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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 237 Pm Pst Fri Dec 8 2023
.gale warning in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening...
Tonight..SE wind to 10 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..SE wind 15 to 25 kt rising to 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning then rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..S wind 25 to 35 kt becoming se 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sun..SE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..Light wind becoming nw to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves less than 1 ft becoming 1 ft or less after midnight.
Mon..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..Light wind becoming E to 10 kt. Wind waves less than 1 ft becoming 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.

PZZ100 237 Pm Pst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A sub 990 mb surface low will bring a cold front across area waters on Saturday. Gales and small crafts are posted before winds are slated to ease overnight into Sunday. The flow weakens and turns offshore early next week with high pressure but another front looks to enter on Wednesday.

FXUS66 KSEW 082312 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 312 PM PST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
The next vigorous system will move into the region Saturday into Sunday and will bring moderate to heavy rain, mountain snow, and areas of gusty winds. A quieter period of weather is expected early next week as upper level ridging moves back into the region.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Weak convergence is ongoing in the central sound and Cascades where showers remain.
Additional, significant snowfall is not expected in the mountains and the Winter Weather Advisory has now expired. Onshore flow will weaken and turn offshore tonight as we prepare for the next incoming system. But with the flow turning offshore we will see cooler overnight lows in the 30s for most spots, with a few areas near freezing.

The forecast remains active this weekend as a strong Pacific frontal system moves in. This system brings another round of heavy rain and mountain snow and also strong south wind (mainly north coast and areas north of Whidbey Island). For the rain, we're expecting another 0.50-1.00" north of Seattle, 1-1.50" south of Seattle and 1-3" along the coast. The mountains will see a rain/snow mix but heavy accumulations may force sharp rises on the rivers once again with many rivers (Snohomish south) rising back into action stage to near minor flood. Up in the mountains, it'll be a wintery mix with snow Saturday afternoon/evening turning over to rain Sunday morning. Easterly winds may keep snow levels low in the passes with freezing rain possible at both Snoqualmie and Stevens pass Sunday morning. As for the winds, strongest south winds will be along the north coast, Admiralty Inlet area and San Juans - a Wind Advisory is in effect.

The frontal band will shift to our south on Sunday but we will still continue to see light rain across much of the area. Weak high pressure shifts inland on Monday but we're still left with abundant low level moisture and light sprinkles. The air mass will be mild, though, with temps in the 40s and 50s. 33

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure continues to build over the Pac NW early next week for a break in the weather.
A weak system may sneak inland toward midweek but overall rainfall amounts are light with just a few hundredths across the board. High pressure then rebuilds for the latter half of the week for another respite. Lows will be cooler and in the 30s with highs in the 40s moving into next weekend. 33

AVIATION
Northwest flow aloft as upper-level ridging resides upstream before becoming more westerly by tomorrow morning. Mostly MVFR present so far with localized LIFR over KPAE were lingering convergence is overhead. Improvement to VFR should be gradually met later this afternoon into the evening as high clouds increase ahead of the next disturbance. NBM v4.1 has a slight chance (25-30%) of MVFR ceilings developing over KPWT and KOLM between 08-14z Saturday with MVFR to IFR conditions becoming more widespread as rain spreads across the area between 16-19z. Breezy SE winds will pick up on Saturday around as well with gusts up to 30-35 kt for airfields such as KHQM and KBLI.

KSEA...A return to VFR this afternoon has been gradual but 22-00z appears to be the best window here in the near future. VFR throughout tonight with light low-level flow trending to the southeast this evening through Saturday morning. Then, widespread rainfall looks to take hold over the terminal by 18-19z Saturday with MVFR to possibly IFR conditions following soon after.

McMillian

MARINE
A strong low pressure system is moving into the NE Pacific for the weekend, draping a cold front over the area waters. The forecast remains on track for strong southerly winds reaching gale force beginning late tonight through Saturday for the coastal waters.
Gales are also likely Saturday for the East Entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Admiralty Inlet. Therefore, Gale Watches have been issued for the aforementioned locations. Winds will likely reach gale force into the Haro Strait, but have held off issuing a gale watch for the entire Northern Inland Waters zone. Winds will taper off Saturday night and remain benign into next week.

MARINE
Benign conditions tonight but a sub-990 mb surface low will track just north of Haida Gwaii Saturday morning as its associated cold front swipes across area waters throughout the day.
Gales are in the forecast over the coastal waters, eastern section of Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Northern Inland waters with SCA winds a possibility over Puget Sound. Winds will taper off Saturday night and remain below headline criteria into the beginning of next week.

Seas 7 to 9 ft tonight before rising to around 12 to 16 ft though the weekend where SCA for hazardous seas may be needed after winds subside. Seas will then decrease to 3 to 5 ft by Monday-Tuesday before the next system brings seas back above 10 ft by Thursday.

LH

HYDROLOGY
The Chehalis River at Porter remains in Minor Flood and is the last flood warning still in effect.

A brief lull in activity continues tonight before the next frontal system brings another round of rain and mountain snow. Snow levels start off between 1500 and 2000 ft Saturday then rise to near 7500 ft Saturday night. Forecast rainfall totals came in a little lower again today with mountain locations ranging from 2 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts.

Antecedant conditions of high soil moisture and high river levels are favorable for new flooding. The forecast amount of rain with higher snow level will drive significant river rises in a few locations but for most areas it will result in flooding. The most likely river to flood is the Skokomish where a flood watch is out for Mason County. There is a low chance of flooding in additional areas, mainly for the Snoqualmie River and the Chehalis River Basin.
There is a Flood Potential Outlook for those areas, for King, Thurston, Lewis, and Grays Harbor Counties.

JBB

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Admiralty Inlet Area-San Juan County.

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Olympics.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM PST Saturday for North Coast.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes South Central Cascades and Passes.

Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday for West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes.

PZ...Gale Warning from 6 AM to 11 PM PST Saturday for Admiralty Inlet- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning from 8 AM to 10 PM PST Saturday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM PST Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

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Marrowstone Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:09 AM PST     6.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:59 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 AM PST     4.90 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:12 PM PST     8.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:51 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:17 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:31 PM PST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marrowstone Point, Washington, Tide feet

Point Hudson
Click for MapFlood direction 115° true
Ebb direction 10° true

Fri -- 02:33 AM PST     -0.26 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:59 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:44 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:59 AM PST     0.79 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:09 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:51 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:45 PM PST     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:17 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:52 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:24 PM PST     1.28 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Hudson, 0.5 mile E of, Washington Current, knots

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