Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Troy, MT
May 31, 2024 6:56 PM PDT (01:56 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 4:51 AM Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 1:59 AM Moonset 1:38 PM |
FXUS66 KOTX 312327 AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 427 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024
SYNOPSIS
A chance for light showers will return for the northern mountains on Saturday, but most locations will remain dry. A dynamic system pushes across the region late Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain, followed by gusty winds, and the potential for afternoon thunderstorms on Monday. Next week will see a warming and drying trend. Confidence is increasing for temperatures warming into the 80s and 90s.
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Sunday: High pressure will start to move out, opening the door for increasing precipitation chances for some as we head into this weekend. Tonight the ridge axis will shift from the Cascades to the northern Rockies. The afternoon cumulus build- ups will start dissipate with sunset; however, higher clouds will start to thicken from the west as the first shortwave system approaches; then later overnight into early Saturday those clouds will continue to thicken and lower. Tonight will be mostly dry, save for some limited shower chances that approach the northern Cascade crest toward daybreak.
Then Saturday the first shortwave system tracks over the region.
This relatively weak system will bring the best chance for precipitation near the Cascades, Canadian border counties and the ID Panhandle Mountain zones. However precipitation amounts look relatively light. The exception: there could be locally heavier downpours in the afternoon with any convectively enhanced showers and isolated embedded t-storms, mainly over the northern mountains and near the Camas Prairie. Elsewhere there is a limited risk for showers extending from the Wenatchee area east across the Waterville Plateau to the Spokane/CdA area and Palouse. However the potential for measurable precipitation according to the ensembles is 10-20 percent, so what falls outside of the mountains maybe no more than sprinkles. So the forecast leans toward that. Clouds decrease overnight into Sunday morning, with the threat of showers retreating further into the mountains and decreasing with brief and weak ridging ahead of the next system. Winds will increase on the backside of the trough later Saturday afternoon and evening, especially near the Cascades and western basin with gusts of 15-25 mph. Temperatures are forecast to be near seasonal norms.
Heading into Sunday the next system starts to move into the region, with the leading warm front starting to lift in through the day and the parent upper trough/cold front moving toward the Cascades later in the day. Clouds will thicken again through the day, with precipitation chances increasing throughout the region in the afternoon. How quickly that precipitation risk will increase carries some disagreement. The NBM paints about a 20-30% chance of measurable precipitation before 5PM Sunday (00Z Monday)
over the eastern third of WA and ID, with a 40-90% chance over central WA to the Cascades (that higher range is in the Cascades).
The EC/GFS/CMC ensembles show that probability averaging around 45-50% over much of the area, with 70-90% chances in the Cascades.
I increased PoPs above the NBM, showing the higher risk remaining in the Cascades and northern mountains and secondarily over central and northeast WA and the lowest risk over southeast WA and the lower ID Panhandle. However even then the precipitation amounts away from the Cascades look relatively light, as the heavier precipitation potential holds off until Sunday night into Monday. Expect breezy conditions with wind gusts near 15-20 mph, locally near 25-30 mph from the Okanogan Valley to the Upper Columbia Basin. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly below normal. /Solveig
Sunday night through Friday: An impactful period of weather is expected with widespread moderate to heavy precipitation Sunday night through Monday, breezy to gusty winds and thunderstorms Monday afternoon, breezy winds and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday, and much warmer temperatures possible Thursday through the weekend.
Sunday night through Monday: A strong shortwave and associated frontal system will move toward the Pacific Northwest. Models are in good agreement that this will be aided by a strong upper level jet streak and a robust late-season atmospheric river. Precipitation will spread east of the Cascades late Sunday afternoon within the warm sector of the approaching system, then pick up overnight Sunday into Monday morning as the stronger upper level dynamics move east of the Cascades. By late Monday morning and the afternoon, the focus will shift to widespread breezy to gusty winds and potential for thunderstorms across eastern Washington and north Idaho.
RAIN: Precipitation totals through Monday evening will be between 1 to 2 inches for the Cascade crest. East of the crest, strong westerly flow will work against significant accumulations, but could see between 0.05 to 0.25 inches with areas such as Moses Lake and Wenatchee showing a 65-75% chance of 0.10 inches of rain from 5 PM Sunday to 5 PM Monday. When increased to 0.25 inches this potential decreases to 25-30% for the Moses Lake area and 40% for Wenatchee.
Areas further north such as Omak and the Methow Valley are showing a 60% chance for 0.25 inches. As the system moves into far eastern Washington and north Idaho, precipitation amounts will re-enhance with around a 60-70% chance for above 0.50 inches of rain for Colville, Spokane, Pullman, and Lewiston. For 0.75 inches, this potential decreases to 20-30%. Across the valleys of Idaho Panhandle, there is nearly a 100% chance for over 0.50 inches, including Coeur d’Alene and Sandpoint. There is a 70% chance for over 0.75 inches at these locations and a 35% chance for over an inch.
WINDS: Expect winds to increase late Monday morning and peaking mid afternoon and subsiding through Monday evening. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are possible across the lee of the Cascades through the Columbia Basin, and into the Spokane area, the Palouse, and lower Asotin and Garfield counties. The best chances to see wind gusts above 45 mph will be from the Waterville Plateau and the upper Columbia Basin and the Blues with a 70-80 percent chance. Strong cross winds along highways will result in difficult travel for high profile vehicles and rough water on area lakes. Light weight objects could also be tossed around.
Tuesday through Friday: Another system will move across the region late Monday into Tuesday, but will be much weaker. Right now this looks to bring light precipitation across the Idaho Panhandle with breezy winds.
By Wednesday, a strong ridge will amplify over the Western US as an upper level low strengthens in the Gulf of Alaska. This will bring an extended period of very warm temperatures to the Inland Northwest, but there still remains a good amount of uncertainty on how warm temperatures will get depending on the strength of the ridge. Right now our forecast is showing widespread temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s by Friday. There are also a handful of ensembles (about 30%) between the GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles showing the ridge beginning to shift eastward late Thursday into Friday, allowing some elevated convection to move into the Inland Northwest. The other 70% keep the ridge and very warm temperatures in place through the weekend. /vmt
HYDROLOGY
There is a Hydrologic Statement in effect focusing on rises to stream, creeks, and some mainstem rivers. Base flows remain low across the region, and a good portion of the Inland Northwest is within a moderate drought (including the Cascades) and even a severe drought in the central portion of the Panhandle. Due to the ongoing drought conditions, the rain that is expected will largely be beneficial. With that said, the amount of water with a little bit of snow left to be melted on the highest elevations of the Cascades will result in a steep rise on the Stehekin River. Flooding is not anticipated at this time but will need to be monitored. Another potential impact will be for rock slides on steeper slopes in the Cascades and across the Idaho Panhandle.
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions with generally light winds expected for TAF sites over the next 24 hours. A shortwave system moves in later tonight into early Saturday, increasing upper level clouds this evening, then lowering and thickening clouds overnight into Saturday morning. Sites remaining VFR, but mountain obscuration near Cascades and north-central WA. Shower chances move into the Cascades and north-central WA mountains Saturday morning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions at TAF sites. Low confidence (less than 15%) for -shra in EAT, MWH, GEG Saturday morning with incoming wave.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 47 72 47 67 51 63 / 0 10 0 30 100 90 Coeur d'Alene 46 69 47 64 51 60 / 0 10 10 20 100 100 Pullman 45 70 47 66 51 60 / 0 10 0 20 90 100 Lewiston 51 79 54 72 58 70 / 0 10 0 10 90 100 Colville 42 69 42 66 45 63 / 0 30 20 40 100 100 Sandpoint 44 66 46 62 50 57 / 0 10 20 30 100 100 Kellogg 47 67 50 64 53 56 / 0 10 10 30 100 100 Moses Lake 52 78 48 70 52 70 / 0 10 0 30 80 50 Wenatchee 57 74 51 67 54 65 / 0 10 0 40 80 60 Omak 52 76 47 67 50 70 / 0 20 0 30 80 70
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 427 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024
SYNOPSIS
A chance for light showers will return for the northern mountains on Saturday, but most locations will remain dry. A dynamic system pushes across the region late Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain, followed by gusty winds, and the potential for afternoon thunderstorms on Monday. Next week will see a warming and drying trend. Confidence is increasing for temperatures warming into the 80s and 90s.
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Sunday: High pressure will start to move out, opening the door for increasing precipitation chances for some as we head into this weekend. Tonight the ridge axis will shift from the Cascades to the northern Rockies. The afternoon cumulus build- ups will start dissipate with sunset; however, higher clouds will start to thicken from the west as the first shortwave system approaches; then later overnight into early Saturday those clouds will continue to thicken and lower. Tonight will be mostly dry, save for some limited shower chances that approach the northern Cascade crest toward daybreak.
Then Saturday the first shortwave system tracks over the region.
This relatively weak system will bring the best chance for precipitation near the Cascades, Canadian border counties and the ID Panhandle Mountain zones. However precipitation amounts look relatively light. The exception: there could be locally heavier downpours in the afternoon with any convectively enhanced showers and isolated embedded t-storms, mainly over the northern mountains and near the Camas Prairie. Elsewhere there is a limited risk for showers extending from the Wenatchee area east across the Waterville Plateau to the Spokane/CdA area and Palouse. However the potential for measurable precipitation according to the ensembles is 10-20 percent, so what falls outside of the mountains maybe no more than sprinkles. So the forecast leans toward that. Clouds decrease overnight into Sunday morning, with the threat of showers retreating further into the mountains and decreasing with brief and weak ridging ahead of the next system. Winds will increase on the backside of the trough later Saturday afternoon and evening, especially near the Cascades and western basin with gusts of 15-25 mph. Temperatures are forecast to be near seasonal norms.
Heading into Sunday the next system starts to move into the region, with the leading warm front starting to lift in through the day and the parent upper trough/cold front moving toward the Cascades later in the day. Clouds will thicken again through the day, with precipitation chances increasing throughout the region in the afternoon. How quickly that precipitation risk will increase carries some disagreement. The NBM paints about a 20-30% chance of measurable precipitation before 5PM Sunday (00Z Monday)
over the eastern third of WA and ID, with a 40-90% chance over central WA to the Cascades (that higher range is in the Cascades).
The EC/GFS/CMC ensembles show that probability averaging around 45-50% over much of the area, with 70-90% chances in the Cascades.
I increased PoPs above the NBM, showing the higher risk remaining in the Cascades and northern mountains and secondarily over central and northeast WA and the lowest risk over southeast WA and the lower ID Panhandle. However even then the precipitation amounts away from the Cascades look relatively light, as the heavier precipitation potential holds off until Sunday night into Monday. Expect breezy conditions with wind gusts near 15-20 mph, locally near 25-30 mph from the Okanogan Valley to the Upper Columbia Basin. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly below normal. /Solveig
Sunday night through Friday: An impactful period of weather is expected with widespread moderate to heavy precipitation Sunday night through Monday, breezy to gusty winds and thunderstorms Monday afternoon, breezy winds and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday, and much warmer temperatures possible Thursday through the weekend.
Sunday night through Monday: A strong shortwave and associated frontal system will move toward the Pacific Northwest. Models are in good agreement that this will be aided by a strong upper level jet streak and a robust late-season atmospheric river. Precipitation will spread east of the Cascades late Sunday afternoon within the warm sector of the approaching system, then pick up overnight Sunday into Monday morning as the stronger upper level dynamics move east of the Cascades. By late Monday morning and the afternoon, the focus will shift to widespread breezy to gusty winds and potential for thunderstorms across eastern Washington and north Idaho.
RAIN: Precipitation totals through Monday evening will be between 1 to 2 inches for the Cascade crest. East of the crest, strong westerly flow will work against significant accumulations, but could see between 0.05 to 0.25 inches with areas such as Moses Lake and Wenatchee showing a 65-75% chance of 0.10 inches of rain from 5 PM Sunday to 5 PM Monday. When increased to 0.25 inches this potential decreases to 25-30% for the Moses Lake area and 40% for Wenatchee.
Areas further north such as Omak and the Methow Valley are showing a 60% chance for 0.25 inches. As the system moves into far eastern Washington and north Idaho, precipitation amounts will re-enhance with around a 60-70% chance for above 0.50 inches of rain for Colville, Spokane, Pullman, and Lewiston. For 0.75 inches, this potential decreases to 20-30%. Across the valleys of Idaho Panhandle, there is nearly a 100% chance for over 0.50 inches, including Coeur d’Alene and Sandpoint. There is a 70% chance for over 0.75 inches at these locations and a 35% chance for over an inch.
WINDS: Expect winds to increase late Monday morning and peaking mid afternoon and subsiding through Monday evening. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are possible across the lee of the Cascades through the Columbia Basin, and into the Spokane area, the Palouse, and lower Asotin and Garfield counties. The best chances to see wind gusts above 45 mph will be from the Waterville Plateau and the upper Columbia Basin and the Blues with a 70-80 percent chance. Strong cross winds along highways will result in difficult travel for high profile vehicles and rough water on area lakes. Light weight objects could also be tossed around.
Tuesday through Friday: Another system will move across the region late Monday into Tuesday, but will be much weaker. Right now this looks to bring light precipitation across the Idaho Panhandle with breezy winds.
By Wednesday, a strong ridge will amplify over the Western US as an upper level low strengthens in the Gulf of Alaska. This will bring an extended period of very warm temperatures to the Inland Northwest, but there still remains a good amount of uncertainty on how warm temperatures will get depending on the strength of the ridge. Right now our forecast is showing widespread temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s by Friday. There are also a handful of ensembles (about 30%) between the GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles showing the ridge beginning to shift eastward late Thursday into Friday, allowing some elevated convection to move into the Inland Northwest. The other 70% keep the ridge and very warm temperatures in place through the weekend. /vmt
HYDROLOGY
There is a Hydrologic Statement in effect focusing on rises to stream, creeks, and some mainstem rivers. Base flows remain low across the region, and a good portion of the Inland Northwest is within a moderate drought (including the Cascades) and even a severe drought in the central portion of the Panhandle. Due to the ongoing drought conditions, the rain that is expected will largely be beneficial. With that said, the amount of water with a little bit of snow left to be melted on the highest elevations of the Cascades will result in a steep rise on the Stehekin River. Flooding is not anticipated at this time but will need to be monitored. Another potential impact will be for rock slides on steeper slopes in the Cascades and across the Idaho Panhandle.
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions with generally light winds expected for TAF sites over the next 24 hours. A shortwave system moves in later tonight into early Saturday, increasing upper level clouds this evening, then lowering and thickening clouds overnight into Saturday morning. Sites remaining VFR, but mountain obscuration near Cascades and north-central WA. Shower chances move into the Cascades and north-central WA mountains Saturday morning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions at TAF sites. Low confidence (less than 15%) for -shra in EAT, MWH, GEG Saturday morning with incoming wave.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 47 72 47 67 51 63 / 0 10 0 30 100 90 Coeur d'Alene 46 69 47 64 51 60 / 0 10 10 20 100 100 Pullman 45 70 47 66 51 60 / 0 10 0 20 90 100 Lewiston 51 79 54 72 58 70 / 0 10 0 10 90 100 Colville 42 69 42 66 45 63 / 0 30 20 40 100 100 Sandpoint 44 66 46 62 50 57 / 0 10 20 30 100 100 Kellogg 47 67 50 64 53 56 / 0 10 10 30 100 100 Moses Lake 52 78 48 70 52 70 / 0 10 0 30 80 50 Wenatchee 57 74 51 67 54 65 / 0 10 0 40 80 60 Omak 52 76 47 67 50 70 / 0 20 0 30 80 70
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.
Spokane, WA,
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