Tuesday, September22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ely, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:10PM Tuesday September 22, 2020 6:05 AM CDT (11:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:33PMMoonset 9:19PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ142 Expires:202009030645;;241005 Fzus73 Kdlh 030539 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 1239 Am Cdt Thu Sep 3 2020 Lsz140>143-147-162-030645- 1239 Am Cdt Thu Sep 3 2020
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... At 1238 am cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from 25 nm northwest of duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 60 knots. Locations impacted include... Beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, split rock bay, castle danger, sugar loaf cove, tofte safe harbor, twin points safe harbor, and tofte. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4704 9087 4703 9170 4714 9150 4758 9088 4773 9054 4783 9012
LSZ142


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ely, MN
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location: 47.91, -91.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 220940 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 440 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 440 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

High pressure was located over the Northland this morning as the remnants of a frontal boundary washed out over the region. Areas of fog were seen from the Brainerd Lakes area to the Iron Range and eastward into the US 53 corridor and Hayward areas in northwest Wisconsin. Fog may be dense at times but is expected to quickly clear up after sunrise. Otherwise, high pressure will bring mostly clear skies for today and tonight along with dry conditions. Highs today will be well above normal in the 70s and lower 80s with lows tonight in the 50s.

The area of high pressure will shift east on Wednesday as a trough moves into the Central and Northern Plains. The GFS is trying to set up a warm front across the Northland through the day bringing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms, but the ECMWF and GEM are not as pronounced with this feature and remain mainly dry through the afternoon. Have introduced some low end POPs for the afternoon hours but think the best chances will hold off until Wednesday evening/night as the trough moves through. Still, there will be around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE along with effective shear of around 40 knots in the vicinity of the warm front, so any storms that can get going during the afternoon hours may be on the strong side with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts being the primary threats. The SPC has outlined much of northeastern Minnesota and adjacent northwest Wisconsin in a Marginal Risk during this period and given the ingredients in place seems appropriate. Highs Wednesday will remain well above normal reaching into the 70s and lower 80s.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 440 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday evening and Wednesday night as a shortwave and surface cold front move through the region. Upper level winds are rather weak and won't do much to move the system through in a timely manner. As a result, showers and thunderstorms will remain possible into Thursday, mainly across northwest Wisconsin, as weak high pressure tries to build in from the west. Zonal flow aloft will then increase heading into the weekend as the jet stream migrates southward and a trough moves into the Northern Plains Friday night into Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms may develop ahead of a cold front Friday, mainly along the International Border, before better dynamics arrive Friday night into Saturday leading to better chances for showers and thunderstorms. Warm mid- level temperatures Friday afternoon look to keep much of the area capped. However, if something can develop, shear looks decent enough for a few strong storms Friday afternoon into Friday evening. As upper flow turns northwesterly in the wake of this system Sunday, models are in decent agreement quickly sliding another area of low pressure near or over the region for late Sunday into Monday. While there are still timing and spatial differences, the fact that the GFS/ECMWF/GEM all show this feature lends slightly higher confidence that there will be chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms somewhere in/near the Upper Midwest during this time.

Temperatures will remain above normal for much of the period with highs in the 60s and 70s. Thursday will be closer to normal in the wake of the cold front with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. Models are hinting at a cool down heading into next week as strong northwesterly flow brings cooler air to region. Lows through the period will be in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Mainly VFR conditions will be seen across the region through the period as high pressure moves overhead. This will lead to light winds and mainly clear skies. Some fog is possible this morning and HIB has already gone down to 6SM. Expecting additional fog development at DLH, BRD and HYR with some IFR and perhaps LIFR visibilities possible around sunrise, particularly at BRD and HYR. Any fog will lift by mid-morning leaving mostly sunny and less smoky skies than yesterday.

MARINE. Issued at 440 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

High pressure will bring mainly clear skies for today and tonight. Winds this morning from the southwest at 5 to 15 knots will diminish through the afternoon with variable winds at 5 knots or less for tonight. Light winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected for Wednesday starting from the southwest before swinging around to the northeast Wednesday evening and night and increasing to 5 to 15 knots with a few gusts to around 20 knots. Waves are expected to remain around 2 feet or less, but will begin building late Wednesday night with the northeasterly winds, especially around the Bayfield Peninsula. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with a few storms Wednesday afternoon and evening possibly being strong to severe with gusty winds and large hail as the primary threats.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 78 56 79 51 / 0 0 30 60 INL 75 53 72 49 / 0 0 30 30 BRD 80 55 80 54 / 0 0 30 50 HYR 80 55 80 55 / 0 0 20 60 ASX 80 54 82 52 / 0 0 40 60

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

SHORT TERM . BJH LONG TERM . BJH AVIATION . BJH MARINE . BJH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 53 mi26 min NW 9.9 G 18 60°F 1017.3 hPa
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 79 mi48 min SSW 6 G 8 59°F 61°F1017.5 hPa55°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 81 mi48 min 54°F 54°F1016.7 hPa54°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ely, Ely Municipal Airport, MN2 mi71 minN 07.00 miFair50°F50°F100%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KELO

Wind History from ELO (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW6S7SW6SW7SW8SW11SW10
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SW6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S4S4S3S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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