Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Attu Station, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 5:58PM Wednesday October 23, 2019 10:01 AM ChST (00:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:50PMMoonset 2:36PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ176 SEguam Island To Adak Pacific Side- 333 Pm Akdt Tue Oct 22 2019
.small craft advisory through Wednesday night...
Tonight..NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Wed..W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Wed night..W wind 25 kt becoming sw 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
Thu..SE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Thu night..SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
Fri..S wind 30 kt. Seas 29 ft.
Sat..E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
Sun..W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Attu Station, AK
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location: 52.84, 173.2     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 221639 cca
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service anchorage ak
839 am akdt Tue oct 22 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level low which has been anchored in the central bering
is now starting to drift slowly south. Numerous shortwaves
continue to rotate around the periphery of the broad low with
several open waves pushing south through the western bering and
over the western and central aleutians. An upper level trough
with an associated surface low is located just to the south of
the eastern aleutians and western alaska peninsula, with another
upper trough and surface low near nunivak island. Weak troughing
extends into the southwestern gulf with ridging building into the
central and eastern gulf following the low pressure system
tracking inland into british columbia. The next incoming storm is
in the process of spinning up well to the south of the eastern
aleutians.

Model discussion
Models have come into good agreement regarding the track and
strength of the very strong low moving north towards the alaska
peninsula and bristol bay area tonight through Wednesday. This is
also the case with the rather powerful north pacific low tracking
in from the west to the south of the aleutians Thursday.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday
morning. Easterly winds across the chugach mountains and through
turnagain arm will increase rapidly tonight through Wednesday
morning. While a northerly gradient down cook inlet is expected
to keep the stronger surface winds bent away from the terminal,
wind shear due to stronger easterly winds aloft will be a
potential concern.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3: today
through Thursday)...

a strong low will begin to track east of the kenai peninsula this
evening. Easterly winds will rapidly increase Wednesday morning
across coastal areas along prince william sound as well as the
whitter region and turnagain arm. The turnagain arm area is
expected to peak late Wed morning at around 60 mph with gusts
near 70 mph. Gusty northeasterly winds around 30 mph are also
likely in the matanuska valley at the same time. Periods of heavy
rain are expected along the associated front. However the mat-su
valleys, anchorage and the western kenai will be heavily
downsloped in cross barrier flow and thus precipitation will be
limited in those areas.

As the low moves onshore in SW ak Wednesday afternoon, it will
become vertically stacked and begin to slowly weaken. However,
strong southerly winds on the eastern side of the circulation will
continue to advect moisture northward into the seward area, which
could see up to 2" of rain through early Thursday morning. Winds
will likewise diminish over the same time period. As such, areas
that were originally downsloped could begin to see light showers
by the afternoon.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Drying conditions and weak winds will persist through the first
half of today across the southwest before a pattern change moves
in later this afternoon. A strengthening north pacific low will
make its first impact to interior bristol bay this afternoon into
the early evening hours. Strong northeasterly winds and widespread
precipitation will accompany this system as it continues its path
northward towards the lower kuskokwim valley and delta for
Wednesday. Precipitation associated with this low should fall as
rain for most locations, with the exception to locations in the
kuskokwim delta that may have cold enough temperatures to start
off as snow. This will quickly transition to rain once the warmer
air moves in. As the systems begins to move eastward on Thursday,
precipitation begins to taper off through the afternoon hours,
leaving only a few lingering showers across the region. Winds
will also begin to weaken, switching over to a north-northwesterly
flow as the low continues to exit the area.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The area of low pressure near the pribilofs will continue to
weaken through the afternoon hours, while small craft northerly
flow remains over the central and western bering through Wednesday.

This afternoon will see its first impacts from the north pacific
low that is quickly deepening as it makes its way towards the
akpen. Gale force winds will move into areas south of the akpen
and into bristol bay starting this afternoon as the low's center
continues to move over chignik in the overnight hours. Winds will
increase to storm-force on the south side of this low center
later tonight and through Wednesday evening. Wave heights will
quickly increase to between 25 and 30 feet in the coastal waters,
with up to nearly 40 foot seas southwest of kodiak island. As
the flow becomes northerly over the eastern bering Wednesday
morning, winds will increase to gale-force for much of the day
before weakening to small crafts through Thursday morning.

The next potential storm-force low system begins to enter the
western aleutians and bering on Thursday morning. See the marine
and long term discussions for more details on this system.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
For the gulf side, the main concern on Thursday is with the
progression of a low across the gulf. Models vary on the track of
the low resulting in differences of northwest winds near the
barren islands ranging from gale force to light winds. Currently a
more northerly low track seems more favorable resulting in small
craft winds through the barrens, but confidence is low.

The focus then shifts to a system approaching the western
aleutians Thursday. There is high confidence with this system
being storm force into Friday. Confidence diminishes over the
weekend as the low moves into the bering and the models diverge
with its track.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term, beginning on Thursday, has one low exiting the
gulf and a new low approaching the western aleutians from the
north pacific. The north pacific low is bringing a long fetch of
warm air and moisture with it. As the low tracks east on Friday,
ridging will build in over the southern mainland. On Saturday the
ridge will block the progression of the low and the low will start
to track north into the bering. Model confidence is low with how
the low will move into the bering, however there is high
confidence of an atmospheric river setting up between the low and
the ridge. Models are also starting to converge on a more western
setup of the atmospheric river which places it closer to the
alaska peninsula.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Storm warning 119 131 132 138 150 155.

Gale warning 120 125 129 130 136 137 139 140 141 160 165 170
172 180 181 414.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jer
southcentral alaska... Ap
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ah
marine long term... Dk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Massacre Bay, Attu Island, Alaska
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Massacre Bay
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Tue -- 02:28 AM HDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM HDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:06 AM HDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:52 PM HDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:36 PM HDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:51 PM HDT     2.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM HDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:13 PM HDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.41.81.20.60.1-0.2-0.200.51.11.72.22.62.82.92.82.72.62.62.62.82.93

Tide / Current Tables for Chichagof Harbor, Attu Island, Alaska
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Chichagof Harbor
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Tue -- 02:28 AM HDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:48 AM HDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:06 AM HDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 03:05 PM HDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:36 PM HDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:07 PM HDT     2.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM HDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:26 PM HDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.72.11.50.80.2-0.2-0.3-0.10.411.72.32.83.13.13.132.92.82.933.13.2

Weather Map
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Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Anderson AFB, Guam
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.