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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 256 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Today..N wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Areas of drizzle in the morning. Areas of fog.
Tonight..N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Areas of fog and patchy drizzle after midnight.
Tue..E wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog and patchy drizzle in the morning.
Tue night..E wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..SE wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..SE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..NE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E wind to 10 kt becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.

PZZ100 256 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A surface ridge will build over the coastal waters today and then shift inland on Tuesday. A weakening front will move across the area waters Wednesday into Thursday. Another weak frontal system looks to move into the waters late in the week.

FXUS66 KSEW 111754 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 954 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Upper level trough moving south out of the area this morning. Upper level ridge building into the area this afternoon will strengthen tonight and Tuesday. The ridge will shift east Tuesday night and Wednesday. Next front arriving Wednesday night dissipating over the area Thursday morning. Another upper level ridge will build Thursday night into Friday with a warm front in the vicinity of the coast. The ridge will move east and the warm front will dissipate Saturday. Another system will approach from the southwest Sunday.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
No changes were made to the forecast this morning. The previous discussion can be found below along with updates to the aviation, marine, and hydrology sections:

Satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over Western Washington early this morning. Lower layer of the air mass is saturated with many locations reporting reduced visibility in fog and or light drizzle. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 40s.

A grey and soupy day in store for Western Washington today. Weak upper level trough moving south into Oregon this morning. Low layers of the air mass saturated so even a little lift from the weak trough will result in some morning drizzle or light showers. Surface gradients are light and will remain light through the day. This will keep the low level moisture intact making for a cloudy afternoon as well. With the cloud cover there will be little diurnal spread in the temperatures with highs only a few degrees warmer than the current temperatures, in the mid and upper 40s.

Weak upper level ridge building over the area tonight will strengthen a little Tuesday. Light flow in the lower levels continuing into Tuesday. Subsidence associated with the ridge will compress the low level moisture but not get rid of it. The weak December sun will be little help during the day keeping skies cloudy at least through the morning hours. Some sunbreaks possible Tuesday afternoon. Fog reforming overnight will continue through the morning hours before lifting midday. Lows tonight in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 40s with lower 50s possible along the coast.

Upper level ridge shifting east Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Increasing offshore flow Tuesday night into Wednesday will help dry out the lower layers just in time for the middle and high level cloud deck out ahead of the next front to move over the area. Rain reaching the coast Wednesday afternoon with a chance of rain inland. Lows Tuesday night in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs Wednesday near 50.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Models have been consistent the last few runs with the front moving into Western Washington Wednesday night. Large upper level trough digging south in the Eastern Pacific between 140-150W will stall the front over Western Washington Thursday morning with the front dissipating overhead. Models continue to show a race between an upper level ridge building just to the east and a warm front approaching the area from the southwest Friday. The GFS operational run and ensembles support the ridge winning pushing the warm front west and north of the Western Washington. The ECMWF is a different story with the ridge east enough to allow the warm front to brush the area Thursday night into Friday. ECMWF ensembles have about a half of the solutions with precipitation as far east as Seattle.
With the lack of consensus will keep at least a slight chance of rain in the forecast for Thursday night into Friday. Both the ridge and the warm front weakening over Western Washington Friday night into Saturday keeping a chance of rain in the forecast. For Sunday the ridge rebuilds while another front spinning out of the upper level low off Northern California approaches the area. Will go for a mostly dry forecast Sunday. Felton

AVIATION
A weak upper level trough will shift southeast over Western Washington today with a ridge building eastward in its wake.
Abundant low-level moisture with light ENE winds generally 5-8 kt or less will keep CIGs and VSBYs down today with mostly MVFR and lower conditions. Low-confidence in exact categorical changes, though brief improvement after 20Z is possible, which is reflected in the latest TAFs. Expect conditions to drop again with even more widespread fog and IFR/LIFR restrictions after 05Z this evening through at least 17Z Tuesday. KHQM is likely to remain MVFR with offshore winds 5 to 10 kt.

KSEA...A weak upper trough is skirting south over Western Washington today, with upper-level winds turning more northerly into the afternoon. Surface winds also north to north-northeast with brief gusts over 10 kt possible at times. IFR conditions through the rest of the morning should improve somewhat into this afternoon with MVFR probable (70% likelihood) from 22-02Z. Abundant low-level moisture and NE winds dropping off again tonight will favor another round of fog with possible LIFR CIGS/VSBYs (40% chance) through at least 17Z.

Davis/14

MARINE
Surface high pressure will build across the coastal waters today and then shift inland on Tuesday, allowing for offshore flow to develop across the region. A weak frontal system will then move across the area waters Wednesday into Thursday and may bring another round of headlines to the region. Another frontal system may move up into the local waters late in the week.

Seas across the coastal waters will continue to subside today from 7 to 9 ft to 4 to 6 ft by tonight. Seas look to hover at between 4 to 6 ft through Tuesday, but look to approach 10 to 11 ft again on Wednesday as the next swell train arrives. Seas then look to subside to 7 to 9 ft Friday and look to continue to subside through the weekend.

14

HYDROLOGY
Rivers will continue to recede through the first half of the week. Hydrologically significant rainfall not expected with the front Wednesday night.

No river flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...None.

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Swinomish Channel Entrance
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Mon -- 05:22 AM PST     8.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM PST     7.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:48 PM PST     8.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:58 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:14 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM PST     -1.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Swinomish Channel Entrance, Padilla Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Guemes Channel
Click for MapFlood direction 95° true
Ebb direction 255° true

Mon -- 01:13 AM PST     1.46 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:46 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:47 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:53 AM PST     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:03 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:15 PM PST     0.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:46 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:58 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:15 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:04 PM PST     -3.31 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:13 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
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Guemes Channel, West entrance of, Washington Current, knots

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