Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Stevens, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:20PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 3:14 PM PDT (22:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:04PMMoonset 9:15AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 303 Pm Pdt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Tonight..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Thu..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Thu night..SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely in the evening then a chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming sw. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
PZZ100 303 Pm Pdt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A strong front moving across area waters this afternoon and evening with with widespread gale and small craft conditions. Weather and seas will remain active through the weekend with a series of storm systems expected to move through region almost every day through Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Stevens, WA
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location: 48, -122.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 162207
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
306 pm pdt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis A frontal system will move through western washington
into this evening, brining more widespread rain and breezy to
locally windy conditions to the area. A wet and unsettled pattern
will continue throughout the remainder of the week and into next
week as a series of systems progresses through the region.

Short term today through Friday Current observations showing
winds starting to pick up within the area of the current wind
advisory... Most notably with bellingham reporting a wind gust of 40
mph... Which falls right on the lower threshold of the advisory.

Current radar shows much of the CWA in-between rain bands... With the
one associated with the front from last night and this morning east
of the cascade crest while the one associated with the incoming
front currently in position along the coast and over the northwest
portion of the olympic peninsula. In the immediate near term... All
this spells out that winds along the east side of the sound will see
wind speeds increase but timing still looks good for winds to begin
to diminish after 5 or 6 pm pdt. Speeds still generally breezy to
locally windy for most locations... Including the seattle metro
area... While the north interior looks good regarding its wind
advisory and with the timing looking consistent... Do not foresee a
need for that to be extended at this time.

While the change in the leaves is certainly an indicator of
fall... So too is the seemingly endless march of weather systems over
the pac nw... And current models remain in sync that W wa will have
that in spades as additional systems will push through the region
Thursday and again Friday, bringing additional rounds of breezy
conditions and widespread rain. Increasing swell along the coastal
areas of washington during the day Thursday with 18 to 20 foot swell
expected, will result hazardous surf conditions along the coastal
beaches of washington through at least Thursday evening. Temps will
cool a few degrees each day, with highs reaching mostly into the mid
50s by Friday. Ample cloud cover will keep the overnight lows in the
upper 40s to low 50s. Snow levels will stay above the passes on
Thursday, but could fall to near stevens pass levels by Friday. It
is worth mentioning that snowfall amounts over portions of the north
cascades in whatcom and skagit counties might see snow amounts that
would meet snow advisory criteria Friday as the forecast stands now.

Would like to see if this solution proves consistent... So opting to
not go with any headlines now. Should this amounts remain relatively
unaltered in future model runs... May need to consider headlines for
afternoon forecast package tomorrow. Smr

Long term Saturday through Tuesday Upper level low pressure
over the gulf of alaska and along the canadian coast will cycle a
series of upper level troughs over W wa in the extended... Keeping
wet weather in the forecast. The GFS persists in advertising a brief
break Saturday night into Sunday and it even seems like the ECMWF is
begrudgingly giving in. Neither model affords this break much in the
way of time as by late Sunday morning... The rain is back again with
yet another upper level trough passing through the area and another
system for Monday. Models diverge come Tuesday though... Similar to
when the GFS initially suggested the aforementioned break for
Saturday night. Current GFS solution is showing a brief break in the
action by late Tuesday morning and into the afternoon while the
ecmwf keeps conditions wet. Given how the ECMWF has come around to
the GFS solution regarding the Sunday night break... Opted to lean
into the drier GFS solution here as well... Even though well aware
this is all subject to change given that it occurs near the end of
the forecast period. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper
50s, while overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s
throughout the extended. Smr

Aviation WidespreadVFR conditions with a few isolated pockets of
MVFR ahead of the approaching front this afternoon. The front has
moved onto the coast as of 21z and will continue to work into the
interior over the next few hours. Have already seen increasing
southerlies ahead of the front with gusty low level winds
particularly over the north. Low level flow will veer to the
southwest and behind the front and remain breezy. Rain and MVFR to
ifr conditions will accompany the front followed by showers.

Southwesterly flow aloft will become westerly behind the front.

Ksea... The surface front will move into metro area around 00z.

Expect southerly winds 8 to 12 knots with gusts to 20 knots ahead of
the front. Ceilings will dip to just MVFR levels - 2500 to 3000 feet
with the front, then improve a bit behind the front as rain changes
to showers. Winds will also ease a bit and become southwesterly
behind the front. Showers and MVFR conditions will linger through
Thursday morning. Winds will likely pick up again Thursday morning 8
to 12 knots.

Hydrology A series of wet systems moving through the area today
into early next week will cause rivers to rise. As such, the
skokomish will likely need to be monitored although given how early
in the season it is... It may take some time for the river to react.

Otherwise... River flooding is unlikely over the next seven days.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Wind advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for admiralty inlet
area-san juan county-western skagit county-western whatcom
county.

High surf advisory from 9 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for central
coast-north coast.

Pz... Small craft advisory for rough bar until 5 pm pdt Thursday for
grays harbor bar.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Thursday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal
waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10
nm-coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater
10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape
shoalwater out 10 nm-east entrance u.S. Waters strait of
juan de fuca-northern inland waters including the san juan
islands.

Gale warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal
waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10
nm-coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater
10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape
shoalwater out 10 nm-east entrance u.S. Waters strait of
juan de fuca-northern inland waters including the san juan
islands.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for central
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Thursday for admiralty
inlet-puget sound and hood canal.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46120 23 mi41 min SSW 7.8 56°F 1003.6 hPa52°F
46125 29 mi38 min 21 56°F 1002.6 hPa51°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 30 mi74 min S 19 G 21 54°F 1005.9 hPa (-2.3)53°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 36 mi62 min E 22 G 30 55°F 51°F1003.4 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 38 mi104 min S 20 58°F 1004 hPa52°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 45 mi84 min SSE 36 G 43 55°F 1002 hPa (-2.3)49°F

Wind History for Seattle, Puget Sound, WA, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Everett Snohomish County, WA12 mi81 minS 14 G 2210.00 miOvercast56°F51°F84%1005.5 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA12 mi78 minSSE 15 G 2410.00 miOvercast58°F52°F81%1006.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAWO

Wind History from AWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5S6S8SE13SE12SE11SE12
G18
SE6E3NE4CalmE73S6NW5CalmSE5E12E10SE8S5CalmS15
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1 day agoNW7NW5CalmNW3NW6CalmCalmN3Calm--CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmSE9SE11SE9SE9
2 days agoW3NW6NW6CalmCalmW3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN4NW3NW4N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Everett, Washington
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Everett
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Wed -- 12:53 AM PDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:29 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM PDT     10.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:15 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:13 PM PDT     4.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:38 PM PDT     10.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:04 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.31.12.95.27.59.410.410.59.78.56.95.54.95.16.27.79.11010.29.37.75.53.3

Tide / Current Tables for President Point, 1.5 mile E of, Washington Current
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President Point
Click for MapFlood direction 203 true
Ebb direction 24 true

Wed -- 01:54 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:10 AM PDT     0.43 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:30 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:51 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:15 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:18 AM PDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:27 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:58 PM PDT     0.20 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:40 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:05 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:03 PM PDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.200.30.40.40.30.1-0-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.20.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.