Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Birch Bay, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 4:15PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 2:57 AM PST (10:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:12PMMoonset 7:12AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 247 Am Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
.gale warning in effect from 1 pm pst this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..SE wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..SE wind 30 to 40 kt becoming S 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
Thu..S wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely in the morning then rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..SE wind to 10 kt becoming ne. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 247 Am Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A vigorous frontal system will move through the area later today and tonight. A trough will cross the area on Thursday. Onshore flow Thursday night will ease Friday. A weather disturbance will push onshore south of the area over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Birch Bay, WA
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location: 48.75, -122.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 110538 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 938 PM PST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS . A weak front is pushing across the Cascades this evening, with lingering light rain and mountain snow showers. A brief break is expected Wednesday morning before the next, much stronger system moves into the area late Wednesday through early Friday. This system will bring heavy snow to the Cascades, particularly above 3500 to 4000 feet. Active weather will continue into next week.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/. Not much change needed to the forecast for tonight as today's front continues to advance eastward across the Cascades, with some lingering showers in the post-frontal air mass. Snow levels have been slightly lower than expected, with snow observed around Snoqualmie Pass, so trended the forecast to reflect this. Otherwise, showers will linger in the higher terrain overnight, but generally come to an end elsewhere outside of perhaps some light drizzle out of the low stratus deck. Remainder of the previous short term discussion remains valid and follows. Cullen

Attention then turns to the next system that will impact the region Wednesday into early Friday. This system will bring much more precipitation to the region, along with breezy conditions. The headlines are as follows:

* Lowland Rainfall: Most lowland areas will see 0.50-1.25 inches of rainfall, with higher amounts of 1.5-2.00 inches along the coast.

* Mountain Precipitation: The mountains will generally see 1.5-2.5 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation, with locally higher amounts around 3.0-3.5 inches.

* Snow levels: Snow levels will generally begin between 4000-5000 feet, then lower to 2500-3500 feet late Thursday night into Friday morning. This means that Stevens Pass will likely experience significantly more snowfall than Snoqualmie Pass. * Snow Amounts: Accumulations generally 3-6 inches below 3500 feet (again, mainly early Friday), 1-2 feet between 3500-4500 feet, and 2-4 feet above 4500 feet. (A Winter Storm Watch was issued for the Cascades)

* Gusty Winds: Breezy southerly winds are expected with this system with gusts generally 20-30 MPH. Stronger winds with gusts 35-45 MPH will be possible across and near the coastal waters, through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and in the north interior (waters near and north of Whidbey Island).

The heaviest and most widespread precipitation is likely to occur Wednesday evening/night, with precipitation becoming more showering in nature Thursday. In fact, there will exist a slight chance of thunderstorms along the coast and southwest WA Thursday afternoon and potentially again Friday as somewhat cooler air moves in aloft. -Wolcott-

LONG TERM /FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/. As we move into Friday afternoon through Saturday, precipitation chances will begin to diminish. That said, the pattern is messy and the door will be open for a weak system to brush the area over the weekend, so I wouldn't bet on a completely dry forecast.

Looking out further, there is good ensemble agreement in the continuation of an active pattern with the development of a mean trough just off the PNW coast. This will not only keep the door open for more energy to move through the area, but also sets up a more favorable pattern for wetter and warmer than average mid- December conditions. This matches well with the latest CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day guidance. -Wolcott-

AVIATION . Today's front is currently advancing through the Cascades, with some showers lingering in the moist, post-frontal air mass. Expect fairly widespread low stratus persisting across much of the region overnight, with some improvement early Wednesday. However, any improvement will be short-lived, as conditions deteriorate again with steady rain and lower ceilings in conjunction with the front Wednesday afternoon and into the evening.

KSEA . Low stratus will likely maintain mostly IFR/LIFR conditions overnight. An improving trend toward MVFR possible through the morning, but this improvement looks short-lived as the next front arrives by late afternoon for lowering ceilings and reduced visibility in steadier rain. Cullen

MARINE . A stronger frontal system approaches the coastal waters late tonight and early Wednesday, before crossing the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. A gale warning is up for the coastal waters and the east entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern inland waters have a good chance for gales Wednesday afternoon or evening as well. Surface pressure gradient increases a bit on Thursday as a trough crosses the waters. The next disturbance moves onshore well south of the region over the weekend. Meanwhile, a large west swell will arrive on Thursday, building seas into the 17-20 ft range over the coastal waters.

HYDROLOGY . A wet storm system will impact the region Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Given precipitation amounts and snow levels in the 4000-5000 foot range - most rivers are not expected to approach flood stage. There is some concern that the Skokomish River in Mason County could approach flood stage. We will continue to monitor this situation. -Wolcott/Bower-

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Gale Warning from 3 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 PM PST Thursday for Admiralty Inlet.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 11 mi57 min 1018 hPa (-0.7)
CPMW1 11 mi63 min ENE 6 G 8 42°F
CPNW1 11 mi105 min E 5.1 G 7 42°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 15 mi81 min 48°F1017.6 hPa
46118 17 mi62 min 40°F 1022 hPa40°F
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 30 mi87 min E 1 43°F 1018 hPa43°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 30 mi27 min ESE 8 G 9.9 45°F 1017.6 hPa42°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 32 mi37 min E 3.9 G 5.8 45°F 47°F1018.3 hPa42°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 45 mi63 min SE 5.1 G 6 45°F 48°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Cherry Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA3 mi62 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist45°F44°F100%1017.3 hPa
Friday Harbor Airport, WA17 mi64 minE 710.00 miOvercast45°F43°F93%1017.8 hPa
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA19 mi64 minNE 37.00 miOvercast42°F37°F85%1018.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORS

Wind History from ORS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalm34E3CalmCalm3Calm
1 day ago4
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NE4544CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW7NW7N3NW7N8NW7NW6CalmCalmNW5NW7N5CalmCalmNW3CalmNW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE44
G12

Tide / Current Tables for Echo Bay, Sucia Islands, Strait of Georgia, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Parker Reef Light, 1 mile North of, Washington Current
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Parker Reef Light
Click for MapFlood direction 65 true
Ebb direction 265 true

Wed -- 03:49 AM PST     1.72 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:30 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:12 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:08 AM PST     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:03 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:01 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:09 PM PST     0.54 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:12 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:15 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:31 PM PST     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:14 PM PST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.91.41.71.71.30.5-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.50.500.3-0.2-0.8-1.1-1.2-1-0.8-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.