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FXUS66 KOTX 160441 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 941 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
As the ridge pattern begins to break down, generally calm and benign conditions expected overnight. A cold front moves through the region on Thursday, bringing widespread windy conditions Thursday afternoon through Friday, mountain precipitation, and cooler temperatures. Showery, breezy and cool weather looks to continue into the weekend and even into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
Tonight through Friday: The region can expect similar conditions from the previous nights. Increasing high and mid level clouds expected as the ridge will begin to break down and an incoming cold front approaches. Lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s.

Thursday will start quiet through the morning. Winds will be slowly increasing through morning. Speeds expected to be in the low teens with gust into the 20s. Cold front passage is expected to be around in the mid afternoon. Winds will be strongest across the Columbia Basin. Winds are expected to be in the upper teens and low 20s. Gusts are reach into the 40s with localized speeds into the low 50s possible. Ensemble probability of at least 40 MPH is at least 80%. A wind advisory has been issued for portions of the Basin. Patchy blowing dust is possible in these areas.
Precip potential will be mainly over the mountain areas. Weak thunderstorm is possible over extreme Northeast Washington and North Idaho. It will be the warmest day through the weekend as temperatures dip behind the cold front. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

Friday is expected to similar to Thursday but lighter winds and cooler temperatures. Winds will be sustained in the teens and gusts into the 30s. Precip potential is still expected over the mountain areas. Precip amounts will generally have little to no accumulation. Highs will be in the 60s and low 70s. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC

Saturday and Sunday: If you want warm and dry weather for your weekend weather, we hate to disappoint, as we aren’t looking at that scenario. Rather we are looking at a very good chance of cool and unsettled forecast with the polar jet positioned near the OR/WA border on Saturday and perhaps even further south on Sunday.
The resultant air mass will be a typical springtime one with unstable conditions, especially during the afternoon/evening hours. 500 mb temperatures are expected to drop below -25c across the northern third of eastern WA and N ID on Saturday and across most of the region on Sunday. Meanwhile diurnal heating will result in convective showers and possible thunderstorms. The best chance of thunderstorms on Saturday will occur near the Canadian Border north of a line from Republic to Sandpoint. On Sunday we expect to see similar coverage with a slight southward expansion.
Meanwhile temperatures will drop considerably compared to recent readings. On Saturday we expect to see highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday.
Sundays highs area are about 7 to 11 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year. From a precipitation standpoint, totals will generally be light with most locations seeing 0.10” or less through the weekend. For Colville, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and the Silver Valley totals will likely range from 0.15-0.25”.
Somewhat breezy conditions are still expected on Saturday with gusts of 30-35 mph possible across the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Area, and Waterville Plateau.

Monday through Wednesday: Ensemble agreement is very good that we will remain on the cold side of the polar jet through this period. This suggests the weather will remain cool and unsettled.
The trend has been toward a cooler and wetter scenario. For the 3 day period totals should exceed 0.10” over just about all locations except the lower Columbia Basin. For Spokane/CdA totals will range from 0.15-0.30”. The heaviest amounts will occur over NE WA into N ID with amounts ranging from 0.25-0.45”. Thunderstorms will also be possible each afternoon and evening, again with the best chances near the Canadian border. High temperatures will remain cooler than normal for this time of year with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. fx

AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the upcoming period with bands mid to high level clouds streaming in from the northwest. Winds will generally be 10 kts or less overnight before an incoming front on Thursday. By 16z, gusty winds will develop at most TAF sites with gusts to 20-25kts. These will steadily increase by afternoon with gusts of 30-40kts. Local gusts to 45kt are possible across the western Columbia Basin Thursday afternoon. The gustiness will gradually decrease in the evening, while a 15% to 30% chance of showers develops across northeast WA and the ID Panhandle. /rfox.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. There is a low chance of blowing dust to reduce visibilities to under 6SM. There is also a low chance of light showers leading to MVFR conditions at the TAF sites Thursday evening. /rfox.

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 52 76 44 64 41 66 / 0 10 10 20 0 10 Coeur d'Alene 51 73 44 60 40 64 / 0 10 10 50 0 10 Pullman 50 72 43 59 39 64 / 0 0 10 20 0 0 Lewiston 55 82 52 67 44 74 / 0 0 10 10 0 0 Colville 49 75 38 64 35 64 / 10 20 20 40 0 40 Sandpoint 50 71 44 58 38 62 / 10 40 40 70 10 30 Kellogg 53 70 45 54 41 61 / 0 10 40 70 10 20 Moses Lake 52 80 44 69 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 56 75 46 64 45 67 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 Omak 52 77 42 70 41 69 / 0 10 10 0 0 10

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 10 PM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

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