Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 9:04PM Thursday July 18, 2019 4:16 AM CDT (09:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:28PMMoonset 6:03AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 180547
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1247 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019

Update
Issued at 1247 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019
updated for the 06z aviation discussion.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 416 pm cdt Wed jul 17 2019
two rounds of showers and storms today, with a low threat for severe
storms and a conditional threat for heavy rain flash flooding. Hot
and humid again on Thursday with a low chance for a few isolated
storms.

On the synoptic scale a mid upper level shortwave ridge is over the
upper midwest and upper great lakes while a weak mid upper level
shortwave moves across central manitoba with at least a weak
reflection of the trough axis south across western minnesota. There
is enhanced area of southwest winds at mid to upper levels with
speeds around 50 knots at 500mb and and a 70 to 80 knot jet around
300 200mb over the northland this evening. At low levels a weak
surface low is over central manitoba with a broad warm frontal zone
extending south across western central minnesota. To the south, an
east-west oriented warm front marks the boundary between the already
humid air up north and the very rich gulf moisture enhanced airmass
across the southern and mid-mississippi river valley where
precipitable water values approach two inches.

Late this morning through the early after a line of showers and
storms associated with the north-south oriented warm front will
continue eastward into northeast minnesota, with a general weakening
trend as the front rotates a bit to become more northwest-to-
southeast oriented and lifts towards northwest ontario. It will
essentially be exiting the area of greatest instability, with
easterly flow present across northeast minnesota and adjacent areas
of northwest ontario aiding in stabilizing the low level air due to
influence from lake superior. This area of precipitation will also
lead to overcast skies for much of the northland today, which will
cause highs not to be as warm as past days, only in the upper 70s in
northeast minnesota to the low 80s in northwest wisconsin.

Late this afternoon and into tonight there is a chance for scattered
to widespread storms across east-central minnesota into northwest
wisconsin, but confidence is low in whether or not storms end up
forming this far north or if convection across central southern mn
ends up developing and limiting the instability for storms to
develop this far north. There are a few possible scenarios for how
storms might evolve today (including the possibility that there
could be few to no storms), but in general there should be enough
instability combined with surface heating behind this morning's
storm (based on clouds clearing out on visible satellite) to cause a
few diurnally driving storms to develop in west-central minnesota
this afternoon and track east towards central minnesota (brainerd
lakes region). There is also a possibility for storms to develop
further north and cause another round of storms to impact areas
north of the iron range into the minnesota arrowhead this
afternoon early evening, but this possibility seems low given the
low level stability driven by the easterly lake-influenced winds
across the arrowhead today. Still, a few elevated isolated storms
are at least possible. As any thunderstorms evolve into the evening
hours they will track east-southeast along the instability gradient.

With strong mid upper level winds and at least 1500 to 2000 j kg
mucape will be more than sufficient for a few strong to near severe
thunderstorms developing, with the greatest threat for hail damaging
winds occurring with storms in the late afternoon early evening.

Storm motions should be fairly progressive, but with along-frontal
motion and precipitable water values near two inches, very heavy
rainfall rates are likely which could lead lead to at least
localized flooding. The flood threat is certainly conditional on
storms actually developing, but there do seem to be strong signals
from even non-cams on the potential for very heavy rain rates, and
flash flooding will likely be the primary concern with these storms
for east-central mn into northwest wisconsin.

Late tonight storms exit to the south and large-scale subsidence
leads to clearing skies. Some fog is possible overnight, with lows
in the 60s, except across the mn arrowhead where lows will fall into
the mid 50s.

Without a strong cold front to clear out the low level moisture,
Thursday will another humid day with dew points in the 60s. South to
southwesterly flow develops at low levels bringing a return of well
above normal temperatures with highs in the mid to even upper 80s,
warmest across northwest wisconsin. Skies should be mostly sunny,
with residual low mid level moisture causing diurnally driven CU to
develop in some areas during the afternoon. There is a chance for
isolated showers and storms in the afternoon as well, and while
storms will be more of the isolated variety given the convective
inhibition (cin) expected to be present, 1000 to 2000 j kg sbcape
and 40 to 50 knots of deep layer shear (mainly in the form of
unidirectional speed shear) could lead to a strong to severe storm
or two, with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. Given the
conditional nature and likely isolated areal coverage of storms, the
severe weather risk is just marginal at this time but could
certainly be increased based on how storms evolve today tonight.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 416 pm cdt Wed jul 17 2019
much the same story as the past several shifts. Very warm
conditions are expected for Friday with highs in the upper 70s
along the north shore to the upper 80s and low 90s from pine
county east into northwest wisconsin. Heat indices will be in the
90 to 100 degree range in northwest wisconsin. As mentioned
yesterday, there are some concerns regarding the ability to warm
the surface with a baroclinic zone south of the forecast area
showers and storms may bubble and burble along the boundary.

Clouds and precipitation chances would work to keep the
temperatures and heat indices cooler. However, if storms are
inhibited or develop late afternoon, these very warm conditions
will likely be realized. A more zonal flow pattern develops for
Saturday and Sunday. A few scattered thunderstorms are possible
Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will generally trend
cooler with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. A slight bit
cooler for Sunday due to cloud cover and showers with highs
middle to upper 80s.

Northwesterly flow pattern develops for early next week as a high
amplitude upper ridge builds over the rockies. Storms chances
return to the picture for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1247 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019
thunderstorms continued over far northern minnesota but were east
of the TAF sites. There is good agreement among most of the models
that showers storms are unlikely at the TAF sites for a few more
hours. However, it's still possible storms showers moving through
south dakota north dakota may hold together and affect kbrd around
11z-12z for a couple hour period. Confidence in widespread MVFR ifr
ceilings forming tonight is low. There will be fog as khyr has
already dropped to 1.75sm and a period of ifr ceilings and lower
vsbys will be possible across parts of the northland.

There will chances for more showers storms Thursday Thursday night
and timing will be refined in later updates. At this time,
coverage of the storms looks to be low.

Marine
Issued at 416 pm cdt Wed jul 17 2019
northeast winds will continue into this evening and will be
strongest in the southwest arm of lake superior where sustained
winds of 15 to 20 knots are expected with gusts a few knots
higher yet again. Small craft advisory will remain in effect.

Thunderstorms are possible late this evening and overnight, which
may create wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots. Winds veer southwesterly
for Thursday with sustained winds of 5 to 15 knots.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 62 84 65 85 20 10 10 30
inl 62 83 60 80 80 30 30 10
brd 67 86 68 85 10 10 20 20
hyr 68 86 66 90 10 20 20 30
asx 64 87 66 89 10 20 10 30

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Le
short term... Jjm
long term... Huyck
aviation... Melde
marine... Jjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi21 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist61°F60°F97%1003.1 hPa

Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E5E7E6E9SE10SE8S4SE5SE7SE10SE11SE11
G14
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G21
NW4SW6CalmCalmSW3SW4CalmCalm
1 day agoNW4CalmCalmW5NW7W3NW9NW8NW5NW8W6W55NE7E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3SE5
2 days agoCalmCalm345345W7S7SW66
G17
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NW7W7W8W6W5W3W4W5W3

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.