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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 203 Pm Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
Tonight..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Rain in the evening. Rain likely after midnight.
Wed..Light wind becoming nw to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain in the morning then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the evening then rain after midnight.
Thu..SE wind to 10 kt becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..SE wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sun..W wind 5 to 15 kt becoming N to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.

PZZ100 203 Pm Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A frontal system will stall over western washington tonight with generally light winds. Meanwhile, seas remain elevated with 15 to 20 foot swells for the coastal waters. A weaker system looks to move over the area waters Thursday before high pressure builds over the area Friday.

FXUS66 KSEW 052311 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 311 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
An atmospheric river will continue to impact the region with periods of moderate to heavy rain into Wednesday and river flooding into Thursday. Weather will shift toward more showery precipitation, cooler temperatures, and lowering snow levels Thursday, followed by a brief break on Friday. Active weather looks to return over the weekend with more rain, mountain snow and breezy to windy conditions for some areas.



SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The plume of deep moisture associated with the atmospheric river has generally stalled over western Washington this afternoon with steady moderate to heavy precipitation extending from the south Washington coast northeast into the Cascades of Snohomish County southward. Ensemble and high resolution guidance consistently show the area of enhanced precipitation remaining fairly static through this evening then sliding south slowly after midnight. This will allow rainfall rates to gradually decrease from north to south overnight. Even so, additional accumulations of as much as 2 inches are possible in the Skagit, Snohomish and King County Cascades, and 2 to 3 inches in the Pierce and Lewis County Cascades. Lowland areas South of Puget Sound could also see an additional 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall as they would be the last to eventually transition to lighter rain.

The axis of heavier precip will shift into Oregon by Wednesday morning. Ensembles including the HRRR continue to show a frontal wave lifting precipitation northward across the area beginning Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Snow levels will fall back at or below pass levels by early Thursday morning, which will support snow and a couple of inches at the passes Thursday morning. An upper trough passing through Thursday will also keep showers going through the day light rain possible over the lowlands and modest snowfall in the mountains. Hydrologic impacts - including flooding and elevated landslide risk will continue into Thursday. Please see the hydro section below for more details.

Showery precip will likely thin into Friday as a low amplitude shortwave ridging builds over the area, and providing a needed, albeit brief break in the weather later Friday

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Ensembles continue to show the shortwave ridging over the area late Friday night into early Saturday as very short lived - opening the door for a progressive frontal system to move into area later Saturday into early Sunday.
Ensembles generally support the idea of this system being rather progressive. Snow levels may rise somewhat above pass level during the day Saturday, but should return to pass levels Saturday night into Sunday. This system looks to bring potential for mountain snow an breezy to windy conditions for some areas. Ensembles now showing a cooling trend early next week with a 75% chance of near freezing temperatures over the northern portion of the area - including western Whatcom and Skagit Counties Tuesday morning.

AVIATION
A frontal system will remain nearly stationary over the interior and Cascades tonight and into Wednesday for light to moderate rain. The flow aloft is SW to W. Ceilings are mainly within IFR to MVFR range and this trend will continue. Winds are mostly light. Precipitation starts to taper off Wednesday afternoon as this system exits. Moisture from the next system will spread north and into the region after 06Z Thursday. 33

KSEA...Light to moderate rain through Wednesday morning with IFR to MVFR conditions. Winds become light and variable after 06Z tonight and turning more northerly into Wednesday morning. 33

MARINE
A frontal system will stall over western Washington tonight with generally light winds. Meanwhile, seas remain elevated with 15 to 20 foot swells for the Coastal Waters. Seas will subside Wednesday night. A weaker system looks to move over the area waters Thursday before high pressure builds over the area Friday. Another, strong, system will bring elevated winds to the Coastal Waters this weekend. 33

HYDROLOGY
Steady moderate to heavy rain will continue over the south eastern half of the area through this evening as the AR remains relatively stationary. Additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches are possible in the Skagit, Snohomish and King County Cascades, and 2 to 3 inches in the Pierce and Lewis County Cascades. Lowland areas South of Puget Sound could also see an additional 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall as the southern areas will remain within the heavier band of rainfall longer.

Flood warnings are already out for many of the rivers flowing off the Cascades and Olympics including several points that have reached major flood stage and one preliminary record level at the Stillaguamish at Arlington.

The heavy rain easing late tonight into Wednesday morning will allow the upper reaches of many of the rivers to start receding with flood crest working downstream to the lower reaches and mainstem of each river system. For some systems like the Chehalis - this may well extend into Friday.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for Admiralty Inlet Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-Central Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-San Juan County-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes South Central Cascades and Passes-Western Skagit County-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca- Western Whatcom County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

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Oak Bay, Admiralty Inlet, Washington, Tide feet

Port Townsend Canal
Click for MapFlood direction 150° true
Ebb direction 330° true

Tue -- 02:47 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:32 AM PST     2.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:02 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:10 PM PST     -2.42 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:10 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:18 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:56 PM PST     0.04 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:26 PM PST     1.85 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:37 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
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Port Townsend Canal, Washington Current, knots

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