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LSZ142 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0034.000000t0000z-231005t2330z/ 609 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn...
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4751 8988 4712 9014 4710 9027 4709 9066 4710 9066 4723 9053 4771 9048 4781 9016 4786 8993 time...mot...loc 2308z 252deg 36kt 4766 9039 4735 9042 4726 9045 4713 9056

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 090536 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1136 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm system arrives late tonight into Saturday bringing with it accumulating snow and strong winds.

- Snowfall accumulations will generally be an inch or two at most for much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by Saturday night. The exception will be higher amounts for northern Douglas, Bayfield and Iron counties due to lake and terrain effects.

- Colder and drier conditions are expected through the start of the workweek with a warming trend late in the week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

The main focus in the near term will be an occluded low pressure system located just north of the Minnesota/Ontario Border. Early on Saturday, a cold front tied to the low pressure system will move through the region and will begin our period of active weather. Ahead of the front with temperatures near or above freezing, we could see some sprinkles/freezing drizzle with low level saturation and modest low level lift.

As the front passes, temperatures will quickly drop and sufficiently enough such that all precipitation will be snow by midday Saturday. Snowfall for most will end Saturday afternoon as the low pressure finally moves off to the east. The exception will be for the South Shore area where lake induced effects will linger. Snowfall totals for northeast Minnesota will generally be an inch or two at most due to limited lift and moisture within the dendritic growth zone.

For the areas downwind of Lake Superior, we should see enhancement due to the winds shifting out of the northwest and flowing off of the still warm lake Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. We’re expecting two regions to see some enhanced totals through Saturday night. The first and foremost will be the higher terrain snow belt of Iron County where a Winter Advisory is out for 4-6” of snow. It is here where we have the highest confidence that lake & terrain enhancement will be realized giving higher snowfall totals for this area. Ashland County could also see an upgrade in following forecast cycles but that’ll depend on getting higher confidence in where the heaviest snow will fall. The second region where we could see enhanced snowfall totals will be Northern Douglas and Bayfield counties where 2-4” of snow are likely in a gravity wave setup off of the North Shore. This gravity wave is evident within several HRRR members. A Winter Weather Advisory is not out of the question either for Douglas and Bayfield counties, especially if the gravity wave snowband becomes stationary, in addition to strong winds off the lake and blowing snow.

Regrading winds, a windy day is expected on Saturday with a tight pressure gradient and cold air advection in the wake of the front and departing low. The strongest winds are forecast for the North Shore, where katabatic and descending gravity wave effects could (40-60% chance) lead to wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. A Wind Advisory may be needed.

By midday Sunday most of the region will have dried out as a surface ridge overtakes the region. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s with winds out of the north keeping it slightly on the cooler side. Monday will be a few degrees warmer but a cold front will swing by later that afternoon dropping the highs on Tuesday into the lower 20s. Lows on each of these days will be in the single digits away from the lake to the teens closer to the lake. On Wednesday and onwards, a warming trend is likely as a significant ridge builds across the Canadian Plains. From this ridge we’ll see unseasonably warm temperatures return to the Northland once again with temperatures potentially being 10F above normal through the weekend with little precipitation expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 536 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Widespread stratus with ceilings ranging from VFR for KHYR, KDLH and KBRD to IFR for KINL will gradually deteriorate overnight as ceilings lower to a mix of IFR/MVFR. An area of precipitation over eastern North Dakota will slowly slide east across the area, reducing visibilities to IFR, locally LIFR, with initial rain/snow mix switching over to all snow. A strong cold front will move from west to east across the area late tonight through Saturday. Northwest winds will increase behind the front with gusts of 20-30 kts, locally higher near Lake Superior. The lower ceilings and visibilities are expected to linger through the end of the TAF period, though conditions should improve late in the period to MVFR.

MARINE
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all western Lake Superior nearshore waters through this evening for southwest winds with gusts to 30kts. Waves of 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, will also continue for the North Shore from Two Harbors to Grand Portage.

A strong cold front will move across western Lake Superior Saturday morning. This will turn winds to the northwest with gusts of 25 to 35 kts late Saturday morning through Saturday night. Small Craft Advisories will be needed. A Gale Watch has been issued for the North Shore nearshore waters were gusts in excess of 40 kts are possible (60-80 percent change).

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for LSZ140-141.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for LSZ140>144.

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