increase out of the east on Thursday, with gusts to around 20 knots from late Thursday morning through the afternoon. KDLH and KBRD could see a few gusts to 25 knots Thursday afternoon, as well.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Westerly winds continue to weaken this evening, with calmer conditions expected overnight. Northeast winds strengthen through the day Thursday, with waves building in response. Peak gusts up to 25 knots and waves up to 5 to 7 feet could be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening at the head of the lake.
Elsewhere, expect winds and waves slightly less than that, but still breezy with gusts largely over 20 knots. Another round of Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Into Friday, expect winds to turn southwesterly and become very strong through the day Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

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