Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Birch Bay, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over Western Washington this morning. Doppler radar has light rain from about Olympia northward. Temperatures were on the mild side, with a couple degrees either side of 50, at 3 am/10z.

Atmospheric river aimed at Western Washington through Thursday.
Like early this morning the river could shift a little north at times leaving portions of the Southwest Interior dry but for the most part it is going to be a wet three days. IVT values not that high, mostly 500 kg/m/s or less. Satellite imagery not impressive with a ragged looking river off the coast this morning. Above the surface 850 mb winds are not very strong so there will not be much in the way of orographic enhancement in the mountains. Just a steady stream of moisture moving into the area the next three days. Snow levels are elevated and will remain that way through period ranging from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 9000 to 10000 feet in the south. See hydro section for a more detailed discussion on rainfall amounts.

In addition to the rain it will be breezy at times over the Northwest Interior with the frontal boundary stalled just to the north.

High temperatures will be a couple of degrees above normal, in the mid to upper 50s. With the clouds and rain lows will be mild, near 50 degrees. It's possible some record high minimums could be set today and tomorrow. Records for the 19th are from the record setting heat wave in 2019 and will not be broken.
Felton

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Models in good agreement with the river remaining over Western Washington through Friday. Current solutions indicating Thursday night and Friday to be the juiciest part of this event with IVT values in the 800-1000 kg/m/s range. River moves out of the area Friday night with zonal flow aloft over the weekend.
Operational runs are dry but ensembles still have a few wet solutions. Without any ridging will have to keep at least slight chance pops in the forecast Saturday and Sunday. Good agreement in the models again Monday with a wet system arriving just beyond the forecast period. Felton

AVIATION
Strong westerly flow aloft will continue into tonight across Western Washington as a moist air mass continues to funnel into the region ahead of a stalled frontal boundary over British Columbia.
Widespread MVFR ceilings in rain will develop today with occasional pockets of IFR. IFR or low MVFR conditions in rain will continue into tonight.

KSEA...Ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR in increasing rain early this morning. These conditions will continue throughout the day with ceilings likely lowering to IFR at times by late this afternoon or evening. Surface winds southerly 9 to 14 knots with gusts of 20 knots at times into this afternoon. 27

MARINE
Southerly flow will continue across the waters into Wednesday as a frontal boundary remains stalled near the north end of Vancouver Island. This will continue to produce small craft advisory conditions across area waters. The front will eventually slide southeastward toward the end of the week for somewhat stronger winds with possible gales for portions of the coastal waters and strait.

Coastal seas will hover near 10 feet through Wednesday before settling into the 7 to 9 foot range for the remainder of the week.

27

HYDROLOGY
Atmospheric river aimed at Western Washington through Friday.
Elevated snow levels in the mountains means the precipitation will mostly be in the form of rain in the higher elevations.
Rainfall totals today through Friday night for the Olympics and the Cascades in the 4 to 7 inch range, along the coast in the 3 to 5 inch range and over the interior in the 1 to 2.5 inch range. Higher amounts all locations over the northern sections.
Hard to pick out a time with heavier precipitation the next few days. Right now it looks pretty steady through Friday.

The combination of steady rain, elevated snow levels and low level snow melt will put pressure on the rivers into the weekend. Rivers from King county northward have the best chance to reach flood stage outside of the flood prone Skokomish River in Mason county. A flood watch will remain in effect for King, Snohomish, Skagit, Whatcom and Mason county. There is a chance the rivers in the watch area could reach flood stage as early as Wednesday evening but flooding is more likely Thursday into the early part of the weekend.

The snow melt factor will make river forecasts tricky in the next few days. Snow melt accounts for an additional 10 to 15 percent of the total water in the system. This added variable could enhance the possible flooding later in the week.

Record daily rain of 0.99 inches Monday pushed the Bellingham March rainfall total to 3.54 inches. Normal rainfall for the entire month of March in Bellingham is 3.36 inches. The rain today will likely put Seattle and Olympia over the monthly March normals as well. Going into today the March rain total for Seattle was 3.97 inches. March monthly normal is 4.17 inches. At Olympia the current March total is 5.61 inches. Normal for the entire month is 5.68 inches. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon for Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties- Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties- Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area.

Flood Watch from this afternoon through Friday afternoon for Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.