Monday, October14, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:28PM Monday October 14, 2019 8:59 PM CDT (01:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:16PMMoonset 7:03AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 142359
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
659 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019

Issued at 659 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019
updated for the 00z aviation discussion.

Short term (this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 328 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019
upper level and surface ridging covered the forecast area this
afternoon. Drier air over the southern half of the region has led
to some clearing. Clouds were hanging on over the north where
more moisture was available and an embedded upper level impulse
was moving through and helping to generate these clouds. Even with
the cloud cover, temps have warmed into the 40s, except along the
borderland and into the arrowhead where upper 30s were found at

The ridging prevails through this evening. Late tonight, a closed
upper low arrives in the red river valley of the north, while its
surface low drifts into southern minnesota. A fairly potent
vorticity maxima will reach western minnesota overnight. Showers
will develop spread into the southern portion of the region before
09z 4am, then continue north to the international border. Colder
temps just off the surface will lead to some snow mixing in with
the rain north of mn highway 210. No snow accumulation tonight.

The closed upper low moves into wisconsin Tuesday, while the surface
low reaches green bay by late afternoon. The aforementioned vort max
intensifies as it moves just ahead of the closed low. Cold air
advection on the backside of the upper surface lows will work
together with the vort MAX to keep the precipitation going,
especially over the southern half of the area nearest the low track.

The mixed precip types will continue until noon, then switch to all
rain. In northwest wisconisn Tuesday afternoon, some colder air
coming off of lake superior, will lead to a rain snow mix in the
high terrain areas through the rest of the afternoon. A light
accumulation of snow is possible from southern bayfield east through
central and southern iron counties, but less than one inch.

Tuesday night finds the closed low reaching lower michigan, while
the surface low moves to the eastern great lakes region. Additional
impulses will work over the area as well. The showers will persist
through the evening, ending from west to east overnight as high
pressure approaches. The rain snow mix will switch to all rain as
boundary layer temps remain above freezing and is supported by
latest short term models.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 314 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019
high pressure will be the main weather feature from Wednesday
through early Friday morning across the upper midwest. A period
of quiet weather is expected. Temperatures will trend warmer
Thursday and Friday, and remain warm through the weekend.

An upper-level ridge is forecast to build across the region on
Wednesday and will amplify further on Thursday. Northwest flow in
the low-levels will support a chance of lake effect rain or snow
showers in the northwest wisconsin snowbelt areas Wednesday
morning. A weak shortwave trough and associated vorticity
advection will move across minnesota and wisconsin Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. With limited moisture, expect a
slight increase in cloud cover to mark its passage. Precipitation
is unlikely with the passing shortwave trough. Winds in the low-
levels will turn westerly Wednesday afternoon and southwesterly
for Thursday ushering in a surge of 850 mb warm air advection.

The strongest warm air advection is expected Thursday night into
Friday morning before the next shortwave trough moves through the
region Friday afternoon and evening. Have raised low temps
Thursday and Friday morning and high temps during the afternoon
hours both days. Temperatures will be near normal on Thursday
with readings in the middle 40s in the arrowhead to the middle
50s in central and north-central minnesota as well as much of
northwest wisconsin. Friday will trend above normal with highs in
the low 50s to low 60s.

The shortwave trough of Friday and Saturday morning will bring a
weak cool front through the region. There is a chance of light
rain with the system. Conditions dry out again for Saturday
afternoon through Sunday evening in response to weak ridging
aloft. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal
through the weekend. A more organized storm system will take
shape in the central plains Sunday afternoon and evening and will
bring a chance of precipitation to the northland by late Sunday
night. The system will continue to affect the region Monday and
Tuesday of next week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 659 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019
initialVFR conditions are expected to continue through
approximately 10z tonight, followed by rapidly deteriorating
conditions as an incoming upper level low pressure system moves
across central minnesota and southern wisconsin. Conditions should
lower to MVFR for most sites by 14z, then to ifr by 18z for a few
hours before improving again to MVFR for at least kinl, khib, and
kbrd before the end of the TAF period.

Issued at 328 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019
a ridge of high pressure stretched from northern illinois to
southern manitoba this afternoon. The pressure gradient will
continue to relax tonight as the ridge axis slides farther east.

Winds will remain westerly over the lake during the evening
hours. The ridge will push eastward tonight while an area of low
pressure rapidly develops over the central plains. That area of
low pressure will strengthen as it moves toward northern
wisconsin and upper michigan by late Tuesday afternoon. The
pressure gradient over western lake superior will tighten in
response to the passing surface low. Winds will back
northeasterly early Tuesday morning and eventually back northerly
to northwesterly by Tuesday night. Wind speeds and gusts will
increase in response to the tighter pressure gradient. Sustained
winds of 10 to 25 knots are expected with gusts as high as 30
knots possible from late-morning through late evening Tuesday.

The waters along the south shore will experience the strongest
winds and a small craft advisory is now in effect. There is a
small risk of gale-force gusts, especially late morning through
the afternoon hours Tuesday. The surface low will push farther
east into southern ontario by Wednesday morning. The pressure
gradient over lake superior will relax and wind speeds and gusts
will diminish.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 36 41 36 44 60 100 10 0
inl 36 42 36 44 40 50 20 0
brd 36 42 37 45 60 80 10 0
hyr 37 41 36 46 80 100 40 0
asx 35 42 39 48 70 100 60 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm cdt Tuesday for lsz121-

Small craft advisory from 10 am Tuesday to 4 am cdt Wednesday
for lsz148.

Update... Le
short term... Gsf
long term... Huyck
aviation... Le
marine... Huyck

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi64 minN 010.00 miOvercast39°F36°F89%1013.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KINL

Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW6NW5W7W4W5W6W8W7W9
2 days agoSE8SE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.