Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:48AM||Sunset 4:22PM||Friday December 13, 2019 3:29 PM CST (21:29 UTC)||Moonrise 5:49PM||Moonset 9:20AM||Illumination 95%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KDLH 131820 AAD AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Duluth MN 1220 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
UPDATE. Issued at 1220 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Updated for the 18Z Aviation discussion.
SHORT TERM. (Today through Saturday) Issued at 443 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Weak high pressure was in place over the Upper Midwest early this morning. A warm front stretched from western North Dakota into central South Dakota with light snow showers observed ahead of the warm front across the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota. Additionally, a band of lake effect snow was seen along the North Shore of Lake Superior in the vicinity of Silver Bay. As the warm front moves eastward today into tonight, snow showers are expected to spread across the Northland with lake effect/lake-enhanced snows continuing along the North Shore.
High pressure will shift east of the region this morning as a shortwave/surface low moves across the Dakotas. As this feature moves into northern Minnesota for this afternoon and evening, snow showers will once again spread across the Northland. This system is definitely weaker than the one that just moved through and there isn't a lot to get excited about synoptically. There is some marginal theta-e advection in the lower levels and a low- magnitude Thaler QG bullseye passes to our north, but for the most part, the system is rather benign with only around an inch or two of accumulation expected for much of the region before snow tapers off late tonight into Saturday morning. However, slightly higher QPF amounts are seen along and north of the Iron Range, which coincides with the slightly better synoptic ingredients. As such, areas from far eastern Koochiching County into northern St. Louis and northern Lake and Cook Counties may see 2 to 4 inches of accumulation and have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for this threat. The bigger story with this system will be the lake effect /lake-enhancement along the North Shore. Between the signals in the synoptic models and the clear bands on the hi-res CAMs, it is looking good for it to occur. The lake remains mainly open with surface temps around 40F and 850mb temps will be in the -10 to -13C range, which leads to fairly decent lake effect conditions.Couple that with the orographic uplift along the North Shore and someone will see quite a bit of snow with this setup. The question remains as to where thanks to the uncertainty on where the banding will set up. The most likely area will be from around Silver Bay to Lutsen and just west of Grand Marais and few miles inland from the lake along the terrain ridge. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches are expected from Two Harbors to the Grand Portage area with higher amounts to 7 to 10 inches in that Silver Bay to near Grand Marais stretch. In areas where banding sets up, would not be surprised to see locally heavier amounts. The Advisory has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for the two lake shore zones as confidence has increased in heavier snow in this area. Highs today will be in the middle teens to middle 20s with lows tonight in the in the teens in eastern areas with single digits to the west.
Light snow will then linger into Saturday as the system departs to the east. There may be some areas of freezing drizzle on the backside of the snow from Pine County into northwest Wisconsin starting during the early morning hours to around daybreak as we lose ice aloft. Snow showers will then become confined to the Minnesota Arrowhead into much of northwest Wisconsin for Saturday afternoon. As winds turn northerly in the wake of the departing low, lake effect snow showers will affect the South Shore of Lake Superior, mainly the Bayfield Peninsula area and the snowbelt in Iron County. These areas may see around 1 to 3 inches of accumulation through the day with less than an inch elsewhere. It is not looking like an overly great lake effect setup at this point with light winds and model differences in the direction. Colder 850mb temps will be working in, so that will be beneficial to the lake effect processes. An advisory may be needed for this activity, but confidence remains lower on this so will wait on that. Temperatures Saturday won't warm much as colder air filters in with northwest flow aloft and high pressure building in from the west. Highs will only be in the teens and lower 20s east to single digits west.
LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 443 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
A ridge of high pressure slides across the area Saturday night and Sunday. The north flow around the ridge should produce continuing lake effect snow all along the South Shore, but with clearing skies over most of Minnesota. Overnight low temperatures over the western forecast area will drop into the teens below zero where skies clear, but around zero where the lake effect clouds and precipitation of northwest Wisconsin. The ridge will also keep temperatures from rising very far on Sunday, and have kept highs in the single digits to around 10 above.
A shortwave moves across Ontario on Sunday night and Monday, which may bring some small chances for snow showers along the Canadian border. However, it does not appear as if there is enough moisture with it, and have mostly removed pops in this time range until we have clearer signals for precipitation, plus a better idea of timing. The lake effect snow showers should shut off Sunday morning as winds turn around to the southwest Sunday morning. Behind this shortwave we get another shortwave Monday night and Tuesday, also limited by moisture and have once again left pops out of the area as the wave passes by. Have stayed fairly conservative on temperatures, sticking fairly close to model blended guidance through Tuesday.
Another ridge of high pressure slides across the area on Tuesday night and early Wednesday, producing yet another round of lake effect snow and clearing skies over Minnesota. Overnight lows once again drop into the teens below zero.
Yet another shortwave moves across the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night, bringing a chance of snow showers to the area. Highs on Wednesday ahead of the wave should warm to between 5 and 15 above. Dry conditions return again for Thursday, as it appears we should be in between systems.
AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Snow will continue this afternoon for all terminals, bringing visibilities down to MVFR and occasionally IFR. Ceilings will generally be MVFR this afternoon with light winds. Low pressure continues to move east overnight, causing snow to gradually end around or just after midnight tonight. Visibilities will improve to VFR, though ceilings will likely remain MVFR to occasionally IFR through Saturday morning with lingering low level moisture. High pressure will begin to move in on Saturday, which will bring clearing skies and VFR conditions through the morning. Wind speeds will increase, and there could be some gusts around 15 knots from the north to northwest.
MARINE. Issued at 1019 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
A surface low will move east near western Lake Superior today, bringing some light snowfall to the region. Lake effect snow will continue along the North Shore and open waters of Lake Superior today, mainly northeast of Two Harbors. As the low moves east, east to southeasterly winds will decrease over western Lake Superior, while remaining blustery through the day and into this evening along the North Shore northeast of Two Harbors. A small craft advisory remains in effect through 10 PM for gusts approaching 25 knots and wave heights as high as 5 feet. Winds will become northwesterly on Saturday as low pressure moves east and high pressure takes its place. A tightening pressure gradient will increase wind speeds. There may be some gusts approaching 25 knots on the northern and southern shores of Lake Superior, which may be hazardous to small craft Saturday and Saturday evening. As high pressure moves in, winds will become lighter Saturday night into Sunday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed, especially for the South Shore as waves build.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 20 10 12 -10 / 90 80 20 10 INL 20 3 6 -14 / 90 80 20 0 BRD 17 5 8 -14 / 90 50 10 0 HYR 22 14 18 -6 / 90 80 30 20 ASX 25 18 21 3 / 80 80 60 50
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for MNZ011-012.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for MNZ020-021.
LS . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>143.
UPDATE . JS SHORT TERM . BJH LONG TERM . LE AVIATION . JS MARINE . JS
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|Falls International Airport, MN||0 mi||35 min||NE 6||4.00 mi||Light Snow||18°F||12°F||81%||1011.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KINL
Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||W||Calm||S||SE||SE||E||E||E||SE||E||E||E||E||E||NE||NE||NE|
|2 days ago||SW|
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