Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Adak, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A front from a low is passing through the Southwest mainland, which is bringing gusty winds and snowfall to particularly the Kuskokwim Delta. Winds are slowly dropping off as the front passes through with lingering snowfall. A warmer air mass is behind the front, so temperatures will rise and may warm above freezing in Bristol Bay, so precipitation there may become a rain/snow mix.
However, the Kuskokwim Delta is expected to stay below freezing, so any lingering precipitation will be in the form of snowfall.
Meanwhile, a low in the Bering north of Shemya is bringing a large swath of gusty winds to the Aleutian Islands. Winds are up to gale force in strength. Monday has winds become light in the mainland. There may be some lingering light snow showers in the Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley from the same low that brought the front. The Bering also has conditions improving as the low moves southeast and weakens. A ridge builds behind into the Western Aleutians, so lower chances for precipitation and lower wind speeds are expected.

Tuesday has the same low still hanging around off the Kuskokwim Delta coast finally drop south. Some small craft winds off the coast and breezy winds inland are expected in the Kuskokwim Delta.
Small craft winds will also move into the Alaska Peninsula region with some precipitation as well. Another frontal system moves into the Bering from the west. A line of precipitation with gale force winds will move into the Western Aleutians Tuesday morning, reaching the Pribilof Islands and the Eastern Aleutians by Wednesday morning. The frontal system will reach the mainland by Wednesday afternoon, allowing for some snowfall. Behind the front is warm air advection and weak flow, which means light winds and showery precipitation in the Bering.

-JAR

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Over the second half of next week a western Bering trough will slide across the Aleutians Thursday into Friday, eventually crossing over into the Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. Gusty westerly winds from small craft to gales are anticipated from Adak to Unalaska with what looks to be minimal impacts at this time. The bigger story will entail a North Pacific low lifting into the Western and Central Aleutians over the weekend. Deterministic models and ensemble guidance are loosely in agreement with bringing a ~940 to sub 940 mb low across the Aleutians into the Bering Saturday into Sunday. While confidence in the track and intensity are extremely low, impacts from the forecast low's track would include strong winds, potentially high winds, Saturday and Sunday over the Western and Central Aleutians.

For Southwest and Southcentral Alaska seasonably cool temperatures are forecast. The passage of one or two weaker troughs through interior Alaska will support above normal chances for precipitation.

BL



AVIATION

PANC...Low stratus and fog are expected to be in and out of the terminal through Monday morning, likely changing over from VFR to LIFR as the fog/stratus moves in and out of the airport. Upper level clouds moving overhead should begin to mitigate fog and stratus development tomorrow after sunrise. Winds will remain light and variable, predominately out of the north.