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FXUS63 KDLH 250847 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather today with some increased winds out of the south. Dry in a few portions across northern MN and NW WI with Min Rhs falling to near 25% this afternoon.

- Active weather pattern picks up tomorrow and carries us into next week. Two low pressure systems will bring widespread rain showers and some thunderstorms.



DISCUSSION
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Current conditions/Today:

The Northland finds itself caught between the exiting high pressure over the Great Lakes and the encroaching Colorado Low this morning.
This will lead to predominately southerly flow streaming across the region with gusts around 25 mph. Warm air advection will promote temperatures rising into the 60s. We could still see some dry spots with Min RHs in the mid 20s across far northern MN and NW WI.

Colorado Low Friday - Saturday:

The aforementioned Colorado Low begins its approach on Friday with winds turning to out of the east and increasing to gusts around 30 mph. Both the GEFS and Euro Low tracks remain consistent with the low sliding through southern MN and towards the great Lakes on a northeast trajectory. Onset times have wavered a bit between forecast packages with this one blending in some high res guidance for a delayed approach. Likely from having to overcome some dry air in the mid levels. Rain showers will become more widespread as we head into Friday evening. Some embedded thunderstorms remain possible as low instability can still be found aloft. While the Northland remains on the northern periphery of the storm for much of Friday and Friday night the warm sector does look to cross into NW WI Saturday morning which given some higher bulk shear values we could see some stronger storms develop briefly. The better dynamics still remain to our south. SPC does have a marginal risk out just barely clipping our eastern counties in WI.

Next Low Pressure Sunday - Monday:

A brief lull in the action Sunday morning before another low pressure treks out of the Plains and northeast towards the Great Lakes region. Cluster analysis remains in good agreement with high confidence of swinging an upper level trough through the area supporting this low. The low tracks however still have quite the spread to them spanning low centers from eastern ND to western portions of the UP. Surprisingly, the 00Z suite of deterministic guidance is in good agreement with taking the track south of Duluth and through NW WI. This would once again bring the warm sector through NW WI and could induce some stronger storms. But given the large spread in low tracks we have low confidence in where thunderstorms will be able to set up. Regardless of the track, rain showers will inundated the region once again with the system exiting Monday afternoon.

Rain Totals:

WPC does have our area highlighted in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall given our active pattern. A strong low level jet of 40-50 kts will set up a gulf connection beginning Friday. Our PW values remain above the 90th percentile through the weekend. Current guidance suggests an 1-1.5 inches of rain will be possible across the region with the heaviest rain falling Friday night. Areas that see embedded thunderstorms will have increased rain totals.

Extended Forecast:

The pattern remain active through next week as additional shortwaves move through the region carrying PoPs of 20-40% into the end of the week. We will also see a warming trend with highs ascending into the upper 60s and low 70s,

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions throughout the forecast. Satellite and observations this morning show some high clouds traversing in from the west.
Skies will begin to clear as we head into the latter morning hours.
Southerly winds will increase later today with gusts in excess of 20 kts. Tomorrow night we could see some low level wind shear impacting the terminals as a low pressure system advances towards the region.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Northeasterly winds today around 10-15 kts and a few gusts to around 20 kts in the afternoon. An active pattern to end the week and take us into early next week will see winds increasing on Friday. A prolonged period of strong winds hazardous to small vessels is expected through the weekend. A few gales will be possible on Sunday as well. Additionally, rain showers and some embedded thunderstorms will spread across the Lake Friday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

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