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PZZ132 East Entrance U.s. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- 206 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Tonight..W wind to 10 kt becoming nw after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain.
Mon..N wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. A slight chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..N wind to 10 kt becoming nw after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE wind 5 to 15 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Wed..SE wind 15 to 25 kt rising to 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..SW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming W to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..N wind to 10 kt becoming e. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.

PZZ100 206 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A surface ridge will build over the coastal waters on Monday then shift inland on Tuesday. A weakening front will reach the waters late Wednesday into Thursday.

FXUS66 KSEW 101702 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 902 AM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A frontal system will sag south into Oregon today.
Upper level trough moving through tonight keeping a chance of showers in the forecast. Weak upper level ridge building Monday will strengthen Tuesday then shift east Wednesday. Next system arriving late Wednesday could hang up over the area into Thursday morning. Weak upper level ridge building to the east Friday with a warm front brushing the area into Saturday.


SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
No changes were made to the forecast this morning. The previous discussion can be found below along with updated aviation and marine discussions:

The front will slowly sag south today eventually getting into Northern Oregon. No cold air cumulus on the satellite imagery so shower activity behind the front will be limited. Low levels of the air mass extremely moist so even with the steady rain ending do not expect much if any clearing. Highs will only be a couple of degrees warmer than the current temperatures, upper 40s to mid 50s. While snow levels over the South Cascades have risen to near 5500 feet the colder air has been slow to scour out of the Central and Northern Cascades with snow levels still near 3500 feet. Not much precipitation left for the Northern Cascades so will let the Winter Weather Advisory expire. Will also let it expire over the South Cascades with snow levels at least 5500 feet. In the Central Cascades a wintery mix continuing this morning. Snoqualmie pass has been reporting rain for the last few hours with temperatures below freezing. It has been snowing at Stevens Pass all night.
Another 1 to 5 inches of snow possible this morning along with the potential for freezing rain so will keep the winter storm warning going until 10 am for the Central Cascades.

Upper level trough moving through Western Washington overnight.
Not a whole lot with this feature but enough to keep a chance of showers in the forecast. Snow levels will lower back down to the higher passes by Monday morning but little snow is expected. Lows tonight in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Weak upper level ridge building over Western Washington Monday bringing about an end to the precipitation chances by late in the day. Plenty of low level moisture combined with not much subsidence with the weak ridge will keep skies mostly cloudy.
Highs near 50.

Ridge continuing to build Monday night helping skies clear a little. With the lower levels of the air mass so moist any clearing will result in fog forming so after with light surface gradients as well. Fog could be dense by Tuesday morning especially in the Southwest Interior. Lows Monday night in the mid to upper 30s.

Upper level ridge remaining over the area Tuesday. Light surface gradients continuing through the day. This could make the fog hard to clear out. For now will go with an afternoon breakout with a little increase in offshore flow putting highs in the mid to upper 40s. It is certainly possible the fog will hang around longer resulting in a cooler day.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Extended models and ensembles in good agreement with the next front arriving Wednesday night bringing another round of rain to the area. This system is nowhere near as moist as what we have seen recently so rainfall amounts will not be excessive. Large upper level trough digging south in the Eastern Pacific between 140 and 150W could stall the front over Western Washington Thursday. Upper level ridge building later Thursday into Friday in response to the deepening trough further to the west. It will be a race between how fast the ridge can build versus how far east a warm front moving out of the low gets towards Western Washington. The GFS ensembles favor the ridge building enough to shove the warm front north of the area. The ECMWF ensembles are split with about half of the solutions indicating rain Friday into Saturday. Model blend gives slight chance pops leaning towards the GFS solution. No reason to change this idea at this point but with the differing solutions confidence not very high for the Friday and Saturday forecast.

AVIATION
West to northwest flow aloft continuing over Western Washington today with a very moist low level air mass in place.
Weakening surface winds and plentiful low level moisture will contribute to widespread low MVFR or IFR ceilings today deteriorating to IFR/LIFR tonight and Monday morning.

KSEA...A mix of low MVFR and IFR ceilings today will lower to IFR and tempo LIFR tonight. Surface winds southerly 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable tonight. 27

MARINE
Winds across area waters will become light later today and tonight in the wake a cold front that will move onshore by afternoon. Small craft advisories over the coastal waters and west entrance to the strait will remain in place today for hazardous seas.

Surface high pressure will then build across the coastal waters on Monday, bringing calmer conditions and offshore flow to the region. The high pressure system will shift inland Tuesday, allowing for a weak frontal system to move into the area Wednesday into Thursday.

Seas 12-15 ft will gradually subside to 10 ft tonight and 5 to 7 ft through the day on Monday. Seas will then increase towards 10 ft again near midweek as another swell train makes it into the area. 14/27

HYDROLOGY
The Skokomish river is on the rise this morning and with the air mass over the Olympics warming up a flood warning for the river will be issued with this forecast package. Heavy rain continues over the higher elevations in the southern portion of the state. Paradise on Mount Rainier has reported 0.79 inches in the last three hours with a temperature of 32 degrees and no new snow accumulation. Will also go ahead and issue a flood watch for Lewis, Thurston and Grays Harbor county for the possibility of portions of the Chehalis and Newaukum rivers reaching flood stage this afternoon into Monday morning.

Still getting significant precipitation in the Central Washington Cascades but with the slower warm up keep the precipitation in the form of snow this morning will keep the counties with rivers flowing out of the Central Cascades out of the flood watch.

Hydrologically significant precipitation will be done with by later today over the entire area. The front later in the week will not cause much in the way of rises on the rivers.

Continued rainfall this morning along with recent precipitation earlier in the week will increase soil instability, leading to an increased threat of landslides. The threat of landslides, especially in the southern portion of the area, will continue into Monday. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Flood Watch from 1 PM PST this afternoon through late Monday night for Central Coast-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Olympics- Southwest Interior-West Slopes South Central Cascades and Passes.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

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Smith Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:50 AM PST     6.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:28 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM PST     5.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:38 PM PST     7.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:30 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:16 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:55 PM PST     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Smith Island, Washington, Tide feet

Smith Island
Click for MapFlood direction 90° true
Ebb direction 280° true

Sun -- 12:44 AM PST     0.83 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:29 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:28 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:15 AM PST     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:00 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:04 PM PST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:15 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:30 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:16 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:46 PM PST     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:06 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Smith Island, 1.4 miles SSW of, Washington Current, knots

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