Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hat Island, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 4:17PM Friday December 13, 2019 9:48 PM PST (05:48 UTC) Moonrise 5:52PMMoonset 9:18AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 833 Pm Pst Fri Dec 13 2019
Tonight..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming variable to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain.
Sat..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain in the morning then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..S wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..SE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SE wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
PZZ100 833 Pm Pst Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A weak surface ridge will persist into the weekend for a transition to quieter conditions across area waters. Low level offshore flow is expected to develop early next week as surface ridging builds east of the cascades.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hat Island, WA
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location: 48, -122.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 140433 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 833 PM PST Fri Dec 13 2019

UPDATE. No changes were necessary to the forecast this evening, as weather conditions remain much quieter this evening than 24 hours ago. Water vapor loop reveals a shortwave trough in the vicinity of 130W and moving eastward. Enough lift has been supplied by this disturbance just to its east where some organized shower activity is taking place just offshore the Washington Coast. Hi-res model guidance does not pick up well on this area of precipitation, but given the weak nature of the shortwave trough, do not expect it to really hold together into the overnight hours. Elsewhere, local radar imagery continues to pick up some scattered rain shower activity across the lowlands and light snow shower activity across the Cascades.

Going forward tonight, do not expect much in the way of impactful weather. As the shortwave trough pushes east into western Washington, there should be sufficient lift for a continuation of scattered showers across the area. Shortwave then appears to get hung up over the area into the evening hours. Again, spotty showers likely to continue. Could see very light snow accumulation in the Cascades tonight-tomorrow night but impacts appear minimal.

Previous discussion included below.

Kovacik

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 228 PM PST Fri Dec 13 2019/

SYNOPSIS. Snow showers will gradually taper off in the Cascades through this evening. Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in the lowlands will continue into this evening before tapering off. A shortwave ridge will bring calmer weather to the region this weekend with a more active weather pattern potentially making a return mid to late next week.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Scattered rain and snow showers will gradually taper off across Western Washington through Saturday morning as a shortwave ridge builds off shore and pushes across the region. A northwesterly flow regime will set up in its wake, yielding generally quiet weather across the region through the remainder of the weekend. The upper level pattern will gradually amplify through the end of the period as a ridge builds off of the northwest coast. A cold airmass will remain in place, with model ensembles showing low to mid 30 low temperatures in the low lands on Sunday and Monday mornings. Highs are generally progged to run around normal for mid December.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Ensemble guidance is consistent in the aforementioned upper level shortwave ridge pushing across the Pacific Northwest as the first of a potential series of shortwave troughs ejects out of the Gulf of Alaska. This will bring a return of wet and active weather to western Washington by midweek. GEFS, EPS, and GEPS members show a healthy fetch of moisture ahead of second wave later next week into next weekend which would bring another round of rain and mountain snow to the region. Stay tuned to the latest forecast through the weekend into next week as details with these potential systems become clearer.

Pullin

AVIATION. Tricky TAF night in store for western Washington. Another evening of mixed ceilings will likely continue through the overnight hours. Expect the predominate category overnight to be MVFR but think conditions will largely improve to VFR Saturday afternoon. Another issue overnight will be fog. OLM currently down between 1/4-3/4 SM. Have this continuing into Saturday morning. Will also watch PWT and possibly SEA and PAE for fog development. A few spotty light rain showers may linger across most TAF sites thru the period as well. Winds will be under 10kts thru the period, with the dominant direction S/SW.

KSEA . Ceilings expected to drop to MVFR overnight, tho the possibility of a period of IFR and fog in the vicinity may occur. Conditions are expected to improve back to VFR Saturday. Spotty light rain showers likely in the vicinity thru most of the TAF period. Winds under 10kts from the S, likely light and variable at times.

Kovacik

MARINE. No changes were necessary to the marine forecast this evening. Winds remain light across all waters this evening and conditions will be similar through the weekend. Main forecast concern over the next 12-24 hours will be the hazardous seas across the coastal waters and western Strait as swells remain high. Previous forecast discussion highlights this well:

Small craft advisories for hazardous seas continue into Saturday for the coastal waters and west entrance to the strait. Seas will gradually diminish over the weekend. Otherwise, no wind related concerns are anticipated over area waters. Winds will become increasingly offshore early next week as surface high pressure gets more established east of the Cascades.

Kovacik/27

HYDROLOGY. There are no flooding concerns at this time as shower activity will remain scattered and light. Generally quiet conditions will prevail through the weekend and into early next week before the next storm systems affect the region by mid next week.

Pullin

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46120 18 mi25 min 44°F 1015.6 hPa41°F
46125 20 mi26 min 43°F 1016 hPa41°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 25 mi49 min E 1.9 G 1.9 45°F 1016.3 hPa (-0.7)42°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 28 mi55 min SSW 1 G 1.9 42°F 48°F1016.9 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 34 mi79 min Calm 42°F 1016 hPa42°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 38 mi29 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 45°F 1016.3 hPa41°F

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Everett Snohomish County, WA6 mi56 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F39°F92%1016.3 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA13 mi53 minN 010.00 miOvercast40°F39°F97%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAE

Wind History from PAE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S9S8S9SE9S9S9S9S7S7S7S8S9S7S8S8SW6SW7S4SW3CalmE4CalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Everett, Washington
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Everett
Click for Map
Sat -- 07:09 AM PST     12.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:12 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:28 PM PST     7.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:15 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:02 PM PST     10.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:56 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.1-0.91.54.47.51011.712.312.111.19.78.37.57.58.29.210.110.5108.76.541.4-0.8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Gamble Bay, Washington Current
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Port Gamble Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:12 AM PST     1.83 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:29 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:06 AM PST     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:13 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:57 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:51 PM PST     0.29 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:17 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:00 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:58 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:19 PM PST     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.11.61.81.71.40.90.3-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.300.20.30.2-0-0.3-0.6-0.9-1.1-1-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.