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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 945 Am Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Today..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..NW wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed night..Light wind becoming se to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves less than 1 ft becoming 1 ft or less after midnight.
Thu..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less.
Sat..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.

PZZ100 945 Am Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A surface ridge remains centered east of the cascades with low pressure offshore producing weak offshore flow. The ridge will weaken through Wednesday for light winds across area waters. A weak frontal system will arrive on Thursday followed by a more vigorous system on Friday. Areas of fog are expected Tuesday and Wednesday morning over the waters.

FXUS66 KSEW 281749 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 949 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
The upper ridge slides eastward today with split upper level flow on Wednesday. Dry weather, colder overnight temperatures, and widespread morning fog will remain during this timeframe. A weak front moves across Western Washington Thursday with a more active pattern Friday into next week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Upper level ridging will continue to slide southeastward today, but W WA will remain under its influence today...resulting in a morning scenario very similar to 24 hours ago: cold morning temperatures and scattered fog.
Location-wise, not much variance as satellite imagery and current obs show largest reductions in visibility occuring in the south Sound /as far north as the Seattle Metro area/, the SW interior /including Olympia and Chehalis/ as well as the far NE tip of the Olympic Peninsula and portions of western Whatcom county. While the geography is similar, it is worth noting that, at least from the perspective out the window here at the WFO, fog appears to be thicker than past couple of days. That said, likely will see a later burn off time...leaning more toward early afternoon for most locations. However, like yesterday, portions of the SW interior may not burn off at all and may need to monitor how that could potentially impact expected daytime highs in that area. Current Freezing Fog headlines look good to keep in place and while not currently planning on any extension, this will largely be determined by temperature trends over the next hour or so.

The upper ridge moves out of the area tonight, replaced by split flow aloft, placing WA between a weak ridge to the north and a shortwave trough to the south. Without any decisive weather system moving in just yet, dry and stable conditions will hold court, keeping the current weather pattern in place for one more day resulting in yet another overnight/morning period of cold temperatures and foggy conditions in the same areas as this morning.

A passing frontal system will be the herald of a change in the weather pattern to a far more active one. While not terribly impressive, it will be enough to bring widespread precip to the area, albeit mostly light. While not impacting daytime highs too much, will see a slight upward swing in overnight temps as most locations will see lows remain above the freezing mark Thursday night.

Inherited forecast largely on track and foresee no significant changes to the forecast this morning, aside from the potential fog headline extension mentioned above. 18

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
From Previous Discussion...The more active weather pattern continues through this period as multiple systems move across the Pacific Northwest for lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds. Troughing will provide a bit more of an influence Friday into Saturday allowing for cooler temperatures, and thus snow levels will be lower during this period.
Guidance suggests snow levels generally 2000-3000 feet for moderate to heavier snow possible over both Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass.
Ensemble guidance suggests ridging then begins to build across the Western US Sunday into early next week, for more of a southwest flow regime over Western Washington. NBM surface temperatures depicts this warming trend well, with highs into the low 50s early next week. However, uncertainty does exist as far as the extent of ridging into the Pacific Northwest with troughing well offshore.
This pattern would likely continue to support the active weather trend for additional breezy winds and potentially heavier rain early to middle of next week. JD

AVIATION
Upper level ridge axis continues to move to the east today with light south/southwest flow aloft. Moisture advection with this flow (especially with light offshore flow down near the surface) has created LIFR/IFR advection fog/freezing fog issues across the majority of terminals this morning in Puget Sound.
Heaviest of the fog has been from KSEA down to KCLS in the south Puget Sound and Southwest Interior region. Timeframe for the fog to clear is from 18Z-21Z (possible that some areas remain fogged in/cloudy for the remainder of the day, particularly down and around KOLM). For areas that are able to burn off the fog, VFR/MVFR ceilings will take over for the afternoon/evening, with more widespread low clouds/fog developing overnight for Wednesday morning. Winds will remain light and variable at the surface for the forecast period.

KSEA...Shallow advection fog/freezing fog (LIFR/IFR categories)
continues this morning with visibilities down to 1/4 mile. Timeframe for the fog to burn off is after 20-22Z, which will reveal most likely broken VFR ceilings this afternoon (lower chance that the clouds burn off entirely). Fog is expected Wednesday morning, and may form as early as 09Z Wednesday morning. Winds remain light and variable.

HPR

MARINE
Surface ridge remains centered east of the Cascades with low pressure offshore producing weak offshore flow. The ridge will weaken through Wednesday for light winds across area waters.
The light surface winds will remain conducive to widespread visibility restrictions in night and morning fog across interior waters. Due to ongoing fog remaining persistent this morning, have extended the dense fog advisory for the Puget Sound and Northern Inland waters through noon. A relatively weak frontal system will move into the coastal waters Thursday morning then push onshore in the afternoon. A more vigorous system is expected to follow on Friday with headlines likely for most of the area waters. A series of systems are then expected to follow for an extended period of active weather.

Coastal seas will remain below 10 feet through Thursday then build to 10+ feet Friday and likely remain hazardous for the foreseeable future.

27/HPR

HYDROLOGY
With the upcoming pattern change suggesting more rain in the forecast, area rivers are likely to see rises through the weekend. While extended models have had trouble at arriving at a consensus, making it difficult to get a grasp on the full potential impacts to the area, there is at least enough consistency to suggest that additional hydrologic products may be needed late in the weekend and for the start of next week. Unfortunately, the scope of these products is hard to nail down at this time. Forecasts will need to be monitored for the remainder of the week in the hopes that a singular solution will eventually emerge. 18

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for Bremerton and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Western Whatcom County.

PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

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Marysville
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Tue -- 06:33 AM PST     11.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:33 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:27 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:57 AM PST     6.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:16 PM PST     10.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:19 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:59 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:58 PM PST     -2.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marysville, Quilceda Creek, Washington, Tide feet

Port Gamble Bay
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Tue -- 02:22 AM PST     1.93 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:40 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:34 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:12 AM PST     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:28 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:52 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:54 PM PST     0.36 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:09 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:20 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:01 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:27 PM PST     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:23 PM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Gamble Bay, Washington Current, knots

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