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FXUS63 KDLH 102349 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 549 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty snow showers and flurries for parts of NE MN into this evening.

- Gusty winds, light snow, and flurries return Monday into Tuesday.

- Seasonal temperatures until mid-week, then warmer again late this week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 338 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Rest of today - Monday morning:

Cloudy skies have persisted across the Northland throughout the day, so have had to nudge temperatures down a few degrees to account for this. Highs the low to mid-20s are expected for most areas. Some very light snow showers/flurries are persisting in the vicinity of International Falls and Hibbing, but should come to an end this evening, with little to no additional accumulations expected.

Lows tonight drop into the teens to upper single digits alongside calm to light winds, with some partial clearing of skies late tonight into the first part of Monday morning before clouds increase again ahead of an approaching cold front from our west.

Monday afternoon - Tuesday:

The aforementioned cold front will be moving west to east across the Northland Monday afternoon and evening as a low pressure system moves across far northeastern Ontario. Shortwave energy aloft works into northern Minnesota along and behind the front, resulting in some light snow showers across north-central and northeastern Minnesota and some flurries/spotty light snow showers for the rest of the Northland Monday afternoon into early Tuesday, lingering longest over portions of the South Shore due to some moisture feed from northwest winds off of Lake Superior. Snow accumulations are expected to be minimal, on the order of less than an inch across the Minnesota Arrowhead as well as the Bayfield Peninsula into northern Iron County. Little to no accumulations are expected elsewhere across the Northland.

Other impactful weather on Monday into Tuesday will be increasingly strong winds associated with the pressure gradient with and behind the front. Southwesterly winds begin to ramp up ahead of the front Monday afternoon, then turn northwesterly behind the front Monday evening and night with gusts to 20 to 35 mph. Even stronger gusts are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday evening with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph for most of the Northland, and gusts of 35 to 45 mph along the North Shore.

High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper-20s to mid-30s prior to the arrival of the front, with the colder airmass behind the front knocking highs back into the upper-teens to mid-20s on Tuesday. The coldest period of the week will be Tuesday night, when highs will be in the single digits and wind chills drop to -5F to 5F.

Wednesday - Next Weekend:

Ridging aloft builds into the central CONUS starting on Wednesday with the axis of the ridge over the Northland on Thursday. This combined with breezy southwesterly surface winds will bring much warmer air into our region once again. Look for highs back into the upper-20s to mid-30s on Wednesday, and low to mid-40s on Thursday. These Thursday temperatures will be about 15-20 degrees above average for this time of year, but not quite in record territory.

Global models then depict a weak cold front moving southeast across the Northland on Thursday night into Friday, though temperatures on Friday and Saturday should still remain much above normal, with highs in the mid-30s to low-40s. Some very light rain/snow mix and sprinkles/flurries are possible along and behind the front on Thursday night into Friday, with very little in the way of accumulations.

Another shortwave and frontal passage could move through the Northland again next Sunday, bringing additional low-end chances (10-20%) for light rain or snow depending on when the front moves through.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

IFR to low MVFR ceilings are expected to linger throughout tonight and through Monday morning. Models suggest skies clearing quickly at DLH in the late morning, but seemed a bit unrealistic, so brought ceilings to low VFR. Fog is possible at HIB, but left out of the TAF due to low confidence in temperatures lowering to the dewpoint ideal for fog formation.
Conditions should improve for all terminals throughout Monday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 338 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Quiet conditions and light and variable winds continue into early Monday morning before winds begin increasing out of the southwest Monday morning and afternoon ahead of a cold front moving into the Northland associated with a low pressure system that will be moving through northeastern Ontario. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior starting Monday afternoon as waves and gusts become hazardous to small vessels. Winds turn northwesterly after the cold front moves through, as gusts could reach gale-force, upwards of 30-40 knots as early as Monday evening and persist into Tuesday and Tuesday evening before weakening slightly.

Additional stronger wind gusts will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft on Wednesday and Thursday, as well.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM CST Monday for LSZ121- 140>148-150.
Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for LSZ121-145>148-150.
Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for LSZ140>144.

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