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FXUS65 KMSO 292050 AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 150 PM MST Wed Nov 29 2023

DISCUSSION
Another day of stable and stagnant air will occur today and through much of Thursday ahead of our region's next weather system. This weather system will begin to push in from the west, bringing light precipitation Friday for central Idaho and portions of western Montana.

By late in the day Friday, a more robust plume of moisture will enter from the west and begin a multi-day snow producing storm for higher terrain. For central Idaho, elevations above 3000 feet will see upwards of 1 to 2 feet of new snow in the Clearwater Mountains and higher valleys of Clearwater and Idaho counties. For western Montana, elevations of 4000 feet and higher, especially along the Idaho/Montana border, will see 10 to 20 inches of new snow Friday evening through Sunday evening. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for portions of north central Idaho and western Montana as a result. Those traveling on I-90 over Lookout Pass should plan for difficult driving conditions due to snow and low visibility.
Similar conditions will also exist for Highway 12 over Lolo pass.

For valleys, the forecast is a lot trickier. Snow will begin to fall at all elevations Friday into Saturday, with the Camas Prairie, ID seeing a switch over to mixed precipitation Saturday.
For western Montana, valleys will remain all snow for most of Friday through Sunday morning, although with minimal accumulations expected due to downsloping effects. Sunday morning onward is when mixed precipitation will begin for valleys of western Montana, ranging from snow, rain, and/or freezing rain through Sunday evening. Snow levels during this time will rise to around or slightly above 4500 feet save for location around Highway 2 and points north, where levels will remain around 2000 feet through Sunday.

As a result of this dynamic forecast and its variable aspects, please stay tuned to further forecast updates for continued Watch, Warning, and/or Advisory headlines that could be issued, and any snow amount or mixed precipitation forecast changes.

Monday and Tuesday of next week continue to depict a ridging pattern over the Northern Rockies, with moisture from the Pacific Northwest streaming up and over the apex of the ridge. This will lead to the potential for continued precipitation and cloud cover, but timing and location of this will need to be ironed out in the coming days as further forecast details emerge.

AVIATION
High pressure will persist over the Northern Rockies the next 24 hours. As a result low stratus with ceilings below 1000 ft agl will persist at KGPI. Fog will continue at KMSO lowering visibilities to less than 1 mile at times, especially between 30/0900 and 30/1700z. Expect VFR conditions under clear skies at KBTM and KSMN.



MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Lower Clark Fork Region.

Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains
Kootenai/Cabinet Region
Lower Clark Fork Region
Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys
Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Northern Clearwater Mountains.

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