Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Stevens, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 4:55PM Thursday January 23, 2020 6:27 PM PST (02:27 UTC) Moonrise 7:13AMMoonset 3:45PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 239 Pm Pst Thu Jan 23 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Fri..SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely in the morning then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the evening then rain likely after midnight.
Sat..SE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..S wind 20 to 30 kt rising to 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 239 Pm Pst Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A cold front will push inland overnight tonight. Active weather will continue into early next week as additional weather systems move across the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Stevens, WA
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location: 48, -122.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 232342 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 342 PM PST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. Active weather will continue over the next week as a series of weather systems move across the area. A few rivers flowing off the Cascades and Olympics may reach or approach flood stage into this weekend.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A wet and mild pattern persists across Western Washington today. A dissipating frontal system will shift onshore late today with steady rain turning over to showers on Friday as the trailing upper level trough swings onshore Snow levels are running high today. at or above 6000 feet . and will gradually fall to around 4000-4500 feet on Friday. The area should see a rather inconsequential break in the precipitation for a period Friday evening before another frontal system begins to spread precipitation across Western Washington on Saturday. This system looks relatively weak, but should provide a few hours of steady rainfall into midday Saturday. It's expected to quickly shift eastward for another short lapse in precipitation late Saturday before a stronger system arrives for the second half of the weekend. Throughout the short range period, landslides will be a concern with very saturated soils from above normal precipitation and snow melt in recent days.

Operational runs of both the GFS and Euro are in relatively good agreement at this time with a deepening surface low tracking across the offshore waters early Sunday and making landfall across the southern half of Vancouver Island. While not particularly strong, it will be enough for a wet and blustery Sunday with snow levels still running relatively high above some of the passes.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Deterministic model runs start to fall out of alignment with respect to timing and intensity of individual systems as we get into early next week. But a glance at the precipitation anomalies in the extended period from nearly every model ensemble mean suggests that a rather wet and mild pattern will be the rule for quite some time with landslides and river flooding a persistent threat. 27

AVIATION. A cold front will continue to make eastward progress through the overnight hours. Widespread rain is still ongoing in its vicinity across most of the terminals this afternoon. Ceilings across the area are generally MVFR, with some IFR mixed in. Visibilities are largely VFR and MVFR. Overall expect this trend to continue into the overnight hours, tho the rain will eventually become scattered. Confidence is low in the improvements to conditions through much of the day on Friday. With the rain becoming more scattered, feel there is some room for improvement back towards higher-end MVFR to perhaps low-end VFR late in the TAF cycle. Coverage of scattered shower activity through the period appears to be high enough to continue to warrant mention in the TAFs. Winds are generally S 8-12 kts with some gusts near 20kts.

KSEA . Widespread rain will become more scattered overnight and thru Friday. MVFR ceilings will carry through much of Friday, with the possibility of improvement to VFR late in the day. Confidence in this is low. Winds will remain out of the south 8-12 kts with a few gusts near 20kts possible Friday afternoon and evening.

Kovacik

MARINE. A cold front will continue to push inland across the area overnight tonight. Breezy winds will continue across most of the waters as this front passes through (the exception is expected to be the central and western Strait), where a small craft advisory will remain in place. In addition to the breezy winds overnight tonight and early Friday morning, high astronomical tide and lower pressure may result in minor tidal overflow in the Port Townsend and Friday Harbor areas. Refer to the CFWSEW product for further details on the timing of the high tide and for tidal anomalies. This threat should subside shortly after sunrise Friday morning.

Overall, for most of Friday and into Saturday, the weather pattern will remain active enough that winds may briefly subside below small craft advisory criteria, but in a short few hours may rise back up. For this reason have just opted to extend the SCA for most waters into either much of the day Friday or into Saturday morning.

In addition to winds, swells remain elevated in the 10-12ft range into Saturday morning. This will continue the small craft advisory for Grays Harbor bar into Saturday morning. A small craft advisory for hazardous seas has also been issued for the West Strait into Saturday morning as swells reside around 10 ft.

An active pattern will continue through the weekend and early next week, likely keeping the need for marine headlines for most waters in place. One weather system in particular to watch will be one currently forecast to move through the area Saturday night and Sunday. Higher-end gale force winds could materialize across the coastal waters, with gales possible across some of the interior waters as well.

Kovacik

HYDROLOGY. High snow level and continued rainfall over the mountains will continue to provide an active hydrologic scenario over W WA for much of the forecast period as rivers flowing off the Olympics and Cascades will see levels continue to rise. The Bogachiel River has been added to the flood warnings that are in effect. In addition, soil moisture conditions in most areas are at or above thresholds for increased threat of landslides and this rainfall event is enough to trigger them. This wet and active period will continue the enhanced threat for several days. The Flood Watch will remain in place for most areas as rivers within W WA likely to see continued rises. The Skokomish remains in flood stage and on its way to moderate flood stage this morning. It is expected to remain above flood levels at least into this weekend. Other W WA rivers may be flowing high through the rest of the weekend. Another period of warm and wet weather may renew the river flooding threat early next week. jbb

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Bellevue and Vicinity- Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties- East Puget Sound Lowlands-Everett and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County.

Flood Watch through late tonight for Admiralty Inlet Area- Central Coast-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics- Western Strait of Juan De Fuca.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM PST Friday for Admiralty Inlet Area-San Juan County.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Admiralty Inlet- Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 30 mi87 min SSE 15 G 16 53°F 1011.7 hPa (-0.8)52°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 36 mi63 min 53°F 47°F1009.5 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 38 mi57 min S 12 55°F 1009 hPa51°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 45 mi37 min SE 26 G 31 53°F 1008.3 hPa49°F

Wind History for Seattle, Puget Sound, WA, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Everett Snohomish County, WA12 mi34 minSSE 19 G 2810.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy52°F48°F86%1009.9 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA12 mi31 minSE 14 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F48°F86%1011.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAWO

Wind History from AWO (wind in knots)
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S15S10SE14S11SE12S13SE10SE13SE9E10E11E7E9E6S4NW4N4
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Tide / Current Tables for Everett, Washington
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Everett
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:08 AM PST     11.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:12 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:12 AM PST     7.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:51 PM PST     10.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:45 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:54 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:09 PM PST     -1.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.14.87.69.811.311.911.610.59.187.57.78.49.410.210.5108.66.641.3-0.7-1.6-1.1

Tide / Current Tables for President Point, 1.5 mile E of, Washington Current
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President Point
Click for MapFlood direction 203 true
Ebb direction 24 true

Thu -- 01:02 AM PST     0.57 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:12 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:12 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM PST     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:33 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:37 PM PST     0.12 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:51 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:47 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:55 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:43 PM PST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:08 PM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.50.40.20-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.10.1-0-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.3-0

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.