Friday, February21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Geneva, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:41PM Friday February 21, 2020 7:17 AM PST (15:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:39AMMoonset 3:39PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 225 Am Pst Fri Feb 21 2020
Today..S wind to 10 kt rising to 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..SW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. A slight chance of rain after midnight.
Sat..S wind 20 to 30 kt becoming nw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the morning then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..N wind to 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W wind 20 to 30 kt rising to 25 to 35 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..NW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming se 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tue..E wind 5 to 15 kt becoming ne. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
PZZ100 225 Am Pst Fri Feb 21 2020
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Light onshore flow will develop today. A weak front will move through the area Saturday. A stronger front and vigorous low pressure system will arrive Sunday. Onshore flow will ease Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva, WA
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location: 48.76, -122.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 211115 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 315 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. High level cloud cover will increase today, ahead of a weak cold front set to move into the area Saturday. A few light showers will be possible Saturday before a stronger system moves in on Sunday. Breezy to locally windy conditions will be possible Sunday with lowland rain and mountain snow likely. Rain and snow will gradually taper Monday, allowing for a generally benign week of weather next week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A synoptic analysis of the atmosphere this morning reveals a split-flow pattern across the CONUS and Canada. The northern stream represents a stronger belt of westerly flow across the Canadian Provinces, along with a subtle shortwave crossing the Pacific Northwest and another across the Dakotas, while the southern stream features a closed low offshore the California coast, helping advect tropical Pacific moisture into the desert SW, and an elongated area of vorticity stretching across the South. At the sfc, continued strong area of high pressure (with center pressure around 1040mb) remains the dominant feature across the majority of the CONUS.

Focusing on western Washington, another benign weather day is expected across the area. Aforementioned subtle shortwave trough will continue to push east of the area through the morning hours, with little in the way of any sensible weather impacts. In this wave's wake, the mid/upper level flow will become more zonal and heights will begin to fall. In the lower levels, a weak cold front will begin to approach the region but it and its associated precip will remain well offshore thru the afternoon. Overall today expect an increase in higher level cloud cover.

The cold front will then begin to move into the area this evening and overnight, with a projected E/SE trajectory. It appears the most substantial height falls along with the best jet dynamics will remain to the north of the area. This combined with the increasing displacement from the parent system up in Alaska/Yukon will cause the front to weaken as it crosses the area. Some light precip is still expected along the front, especially across northern and western sections of the area. Precip should fade through the day Saturday as the system further dissipates. Snow levels will generally be in the 3000-4000 ft range in the vicinity of the front, with little snowfall expected in the mountains.

Overnight Saturday and into Sunday, a much more organized area of low pressure will approach the local area. Still seeing a little discrepancy with finer details of the exact track of the low but overall guidance is becoming better aligned. The mid level low is expected to take on a slight negative tilt as it moves into Vancouver Island Sunday morning. Seeing some decent dynamics attempting to materialize on Sunday, with widespread precip in the vicinity of the warm front (associated with WAA), followed quickly by convective activity along and in the wake of the cold front. Model guidance is suggestive of mid level temps falling back to -30C, indicating the development of steep mid level lapse rates, with additional lift supplied by the advancement of the left exit of a 300mb jet streak. May need to add isolated thunder to the forecast on Sunday. In addition, winds just off the sfc will be in the 40-50kt range, indicating likely development of breezy to perhaps locally windy conditions. As if this is not enough, after the passage of the cold front Sunday afternoon/evening, snow levels plummet below 3000ft. With convective activity expected with this environment, accumulating snow (possibly heavy at times) in the mountains, especially the Cascades, is likely. This could very well cause travel impacts across the Passes- something to keep in mind if traveling this weekend.

Kovacik

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Lingering showers and mountain snow are likely to continue at least through the morning hours on Monday, tapering through the afternoon. A much more amplified pattern is expected across the CONUS Monday into Tuesday, with a ridge building along the West Coast and troughing developing across the middle of the country. This should give us at least a quick dry period overnight Monday into Tuesday. Thereafter, a weak frontal system may still be able to slide into the area and provide the potential for a few light showers into Wednesday. The ridge tries to recover on Thursday, with intent to keep the storm track to the north and provide a return to drier and warmer (mid-upper 50s?!) conditions through the remainder of the work week.

Kovacik

AVIATION. Skies are still mostly clear early this morning but there are some areas of low clouds off the south coast that might make it to Hoquiam this morning. Cirrus will increase but the air mass will remain dry and stable today. Onshore flow will eventually moisten up the air mass by daybreak on Saturday.

KSEA . A little cirrus--increasing later today. Low clouds should not arrive til around 10z Saturday, plus or minus a couple hours.

MARINE. Light onshore flow will develop today and increase tonight. A weak front will break up over the area Saturday and then a more vigorous front and low pressure system will arrive Sunday. Onshore flow will ease Monday.

HYDROLOGY. No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days. Light showers are expected on Saturday, followed by a much more organized system on Sunday. Overall rainfall amounts on Sunday will range from under half an inch in the lowlands, to 1-2 inches across the higher terrain. The heaviest precip on Sunday is likely to coincide with falling snow levels, and the onset of a more substantial snowfall across the mountains. This should prevent the threat for river flooding. As the system departs Monday and precip tapers, a return to generally dry conditions is expected through much of next week.

Kovacik

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . None. PZ . None.

www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 20 mi47 min 1023.4 hPa
CPMW1 20 mi53 min E 2.9 G 4.1 37°F
CPNW1 20 mi65 min E 2.9 G 4.1 38°F
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 21 mi47 min SSW 4.1 32°F 1023 hPa31°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 35 mi41 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 35°F 47°F1023.1 hPa
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 38 mi27 min SE 5.1 G 7 40°F 1023.1 hPa33°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 49 mi47 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 37°F 47°F1023.7 hPa

Wind History for Cherry Point South Dock, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA7 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair29°F27°F92%1024 hPa
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA20 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair32°F28°F87%1023 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLI

Wind History from BLI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalm3CalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmN6N5N5N4NE5N5N6N4CalmN3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE3N4NE7N8NE7NE7NE10N5NE3W6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bellingham, Washington
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Bellingham
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:21 AM PST     8.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:11 AM PST     6.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM PST     7.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:39 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:40 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:55 PM PST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.54.25.87.38.28.78.68.17.56.96.66.77.17.47.67.36.65.54.12.61.30.3-00.4

Tide / Current Tables for Hale Passage, 0.5 miles SE of Lummi Pt, Washington Current
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Hale Passage
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:12 AM PST     1.83 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:47 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:36 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:06 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:40 AM PST     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:56 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:55 PM PST     0.30 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:36 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:44 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:42 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:34 PM PST     -1.30 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:44 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.71.81.71.20.6-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.400.20.30.2-0.1-0.4-0.7-1-1.3-1.3-1-0.50.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.