SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Moderate showers are moving onshore early this morning and will continue to do so throughout much of the day today. There have been some cloud flashes and isolated lightning just to the south of our CWA along the coast, and an embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled out namely in areas south of Puget Sound and along the coast. Any thunderstorms that happen to develop are expected to be pulsey and short lived.
Lightning and gusty winds would be the main associated hazards. That said, the probabilities are still low. Rainfall amounts through Thursday morning have gone up slightly, with up to an inch of precipitation likely in the southern Cascades and a quarter to half inch throughout much of Puget Sound. Widespread 60 degree temperatures are expected today, and with the continuation of a cooler and showery pattern, temperatures like this are expected to continue through the weekend. Given the nature of the front and the cooler airmass impacting the area, this front is going to provide snow to the upper elevations of Mount Rainier, but snow levels are still going to be higher than locations like Sunrise and Paradise.

A decrease in shower coverage is likely on Thursday as shortwave ridging moves in. Temperatures will be only slightly warmer and a bit closer to 70 degrees, with a similar expectation for Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Ensembles and long range height anomalies show persistent troughing over the Pacific Northwest through the middle of next week. A few showers are likely over the weekend, but won't be very widespread and perhaps more confined to the higher elevations. Extending out into the beginning of next week, there appears to be a more robust frontal system poised to move in late Monday or Tuesday, dropping in from the Gulf of Alaska. Timing of its arrival will vary as more details become clear in subsequent forecast packages.

Kristell



AVIATION
South to southwest flow aloft this morning will transition to northerly by late this afternoon as an upper trough axis shifts onshore then east of the Cascades by this evening. A mix of VFR and MVFR in scattered showers is expected across Western Washington this morning. Shower coverage will diminish by late this afternoon with ceilings lifting to low end VFR for most areas. Light surface flow and remnant low level moisture favors the redevelopment of low MVFR or IFR ceilings in stratus tonight into Thursday morning.

KSEA...A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings in scattered showers is expected this morning. Ceilings should be primarily low end VFR 22Z to 04Z before sinking back to low MVFR or IFR in stratus before daybreak on Thursday. Light S/SW surface winds will gradually veer to light northwesterly by late afternoon before backing to light southerly again tonight. 27



MARINE
A weak surface trough over the coastal waters will gradually fill as it shifts onshore this afternoon. Broad surface ridging centered well offshore then rebuilds through Thursday.
Another weak trough is expected to slide southward from the British Columbia coast later Friday into Saturday, but remains unlikely to generate any impacts at this time. 27



SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...None.