Saturday, August24, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:09PM Saturday August 24, 2019 6:58 AM CDT (11:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:42PMMoonset 2:41PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 241143
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
643 am cdt Sat aug 24 2019

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 326 am cdt Sat aug 24 2019
upper level surface ridging covered the forecast area at 07z, with
some pockets of fog forming. A mainly clear sky was found with some
cirrus moving through the northern portion of the area, while some
clouds around 5k feet were forming over the st. Croix river valley
and west to east central minnesota. Expect a few more clouds to
develop spread northward this morning, with some clearing possible
late this morning as mixing begins.

The ridging drifts east today allowing for a southerly flow aloft,
but only neutral to weak warm air advection. Gusty winds will affect
the western half of the region by this afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens up from an approaching system in the northern
plains. MAX temps will reach into the upper 60s to upper 70s.

The surface ridging remains over northwest wisconsin tonight, while
the northern plains system begins to move a bit closer. Dry air will
continue to be entrenched over northwest wisconsin, as well as the
arrowhead, into the central part of the forecast area. Limited
moisture will begin to move into the rest of the area. Some gusty
winds are still possible tonight as the pressure gradient remains
over the region. Some cool min temps are possible again with the dry
air hanging on with upper 40s in north central wisconsin, to the
upper 50s near the brainerd lakes.

The aforementioned ridging remains over the eastern two thirds of
the forecast area on Sunday. Meanwhile, the northern plains system
becomes a large scale system as upper level trofs begin to move
through the rockies into the plains. Elongated low pressure will
extend from northern manitoba to the central plains. The pressure
gradient remains as moisture advects into the area, but primarily
above 850mb. Models have been too aggressive with the onset of rain
into the western forecast area. Have dialed back on the
pops weather QPF per the latest deterministic guidance, which keeps
much of the region dry until Sunday afternoon, and mainly from the
brainerd lakes north to the borderland. Thermodynamic profiles are
very weak and have left out the mention of thunder. MAX temps should
reach the 70s, with some upper 60s over the tip of the arrowhead.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 326 am cdt Sat aug 24 2019
the upper trough and cold front will move further east toward the
northland Sunday night and forcing will be on the increase leading
to widespread showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the western
half of the area. The instability forecast isn't very high Sunday
night, generally 100-500 j kg of MUCAPE with the highest values over
our far western cwa. Pwat values will increase to around 1.5 inches.

The shear CAPE values would suggest low chances for severe storms
Sunday night but forcing is strong and the namnest is forecasting a
line of storms into northern minnesota late Sunday night and there
could be a wind threat with those storms if better instability
materializes. Showers and storms will spread east across the rest of
the area on Monday as the upper trough and cold front move over the
northland. Better instability is forecast to develop Monday along
with deep layer shear of 25 to 35 knots. We do expect widespread
clouds, especially along and ahead of the cold front, so we're not
real confident how unstable it will become and think the threat for
severe storms is low. We have total rainfall values from Saturday
night through early Monday evening from around 0.75 of an inch to
around 1.5 inches.

The upper trough will remain over the northland Tuesday with chances
for more showers and a few thunderstorms. It will be a cool day with
highs in the lower to mid sixties over far northern minnesota, to
around seventy over northwest wisconsin.

As the upper trough moves east Tuesday night into Wednesday, the
chances for showers will diminish. Cool temperatures will prevail
both Tuesday and Wednesday with highs from the lower sixties to
around seventy.

Differences among the models magnify Thursday into Friday. The GFS is
much quicker moving another shortwave and cold front through the
region Thursday where the ECMWF has a front moving through late
Thursday night into Friday. Widespread rain is not expected with the
front but there will be at least a low chance. Highs Thursday and
Friday will be from 65 to 70 for most areas.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 643 am cdt Sat aug 24 2019
there was patchy fog and ifr ceilings, mainly around lake
superior, early this morning and most of it should lift between
12-14z. LowVFR ceilings were also occurring this morning and we
expect a cumulus field to form by late morning early afternoon. A
mix of scattered to broken ceilings from 3000-5000 feet are
expected into the afternoon before becoming scattered to clear
this evening. Gusty southerly winds will occur today and enough
wind is expected to occur tonight to limit fog formation. The rap
shows another area of lowVFR clouds moving through the northland
later tonight.

Issued at 326 am cdt Sat aug 24 2019
another day of easterly winds are expected today as high pressure
over northern lake superior moves east. The highest winds, from 10
to around 15 knots, will occur from silver bay to the twin PORTS to
sand island. The wind will turn southerly tonight but back again to
east to southeast on Sunday from 5 to 15 knots. Dry conditions are
expected today into Sunday. Winds will turn more southerly Sunday
night into Monday as a center of low pressure moves from the
northern plains into northwest ontario. Wind speeds will be 15 knots
or less. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late Sunday
night through Monday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 74 54 75 57 0 0 0 60
inl 79 56 74 57 0 0 30 90
brd 78 57 74 60 0 0 20 80
hyr 75 52 75 56 0 0 0 30
asx 78 53 78 57 0 0 0 30

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Gsf
long term... Melde
aviation... Melde
marine... Melde

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi64 minSE 610.00 miOvercast53°F48°F86%1023.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KINL

Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalm--SE5SE6SE8SE8SE8SE666SE7S4Calm3SE4--SE5----S4--SE5SE4SE6
1 day ago--E3E4E53CalmN5E4NE66N6E4E4E3Calm----Calm--SE3----CalmSE3
2 days ago----W4NW11NW8W12NW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.