Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Attu Station, AK

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Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 6:40PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 2:22 AM ChST (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:58PMMoonset 9:49AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ176 SEguam Island To Adak Pacific Side- 353 Am Akdt Tue Aug 20 2019
.small craft advisory through Wednesday...
Today..E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Wed..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Wed night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Thu through Sat..N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Attu Station, AK
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location: 52.84, 173.2     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 201300
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
500 am akdt Tue aug 20 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A broad upper level trough persists across much of eastern alaska,
including southcentral. An upper level shortwave disturbance is
moving southward across southwest alaska this evening. This is
producing some light rain along the kuskokwim delta coast, but
relatively little in the way of precipitation is reaching the
ground anywhere else associated with this feature. Fog and low
stratus is slowly beginning to refill the skies above the eastern
bering, with st. Paul recently returning under the cloud cover. A
vertically stacked low centered well south of the western and
central aleutians is causing high end small-crafts to near gale-
force winds across the islands this morning.

The ongoing primary weather story across southcentral continues to
be smoke issues from the various fires across the area. Anchorage
international remains the most consistently bad site as far as
smoke density goes, with regular visibility reductions below 2
miles overnight. Most other sites outside of anchorage proper
stayed at 4 miles and above with the exception of talkeetna, which
had reduced visibilities due to smoke from the mckinley fire.

Model discussion
Large-scale model agreement remains excellent this morning through
the short-term forecast. The models all have a good handle on the
track and intensity of a low as it tracks east and becomes a
triple-point low as it forms in the gulf by Thursday. The overall
weather pattern farther north across mainland alaska is generally
quiet and non-eventful, so there's not much of the models to
disagree on. Differences and challenges continue to be local-scale
weather issues, such as forecasting smoke movement and density,
which is always a challenge, the timing of wind-shifts associated
with smoke movement, and when southcentral gets its next round of
rain.

Aviation
Panc... MVFR visibilities around the airport this morning are
expected to very gradually improve through the day. Winds
throughout the lower atmosphere will remain at 5 knots or less,
but will gradually shift from southerly now to northwesterly by
this evening. This will gradually shift the smoke which is largely
from the swan lake fire south out of the area during the evening
and overnight hours, improving visibilities. Winds will remain
light and variable at the surface with eitherVFR or no ceilings
expected.

Fire weather (southcentral)
The primary changing weather factor for fires across southern
alaska will be the winds, as relative humidity values will only
very slowly rise the next several days, and there is very little,
if any, chance of rain until Friday. Temperatures will remain
fairly steady the next several days as well with highs in the 60s
and lows in the 40s. Wind speeds will be nearly calm most of the
time, but winds in the low-to-mid levels will gradually shift
across southcentral from southerly over to northwesterly by
tonight. This should help direct swan lake fire smoke towards the
south and east towards seward, and improve air quality and
visibility conditions around anchorage. However, due to fires
ongoing across the susitna valley, it may not completely clear all
of the smoke.

On Wednesday evening, easterly winds are expected to develop
through the gaps, particularly turnagain arm. Gap winds through
kenai lake and cooper landing could impact fire conditions at
that time at the swan lake fire. The winds will persist through
the day on Thursday. Isolated to widely scattered shower activity
is possible in the mountains this afternoon and evening as well.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3 today
through Thursday night)...

a short-wave trough over southwest alaska will track eastward into
the western gulf today, bringing some light rain to kodiak island.

A weaker and broader trough will cross the rest of southcentral.

However, with a dry airmass in place expect no more than some
isolated to scattered mountain showers. Low level flow will be
weak, which means smoke will remain entrenched across the kenai
peninsula, anchorage, and the mat-su. As the trough passes by this
afternoon through tonight, the predominate low level flow will
become northwesterly. This should lead to improving visibilities
in anchorage as the bulk of smoke from the swan lake fire heads
south and east across the interior kenai peninsula and toward the
gulf coast. Still, the flow is not nearly strong enough to clear
out all of the smoke and smoke could also drift southward from the
fires in the susitna valley.

Dry weather will continue across southcentral on Wednesday in the
wake of the upper trough. After slightly cooler temperatures today
from clouds and smoke, will warm up a few degrees Wednesday,
especially areas where the smoke is not very thick and sunshine
can make it through. As we head to Thursday a storm system
tracking along the aleutians will shift into the gulf. While some
showers may make it to the north gulf coast, it looks like the
bulk of moisture and dynamics with this system will remain over
the gulf. There will be a shift in low level winds out ahead of
this system beginning Wednesday night, with winds becoming
easterly across the kenai peninsula. Depending on fire activity,
this could send more smoke from the swan lake fire back up to
anchorage.

Meanwhile, another upper level trough will drop out of the
arctic, with clouds gradually increasing across southcentral
Thursday through Thursday night. While there is some uncertainty
in the track and amplitude of this trough, it will bring a chance
of rain to southcentral by Thursday night.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
A trough continues to push southward along the bering coast, with
its axis stretching roughly from nunivak island to bristol bay.

Offshore flow will persist over the kuskokwim valley and delta
behind the trough, and with clearing skies expect temperatures
today to trend considerably warmer than yesterday. In the bristol
bay area into the alaska range, conditions will trend cooler and
wetter than yesterday as the trough shifts overhead. The trough
will diminish Wednesday, and expect warmer, drier conditions
Wednesday and Thursday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
An occluded front ahead of a weakening north pacific low remains
stretched over the western aleutians, bringing precipitation and
gusty east winds high seas. A triple point low will develop south
of dutch harbor early Wednesday, enhancing precipitation in the
eastern aleutians. A secondary low forming at the triple point
will develop early Wednesday, enhancing precipitation over the
eastern aleutians. The low should exit to the south Thursday
leaving generally dry conditions and broad north flow.

Fire weather (southwest alaska)
Several fires continue to burn actively in the greater bristol
bay area, including the levelock fire and a fire near port
alsworth. Smoke will continue at the surface in the vicinity and
downwind of active fires; however, an upper trough and associated
cold front passing over the area will improve mixing and possibly
bring wetting rain. So, took smoke out of the forecast past 18z
this morning, but it may need to be added in for Wednesday,
depending on fire activity.

Marine (days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)
A gale force low centered over the gulf Thursday afternoon tracks
eastward by Friday evening. Behind that low, there is high
confidence that a disturbance forms south of the alaska peninsula
Friday evening, however there is low confidence in the strength
and track of the system at this time. By Saturday afternoon, north
to northwesterly flow will likely create gusty conditions through
the usual gaps and passes along the alaska peninsula. Meanwhile,
a ridge of high pressure remains in place over the western bering
for the weekend.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)
The main feature in the extended forecast includes an upper level
trough in place over much of the state, translating into
unsettled weather. By early Friday morning, a low in the gulf
continues moving eastward. Behind it, several upper level waves
traverse the southern half of the state, bringing cloudy skies and
precipitation, with northerly flow expected in this pattern.

Meanwhile farther west, a ridge builds over the western bering for
the weekend. Behind the ridge, a north pacific low travels south
of the aleutian chain, approaching the gulf of alaska by late
Monday, though models remain in disagreement on the strength and
timing of this low.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Dense smoke advisory: 121.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jpw
southcentral alaska... Seb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mm
marine long term... Ko


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Massacre Bay, Attu Island, Alaska
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Massacre Bay
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Tue -- 12:40 AM HDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:34 AM HDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:17 AM HDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:59 AM HDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:48 PM HDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:58 PM HDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:31 PM HDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:42 PM HDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.11.81.51.31.31.51.71.92.12.22.11.91.61.31.111.11.41.72.22.52.72.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chichagof Harbor, Attu Island, Alaska
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Chichagof Harbor
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Tue -- 12:40 AM HDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:50 AM HDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:17 AM HDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:12 AM HDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:48 PM HDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:14 PM HDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:42 PM HDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:44 PM HDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.42.11.71.51.41.51.82.12.32.42.42.21.81.51.21.11.11.41.82.22.62.93

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.