Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 12:41 PM   Moonset 2:04 AM

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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 224 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning - .
Tonight - SW wind 15 to 25 kt rising to 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. Fri - W wind 20 to 30 kt easing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Sat - SW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Sat night - W wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Sun - W wind to 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - SW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Mon - Light wind becoming sw to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.Tue - S wind to 10 kt becoming sw 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.

PZZ100 224 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - Broad surface ridging will remain centered well offshore with low pressure inland and will result in varying degrees of onshore flow for much of the forecast period. A passing frontal system will bring breezy winds to the area waters today and into Friday. High pressure well offshore looks to remain into early next week.

FXUS66 KSEW 162233 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 333 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Upper-level troughing through much of the upcoming weekend. With it, cooler and showery conditions are in store.
Brief ridging is expected to start the upcoming week before troughing rebounds through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As mentioned, upper- troughing is currently positioned over the region. At the surface, a frontal boundary is pushing towards western Washington out of BC. With it, increased onshore flow and spotty precipitation is being observed across the area. Light rain showers are in the forecast this evening along with convergence activity. Most of the precipitation will fall in higher elevations with aid of orographic enhancement. High-res guidance has the PSCZ focused mainly over Snohomish County before drifting southwards over King County overnight tonight. With troughing overhead, cooler temps aloft are expected with snow levels around 3,000-3,500 ft.
Overnight lows are to fall into the low to mid 40s.

Lingering showers are possible into Friday as we'll be on the backside of the upper-trough. Nevertheless, drier conditions are expected but cooler temps are to remain with highs slightly below average. Then, the next upper-low is on track to enter on Saturday with another round of showers. However, a drying will try to set up on later on Sunday as transient ridging moves overhead by the nighttime hours. Weekend highs are to top out in the mid 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows in the 40s.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Ridging to remain over the region on Monday but it won't be long lasting. Active weather looks to resume around the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe as another upper-low out of BC dives south into the region. Temperatures are to be around average for Monday but, cooler temps along with wet weather looks to pick back up as the week continues.

McMillian



AVIATION
West to northwesterly flow will persist aloft as an upper level trough from British Columbia continues to dig and slide across the Pacific Northwest. Surface flow generally remains southerly this afternoon, with gusty winds across the area ahead of an approaching frontal system. This system is also responsible for light shower activity on radar this afternoon. Overall, expect showers to remain light and rather spotty, except for a convergence zone that looks to develop and persist across portions of the central Sound tonight. Showers and the PSCZ look to dissipate overnight. Cigs across the area are generally a mixed bag of MVFR and VFR, with a few spots of IFR as well. Can expect a mix of high end MVFR, low end VFR cigs to persist into this evening (with a few spots of IFR cigs in showers), with gradual improvement towards VFR expected. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance indicates a 30-50 percent chance of cigs lowering back down to MVFR again by Friday morning, likely between 12-15Z.

KSEA...Conditions MVFR with gusty southerly winds to 25-30 kt ahead of an approaching frontal system. Expect PSCZ activity to remain north of the terminal this evening and an improvement towards low- end VFR conditions by tonight. Guidance showing a 30 percent chance of cigs lowering back down to MVFR between 12-15Z. Winds will remain breezy through tonight, but look to gradually ease through the Friday morning hours. 14

MARINE
An incoming frontal system will keep conditions breezy across the area waters into Friday. Small craft advisories will be in effect for all area waters as a result. Seas across the coastal waters will build towards 10 ft on Friday, likely resulting in an extension of small craft headlines for the coastal waters zones.
High pressure offshore looks to remain persistent into next week.
With lower pressure situated inland, expect onshore flow to persist through the forecast period. Another frontal system looks to move across the area waters early next week and may result in another round of headlines.

Seas currently hovering at 4-6 ft over the coastal waters this afternoon. Expect seas to build towards 9-12 ft on Friday before gradually subsiding back to 5-7 ft over the weekend and into early next week. 14



HYDROLOGY
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Friday for Admiralty Inlet-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Friday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

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Swinomish Channel Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:27 AM PDT     8.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:55 AM PDT     4.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:53 AM PDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:49 PM PDT     1.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Swinomish Channel Entrance, Padilla Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Guemes Channel
Click for MapFlood direction 95° true
Ebb direction 255° true

Thu -- 12:13 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:05 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:42 AM PDT     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:25 AM PDT     -0.31 knots Min Ebb
Thu -- 01:41 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:54 PM PDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:23 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:41 PM PDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Guemes Channel, West entrance of, Washington Current, knots

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