Friday, October30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Adak, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:22AMSunset 6:04PM Friday October 30, 2020 8:19 AM AKDT (16:19 UTC) Moonrise 5:31PMMoonset 6:34AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ175 SEguam Island To Adak Bering Side- 341 Am Akdt Fri Oct 30 2020
.gale warning through tonight...
Today..N wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
Tonight..N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 23 ft.
Sat..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
Sat night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Sun..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Mon..N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Tue..W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AK
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location: 51.83, -176.62     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 301330 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 530 AM AKDT Fri Oct 30 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The pattern aloft features a shortwave trough moving through central portions of Alaska, and a broad upper low over the Aleutians. Our next weather maker, an upper trough pushing through the Chukchi Sea, can been seen approaching Northern Alaska.

At the surface, a strong occluded low is centered just south of the Aleutian Chain, bringing widespread gale and storm force winds and widespread rains to the central and eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula.

A weak low over the northern Gulf has begun to move interior this morning, and combined with the approaching shortwave is helping to bring continued scattered snow showers to the Copper River Basin.

For Southcentral Alaska, northerly flow has begun to increase which has kept conditions less foggy than we have seen over the past couple of nights. Across the southwest, offshore flow has started to increase as cold advection works in behind the departing shortwave.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are in good agreement with respect to the newly forming triple point low (from the occlusion of the Aleutian low) southeast of Kodiak Island. The southerly trends in the models appear to have come to an end, and the impacts from this system will primarily be for Kodiak and marine areas of the Gulf, as this low then looks to track towards the Alaska Panhandle and avoid the Northern Gulf Coast.

Models are also generally strong agreement on the progression of the current shortwave moving through central Alaska, as well as a quickly following shortwave just now pushing into Northern Alaska, which will serve to re- enforce the cold airmass across much of the region this weekend, and aid in enhancing gap/coastal winds. This model agreement helps to bolster confidence in the notably cold/windy forecast ahead.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Some occasional lower ceilings are possible early this morning but then good confidence on fairly rapid clearing after sunrise, with increasing northerly flow/cold advection.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3. Friday through Sunday) .

We will continue to dig deeper and deeper into our cold and mostly dry pattern over the coming days. The biggest story remains the upcoming gusty winds, especially in the gaps along the coast. First, for this morning, a shortwave trough is clipping through the area from the north. This feature has produced just enough lift and tapped into enough moisture to produce some light snow overnight across parts of the Copper River Basin. Some very light snow is also moving through Palmer and Wasilla, so motorists should use caution on their morning commute. A few flurries even made it into Anchorage. Snow will taper off quickly for all locations except the Copper River Basin. The shortwave will linger through that area and accumulations could approach an inch by later today.

A weak frontal system is moving through the Southern Gulf of AK and will track along Kodiak Island. This feature will divide the island into two regimes with the north side featuring cold with some snow showers while the south side sees much warmer with moderate rain. Kodiak City will be right on the border between the two. It looks like right now there will be enough onshore flow off the water to warm temperatures and cause a rain/snow mix (vs all snow). This should significantly limit accumulations at sea level. However, at higher elevations, several inches of accumulation will remain possible.

All attention then shifts towards an Arctic Airmass dropping in from the north late Sat into Sun. This will be the coldest airmass without question since last winter. 850 mb (5,000') temperatures will approach -20 Celsius Sun and drop further to -25C by Mon. The cold air will abut the (still) very warm air over the marine waters leading to an impressive thermal gradient. A potent upper level low will accompany this airmass and will aid in the development of very strong outflow winds in some locales. At this time, the most likely locations to experience these gusty conditions look to be the Matanuska Valley, Thompson Pass down into Valdez, Whittier, and Seward. We will keep a close eye on the details of this system in the coming days and weigh the potential for a High Wind Watch (75 mph or greater). Due to the depth of the cold air, there will also be the shot of some passing snow showers as it moves into Southcentral. However, the airmass will be quite dry, so these would be confined primarily to the mountains.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Sunday) .

At the onset of the forecast period, expect widespread northerly flow. There is an arctic low north of the Brooks Range that will dive southward today and tomorrow. There is not a lot of moisture with this polar system but flurries are possible. The biggest impact will be the intrusion of arctic air with some locations dipping below 0 degree Fahrenheit and the chances of afternoon temperatures getting above freezing is slim. Light freezing spray is possible for portions of the Kuskokwim Bay and Bristol Bay.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Sunday) .

There is a North Pacific cyclone south of the Aleutians and the surface low is 973mb. The pressure gradient with system spans from Attu Island to Pilot Point. Early this morning ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) data pinged into gale and storm force winds. This low will move south-eastward taking the worst of the winds into the high seas on Saturday. However, another low will with a magnitude of 990mb will move towards Shemya. Expect a lull in the winds and then it will get progressively gusty late Sat and Sunday. This surface low also has a surface track south of the chain.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5) Sunday through Tuesday.

Widespread easterly small craft winds and waves extend from the Alaska Peninsula along the Aleutians, with local gale force winds over the Western Aleutians. While track and development of the system are mixed, the winds diminish and drift into the North Pacific through Tue. An upper level disturbance brings northerly small craft winds over the Eastern Bering and Bristol Bay for Mon and Tue, with gustier winds near capes and channeled terrain.

For the Gulf, a weakening low over the Northern Gulf lingers through Tue. Though the track and development vary between models, northerly small craft increase to gale force Mon around Kodiak Island, and become westerly extending into the Northern Gulf, diminishing Tue. A second axis of small craft with local gale force winds off the Alaska Peninsula spread over the Southern Gulf for Tue.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7).

The main weather story moving through the weekend and into next week will be the intrusion of arctic air across the Southern Mainland in the wake of a vigorous surface low moving from the western Gulf to the Alaska Panhandle. The core of the coldest air looks to arrive on Monday as the polar upper-level low settles over Southcentral. 850 mb temperatures (~4500ft AGL) look to plummet to -18 to -20C across interior Southwest and over the Anchorage Bowl and Kenai Peninsula. The Copper River Basin could see 850 mb temperatures fall to -22 to -25C. This would translate to highs struggling to climb into the teens to lower 20s for most locations not immediately along the northern Gulf coast by early next week. Daytime highs for parts of the Copper River Basin during this time could remain near zero. Needless to say, low temperatures would likely be in the single digits for most areas and well below zero for the Copper River Basin and normally colder locations like sheltered valleys.

Gusty outflow winds will also remain a potential along the immediate coast through next week due to the build up of colder air inland and a lingering gradient between an interior ridge and trough along the coast. Models, however, are indicating that one or more compact, meso-lows could spin up at the surface over the northern Gulf due to the interaction of the upper-level dynamics and the increased surface winds and thermal gradient. If this does happen, there could be additional cloud cover that could help moderate temperatures nearer the coast and also bring about an increased chance for snow showers through early next week.

Farther to the west, a ridge of high pressure will build over the western Aleutians and expand east by next week. Multiple shortwaves diving south between the ridge and the aforementioned polar low to the east will allow for clouds, snow showers, and gusty northerly winds to persist from the central Bering to the Southwest Alaska coast.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning: 170 173 174. Gale Warning: 132 138 150 160 165 171 172 175-180. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BG SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MSO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . PJS MARINE/LONG TERM . MTL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ADKA2 - 9461380 - Adak Island, AK 2 mi49 min NNE 21 G 33 42°F 1002.2 hPa

Wind History for Adak Island, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Adak Island, Adak Airport, AK4 mi23 minN 24 G 383.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Windy42°F39°F92%1002.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADK

Wind History from ADK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW3CalmW4SW5SW4--S3E4E6E6E6SE5CalmE8E11E16E16E16E22
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2 days agoCalmW6SW4W8W11W11W6W10W10W9W7W5W4W5W3SW5SW5CalmSW7SW5W11W9W10W7

Tide / Current Tables for Finger Bay, Kuluk Bay, Adak Island, Alaska
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Finger Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 08:07 AM HDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:34 AM HDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:38 AM HDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:19 AM HDT     2.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:10 PM HDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:20 PM HDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:30 PM HDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.61.92.22.42.62.72.72.72.72.72.72.833.13.13.12.92.62.31.81.41.2

Tide / Current Tables for Clam Lagoon, Kuluk Bay, Adak Island, Alaska
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Clam Lagoon
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:04 AM HDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:34 AM HDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:21 AM HDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:39 AM HDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:31 PM HDT     2.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:24 PM HDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:20 PM HDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:29 PM HDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.11.11.11.31.51.71.922.12.12.12.12.12.12.22.42.42.42.32.21.91.71.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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